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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 3/10/2026 vs. Dallas Mavericks

by Spencer Toth - 3/10/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Dallas Mavericks Jonathan Kuminga

All year long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down each Atlanta Hawks weekday game while providing best bets along the way. Through a consistent analysis of the ever-changing Hawks roster, combined with a deep knowledge of the NBA, we have been able to churn more than 45 units of profit so far this season. There is one month left before the playoffs get underway, and there is still time to add to that total with today’s free picks. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Hawks won their fifth game in a row with their 131-113 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Hawks overcame an early 16-point deficit against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks but rallied in the second and third quarters to take a 9-point lead into the fourth. All five starters scored at least 14 points each with a +/- of +14 or better. It was a well-rounded offensive showing from the Hawks, as they have finally started to find their groove after a lengthy injury report for most of the season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored a team-high 23 points, while Dyson Daniels had a great game with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks. 

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Hawks were a surprising underdog against the Bucks, and we unloaded the clip with a 5-unit bet on their +100 moneyline. We lost three units on Ryan Rollins to stay under 16.5 points + rebounds, as he played a team-high 35 minutes and finished with a 13-8-12 stat line in the loss. 

The Hawks went on to win a sixth straight game on Saturday night, erasing another double-digit first-quarter deficit in their 125-116 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. It was a massive win as they jockey for seeding in the Eastern Conference, as the ninth-place Hawks are now one and a half games back of the eighth-place 76ers. Jalen Johnson exploded for 35 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in the win, as the Hawks took advantage of a short-handed 76ers side to pull off the win and cover. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (33-31) have a real shot at extending their win streak to seven, as they host the Dallas Mavericks (21-43) at State Farm Arena. The Mavericks have had a nightmare season this year, as injuries, trades, and outside noise have kept them far from the playoff race. Cooper Flagg has played well during his rookie year, but it has been incredibly difficult to build momentum during a tumultuous season. However, there is renewed hope for Dallas, as their injury report is now clean outside of Kyrie Irving’s and Dereck Lively’s long-term ailments. Flagg will be a problem for Atlanta on both ends of the court, while Naji Marshall, PJ Washington, Brandon Williams, and Max Christie have all had improved seasons in increased roles due to other injuries. There is no shortage of shooters on the Mavericks roster; the issue is that they have Ryan Nembhard leading the team with 4.7 assists per night despite playing just 18.2 minutes this season. They are 24th in the NBA in assists this season, as they struggle to move the ball. A hungry Hawks defense, which happens to lead the league in assists on the other end of the court, will be a real problem for the Mavericks in this matchup. 

There was plenty of optimism around the Hawks heading into the season, but this side is now unrecognizable from the unit 12 months ago. Only Risacher, Daniels, Okongwu, and Gueye remain from the side Atlanta rolled out at this time last year. Johnson has returned from his injury and is in the running for Most Improved Player this year. Trae Young is a distant memory, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s development has been remarkable. Once you couple that with CJ McCollum and Jonathan Kuminga’s offensive potential, there is suddenly renewed hope that the Hawks can find legitimate success this year. Their recent win streak has gotten them right back in the playoff race, and four straight home games against the Mavericks, Nets, Bucks, and Magic give them a real shot at clawing back more ground. 

In this specific matchup, the Hawks will look to overwhelm Dallas on the outside. They have numerous guards capable of making them pay from behind the arc, as the Mavericks struggle to close out in the open floor. They generate the 27th-most steals in the league, while the Hawks do a great job at protecting the basketball. Daniels, Alexander-Walker, and McCollum are all poised to dominate on the outside, while Jalen Johnson will do his usual dirty work down low. The Hawks excel at crashing the glass from the guard position, which is another defensive issue for the Mavericks. Klay Thompson, Nembhard, and Williams all struggle to close out, which gives us our first player prop of the night: Dyson Daniels over 6.5 rebounds. Daniels has been a menace on the glass lately, collecting 7+ rebounds in six of his last eight games and 10+ in two of those contests. Considering how vulnerable the Mavericks are to guards who prioritize rebounds, Daniels is poised for a big game in that department. We will also sprinkle on 10+ rebounds at +450 odds, but the majority of your wager should be on the 6.5 number. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take Onyeka Okongwu to score over 1.5 threes at -130 odds. Okongwu has been very active behind the arc recently, sinking multiple triples in six of his last ten, including a 7-for-12 night against the Trail Blazers a week ago. Jonathan Kuminga’s return from injury should allow him to drift behind the arc on offense, and he will not hesitate to join in on the three-point barrage tonight. 

Finally, we won’t touch the nine-point spread, but we will sprinkle on the Hawks moneyline at -350 odds. I don’t take props at this kind of price very often, but it would be a real shock if the Hawks drop this game. They have done a great job at rallying against weaker teams during their recent win streak, and I expect Quin Snyder to emphasize getting off to a hot start against Dallas. The Hawks cannot afford to continue to dig themselves into early holes, and this is the perfect spot to get going early against a struggling defense. 

Pick: Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 Rebounds 5 Units

Pick: Dyson Daniels 10+ Rebounds +450 1 Unit

Pick: Onyeka Okongwu Over 1.5 Threes -130 2 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -360 4 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 12-6

Spread: 17-17

Total: 3-10

Player Props: 40-22

Overall: 73-54

Total Units: Up 46.7 Units 

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