Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 4/9/2026

by Jeremy Block - 4/9/2026

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping Gradey Dick Toronto Raptors

The NBA regular season is basically in the coffin. And with the postseason just a week away, this is the last call to get the bankroll right before the real chaos starts. Betting the playoffs is far from easy. However, right now, there’s a massive opportunity to cash in on the desperation of teams currently fighting for their lives.

Between the teams clawing to stay in the play-in mix and the ones fighting over a guaranteed seed, there are a few teams that will need to start playing like their paychecks depend on it. So, instead of guessing which team actually cares in mid-April, let’s look at four betting trends that need your attention before the postseason.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Ride Raptors ATS Conference Matchups

The Raptors started off the season looking like the team to beat in the East, but a few months of injuries and sloppy road trips turned that hype into a nightmare. Now, sitting in sixth with the Magic and Sixers breathing down their necks just one game back. Toronto needs to finish this season strong, which is exactly why backing them in conference matchups is the play.

When this roster is healthy—which it finally is—it has the tools to outplay anyone. With a lineup that has four different players averaging north of 16 points and ranks second in the league in assists, recording just shy of 30 a night; it’s clear this team has the artillery to dismantle Eastern Conference defenses. Keep in mind, the Raptors are now 26-23 against the spread in conference play.

To make things even sweeter, the final three games are all against the East: the Heat, the Knicks, and the Nets. These aren't just "winnable" games; they are games where Toronto has to play as if it is in desperation mode. While other teams might be coasting, the Raptors have to hunker down to seal their spot. Take the Raptors against the spread before the regular season door slams shut.

Lock in 76ers As Favorites

Keeping it in the East, the 76ers have had its typical up-and-down circus of a season. Even with rookie VJ Edgecombe having a standout season, Philly still managed to hit its usual rough spots. Between Paul George and Joel Embiid playing a season-long game of “who can take the most PTO days,” the Sixers swallowed a chunk of losses that frankly nobody saw coming.

Now, with its back against the wall and a healthy roster finally on the floor, it’s time to take Philly on the lines when listed as the favorite. I know that sounds hypocritical after I just called them a mess, but there’s a method to the madness. 

Whether Embiid is out there or not, this team has more than enough firepower to keep things interesting. Between Tyrese Maxey’s 28.4 points and Edgecombe’s 16 a night, the Sixers can hold its own even when its “franchise big” is in the trainer's room.

The real surprise has been the perimeter defense. Ranking 11th in the league and holding opponents to just 35% from deep is going to be the deciding factor in these final three games. Philly is currently in overdrive trying to lock in a better seed, and the schedule handed them the perfect opportunity to do it. 

With a 25-18 record against the spread when favored, matching up against the Rockets, Pacers, and Bucks to close it out is a gift. This is about as close to a guarantee as you get in the betting world. Don't let the mid-season hiccups scare you off—Philly has the talent and the track record to finish the season strong.

Bet Over for Spurs Home Games

Moving out West, San Antonio has a home trend that bettors need to start paying attention to. The Spurs are 22-16 record on the over in home games this season, which might seem weird for a team that actually plays defense. The reason is straightforward: its offense is just more dangerous in its own building.

As we have seen all season, the Spurs play unselfish basketball and rely on multiple scorers rather than one player high-jacking the offense. The team moves the ball, finds the open man, and consistently puts up numbers that force defenses to collapse.

With only two home games left on the schedule, the situation gets even more interesting. San Antonio has already clinched the division, which means the defensive intensity is almost guaranteed to take a dip. 

When a team has nothing left to prove in the regular season, it starts resting starters and giving bench warmers the minutes. This opens the door for opponents to pile on points against second-unit players who aren't exactly focused on defensive rotations. I expect a lot of scoring and little defense. Take the over on these last two Spurs home games and thank me later.

Fade Lakers In Conference Matchups

If you're looking for another way to keep the bankroll promising, start fading the Lakers in conference matchups immediately. The Purple and Gold may be 50-29 on the year, but that record is useless today. Without its top scorers, Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic, for the foreseeable future, this team has started to crumble faster than a cookie in a glass of milk.

Without those two, the scoring load falls squarely on a 41-year-old LeBron James. Even for him, carrying this roster against the West is a dead end. L.A. is limping into the final week on a three-game losing streak against conference opponents. That includes getting embarrassed by 36 points against the Thunder and losing to a Dallas team that has been struggling all season.

The defensive side is even uglier, ranking 25th in the league and allowing teams to shoot 48% from the floor. Now it has to match up with the Warriors, a tough Phoenix Suns team, and the Jazz to finish the season. With no offensive depth and a defense that brings nothing to the table, I’m expecting the Lakers to fall short of any line Vegas decides to post.

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers