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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 2/3/2026 vs. Miami Heat

by Spencer Toth - 2/3/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Miami Heat Zaccharie Risacher

You have found the right place for all your NBA betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Atlanta Hawks weekday game this season while providing free best bets. We are up more than 30 units so far this season, but the job is far from over as the NBA All-Star break is rapidly approaching. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Saturday night, the Atlanta Hawks fell to the lowly Indiana Pacers 129-124. Jalen Johnson stuffed the stat sheet with a 33-point triple-double, while Zaccharie Risacher made his return from injury after missing the last three weeks. Atlanta’s defense generated 23 turnovers, which should have put them in pole position to win if it weren’t for the Pacers 51-39 advantage on the glass. Indiana’s respectable home form continued, as the Hawks dropped to within one game of the 11th-place Hornets for the final spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. 

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. We whiffed on the Hawks' (-1.5) point spread, while the two teams flew over the 232.5 total by more than 20 points. Our lone winner on the evening was Risacher to go over 2.5 rebounds in his return, which he did despite playing just 22 minutes. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (24-27) take a trip to Florida to take on the Miami Heat (27-24). Miami is three games ahead of the Hawks with 31 games remaining in the regular season, making this a crucial matchup for both teams. Miami has started to get healthy with all of their players, other than Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier, ready to suit up tonight. This has allowed them to build momentum, as the pesky Heat are in 7th place, and just three games back of 4th in the conference. 

Miami is a unique team in the NBA, as there isn’t a squad that plays more exciting basketball than the Heat. They play at the fastest pace in the league, they are second in rebounds, and they will up the tempo whenever they get an opportunity to. Herro is their primary facilitator, but with him on the bench, Miami’s scoring will be much more balanced regardless of what five-man rotation is on the court. 

Before we get into how the Hawks match up with the Heat, there is a trade that went down over the weekend. This one isn’t going to make the front page, but it signals the direction Atlanta is going in this year… and it’s not promising. The Hawks traded Vit Krejci to the Portland Trail Blazers for Doup Reath and two second-round picks. Reath is injured and will not play again this season. And while this is a great trade for the Hawks' future, it isn’t one that will help them this year. Krejci had fallen down the rotation, so it won’t be devastating for Atlanta, but he was still a valuable role player who could light it up off the bench. 

While Krejci is gone, the Hawks are still as strong as ever with Risacher returning last game, and Kristaps Porzingis set to also return from a long injury tonight. The Hawks frontcourt has been very shallow in recent weeks, as Porzingis has only played 17 games for Atlanta this season, and just five since November 25th. His impact on both ends is noticeable, and his return to the lineup couldn’t have come at a better time with Onyeka Okongwu out with a dental fracture for tonight. Otherwise, the Hawks are healthy, and this is the perfect measuring stick to see where a healthy Hawks side measures up against a disciplined Heat team. 

This game will be won or lost on the inside. Bam Adebayo is the best player for Miami, and his ability to dominate the paint is something the Hawks will have to watch out for. Mouhamed Gueye isn’t strong enough to handle Adebayo alone in the post, but his lanky frame should be able to control the glass enough to give the Hawks a fighting chance. Miami’s second-most rebounds in the league are inflated due to their fast pace of play, as they are actually a bang-average side in terms of rebounding percentages. Gueye and Porzingis will have their work cut out for them, as the Heat can also run two-big lineups with Kel’el Ware getting into the rotation alongside Adebayo. 

On the outside, the Hawks will need to be the better team if they hope to win this one. Norman Powell was named to the All-Star team in the East and will play alongside Johnson in a few weeks. Powell’s electric offense from behind the arc saw him undergo a career revitalization in Miami, and he has taken over with Herro still on the sidelines. Dyson Daniels will be all over him defensively, which should allow the Hawks to emerge with more threes tonight. Miami doesn’t do a good job at shutting down deep-ball threats, and the Hawks have no shortage of shooters ready to fire it off from behind the arc.
For the first bet of the night, we will tell the bookie to keep the points and take the Hawks moneyline at +135. Atlanta has been solid on the road this year, going 15-13 away from State Farm Arena, and is undervalued with odds like these. Porzingis and Risacher coming back from injury are both huge additions for a thin Hawks starting five, and this is the type of game the Hawks have been able to win over the years. Miami isn’t the defensive powerhouse under Erik Spoelstra that it once was, and the Hawks' consistent three-point shooting will eventually allow them to build a lead. 

For the second bet of the night, we will keep the deep ball angle going with Jalen Johnson over 1.5 threes at -120 odds. Johnson will likely be matched up against Ware or Adebayo when the Heat run a two-big lineup, which will incentivize him to get into open space. Johnson has scored at least two threes in five of his last seven games, scoring 3+ in four of those contests. This matchup is a good one for him to get going from deep, and the -120 odds are a great option for tonight. 

Finally, we will take Zaccharie Risacher to stay under 1.5 threes at -125 odds. Risacher is still coming off an injury, he could have a minutes restriction, and it is surprising to see his line here considering his shooting woes this year. He has only cleared this line in three of his last ten, and has been looking to get inside more often as of late. Unless he jacks up 5+ attempts in only 20 or so minutes of action, this under should be safe. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline +135 2 Units

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 1.5 Threes -120 3 Units

Pick: Zaccharie Risacher Under 1.5 Threes -125 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 10-5

Spread: 16-16

Total: 2-9

Player Props: 34-19

Overall: 63-48

Total Units: Up 32.6 Units 

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