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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 4/18/2026 vs. New York Knicks Game 1

by Spencer Toth - 4/15/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs New York Knicks Onyeka Okongwu

The playoffs are here. After five years of running this column, we put together our best regular season record yet with a 108-71 record to net a profit of 89.4 units, including juice. We have broken down every Atlanta Hawks game this season, and it all comes down to this. While the playoffs are exciting, it isn’t the time to start bumping up your unit size, risking a season of profits in a few weeks. Consistent, positive results are how we got here, and that game plan doesn’t change as the stakes get raised. 

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The Hawks finished the season 46-36 to clinch the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, avoiding the play-in tournament for the first time in four years. Atlanta had become a mainstay in the play-in, and it looked as though they might miss out on the tournament altogether when they started the season 26-30. However, they went 19-3 out of the All-Star break to climb up to fifth before eventually finishing in sixth as they lost three of their final four games. 

Their activity in the trade market instantly reaped rewards. They traded away Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kennard in the middle of the year, getting Jonathan Kuminga, CJ McCollum, and Jock Landale in return. A retooled roster combined with rapidly improving play from their remaining players transformed the Hawks into a legitimate playoff contender in a wide-open Eastern Conference. Dyson Daniels won Most Improved Player last year, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker being the frontrunner for the award this year, with Jalen Johnson not far behind. The Hawks have been crafty in the trade market, promoted internal development, and now have the chance to knock off one of the most historic and well-loved franchises in the league. 

In Game 1, the Atlanta Hawks (46-36) take on the New York Knicks (53-29) in the 3 vs. 6 matchup in the Eastern Conference. These two teams have been bitter rivals for the last five years after Trae Young shushed the MSG crowd during their 4-1 series win in 2021. The Knicks have the chance for revenge in 2026 and come in as –275 favorites to advance in the closest playoff series of the first round. Only Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu remain from the 2021 Hawks, although neither saw much time on the court in that series, while the Knicks' roster has completely turned over in the last five years. 

There is plenty of history between these two teams, but the only thing that matters is what happens going forward. New York edged the Hawks 2-1 in the season series, but the Hawks had a +6 point differential across those three games. The road team won all three matchups, indicating that this matchup couldn’t be closer. 

If the Hawks hope to win this game and stay competitive in the rest of the series, there are two things they need to do. 

The first is shutting down Jalen Brunson. Brunson is the leading scorer for New York, who gets even better when the bright lights of MSG shine down on him, and the Hawks will need to limit his impact in the scoring department. Dyson Daniels is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, and his matchup against Brunson will be electric. 

The second thing the Hawks need to do is contain the Knicks’ physicality. Onyeka Okongwu, Jock Landale, and Mouhammed Gueye all have their strengths, but none of them are big and physical options at center. Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson will use their size on the inside to score and control rebounds, giving the Knicks' offense crucial extra possessions. Those two matchups will determine how the Hawks fare in this game and series. 

On the bright side, Atlanta has advantages of their own on the offensive end. Brunson is a real liability on defense, and when he inevitably gets 35+ minutes of action on a nightly basis, the Hawks will learn how to exploit his defensive shortcomings. New York struggles to shut down efficient three-point shooting teams, and the Hawks fall firmly in that category. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is having a breakout year, and he will have the green light to hoist up 10+ attempts each night. McCollum is also dangerous from deep, while Johnson and Okongwu can both shoot the three-ball. Atlanta will want to spread the floor as often as possible against the Knicks, taking advantage of whoever is matched up with Brunson each possession. Even defensive wizard Dyson Daniels has started to come to life in recent weeks, meaning Brunson will be unable to hide on the defensive end. 

This has all the makings of a very intense series, and we will undoubtedly hear the crowd raining down “F*** Trae Young” from the opening tip-off. Even with Young no longer with the Hawks, the rivalry between these two teams is as heated as ever, and a physical first-round playoff matchup will only add fuel to the fire.
In Game 1, the point spread is sitting at five points in favor of the Knicks, with the Hawks coming in with a +180 moneyline. We won’t be touching the moneyline in Game 1, but we will take the points with the Hawks on the spread. Both of the Knicks' previous wins over Atlanta this year have come by a single possession, and a pair of well-rested teams will not give up an inch. The Hawks match up nicely against the Knicks, and I was happy to see them draw New York over Cleveland for that exact reason. They are capable of making every game close with New York, and getting a line like this in Game 1 makes the Hawks the way to go. 

For the first player prop, we have no choice but to continue to hope the Hawks turn this one into a shooting contest and take both CJ McCollum's and Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s three-point props. Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby are all excellent wing defenders, but I expect these two to rotate onto Brunson as often as possible and punish New York from behind the arc. The Knicks' interior defense is consistent, which has me going for the three-point props over the standard point lines. We can get -120 odds on McCollum to go over 2.5 threes and +110 odds on Alexander-Walker to go over his 3.5 line. The worst-case scenario feels like a 1-1 result between those two, as it would take an uncharacteristically cold night for those two to go 0-2. 

Finally, we will take Onyeka Okongwu to stay under 7.5 rebounds in what could be the top pick of the night. Okongwu doesn’t have the physicality needed to match up against Towns in the paint, meaning Daniels and Johnson will be aggressively crashing the glass to make up for it. It is assumed that the Hawks' number one center will get rebounds, but he will split time with the more physical Landale (assuming he plays), and Gueye may see meaningful time on the court too. Okongwu will be looking to draw Towns and/or Robinson away from the hoop whenever possible, reducing his time in and around the high-rebound areas of the floor. He’s only cleared this line three times in his last 10 games, and a slow-paced affair will allow him to stay just under once again.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (+5) 4 Units

Pick: CJ McCollum Over 2.5 Threes -120 1 Unit

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 Threes +110 1 Unit

Pick: Onyeka Okongwu Under 7.5 Rebounds -130 4 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 16-6

Spread: 22-19

Total: 3-11

Player Props: 66-36

Overall: 108-71

Total Units: Up 89.4 Units 

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