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2025-26 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions for Futures Betting

by Spencer Toth - 2/6/2026

NBA championship odds Kevin Durant Houston Rockets

The dust from the NBA trade deadline has settled, and the NBA championship odds have adjusted after a flurry of moves for the top contenders. With the NBA All-Star break less than a week away, now is the perfect time to lock in your championship picks. The Oklahoma City Thunder still stand above the rest, but they have gone just 5-5 in their last ten, and are far from immortal at the top of the West. Eight teams are coming in with +1900 odds or shorter, meaning this year’s playoff race could be more open than OKC’s +105 title odds suggest. Here are all eight contenders broken down, with a value rating attached for their current odds at this stage of the season. 

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OKC Thunder: +105

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the outright favorites to win the championship since tip-off, and it hasn’t been very close. No team has had sub +150 championship odds at this stage of the season since the Golden State Warriors era in the late 2010s, where they were as low as -150 in some years. The Thunder entered the season with -120 odds to win the championship, but their recent mediocrity has inflated their odds slightly. 

Make no mistake, the Thunder are still the best team in the league by a wide margin. They were relatively inactive at the trade deadline, but did pick up Jaren McCain for a first and three second-round picks. McCain will be a depth option at guard for OKC, and will buoy their bench unit even higher heading into the second half of the season. 

In terms of value, I find it hard to get behind the Thunder at these odds. The +105 odds imply Oklahoma City will be -500 favorites in all four playoff rounds, and that is not realistic. They will likely be closer to -300 against the Nuggets, Spurs, Timberwolves, and the Eastern Conference winner, making it a better bet to roll over your winnings than tying up your bankroll at this stage of the year. This team is dominant on both ends of the court; they have an overflow of young talent, including the reigning MVP, but the math doesn’t support this price. We won’t go as low as a 0/5, as I can’t argue with the Thunder’s spot at the top of the list, but you are better off staying away from here from a numbers point of view. 

Value Rating: 1/5

Denver Nuggets: +650

The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic leading the charge, and a healthy squad could certainly take down OKC. Denver has seen Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cameron Johnson all miss significant time this year, yet they are still knocking on the door at the top of the standings. Jokic’s health is essential for the Nuggets’ success, but they have proven they can still compete without him. Their offense is starting to flow when Jokic is not on the court, and their defense has gotten better this year compared to last. Jamal Murray is finally looking like an All-Star, and if he can regain his form from the Nuggets' 2023 championship run, Denver is a real team to watch out West.
Denver was quiet at the trade deadline, as their squad will be bolstered down the stretch by healthy bodies rather than new arrivals. Jokic is still the best player in the world, and he has already proven that he can carry the Nuggets on a deep playoff run. This is arguably the greatest supporting cast he has had during his decade in Denver, making the Nuggets worthy of the next shortest odds after the mighty Thunder. I can’t get too excited for a +650 price in the Wild Western Conference, but I wouldn’t blame you if Denver was your team of choice. 

Value Rating: 3/5

Cleveland Cavaliers: +1300

The Cavaliers have been the most disappointing team of the season so far, going 21-31 against the spread. Cleveland was expected to run a wide-open Eastern Conference this season, but it has been far from smooth sailing as they sit seven games back of the first-place Pistons. However, they have started to turn things around with six wins in their last seven, and landed a potential game-changer in James Harden at the trade deadline. 

Harden was sent to Cleveland in exchange for Darius Garland and a second-round pick, which could turn out to be quite the steal for Cleveland. Harden instantly elevates the Cavaliers’ backcourt, as his partnership with Donovan Mitchell will be electric to watch. The concerns about his play on the defensive side of the ball are still there, but Cleveland is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and will be able to offset his weaknesses.

The Cavaliers suddenly have an incredible duo in the backcourt, two dominant big men down low with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and Max Strus set to make his season debut in a few weeks. Once you couple their deep bench with a lack of bona fide contenders in the Eastern Conference, the +1300 price tag suddenly feels like a steal. 

Value Rating: 5/5 

Detroit Pistons: +1300

Less than two years ago, the Pistons were setting the NBA record for the longest losing streak of all time. Flash forward to today, and they are on top of the Eastern Conference with a 37-13 record. Cade Cunningham has been the driving force behind their success, leading the team in PPG (25.4) and Assists (9.8). The entire Pistons offense goes through Cunningham, and it is clear that Detroit has found its man to lead the next generation of Pistons basketball. 

At the trade deadline, Detroit traded Jaden Ivey for Kevin Huerter, Dario Saric, and a 2026 first-round pick swap. Ivey had fallen out of the rotation in Detroit with a dramatic reduction in minutes compared to his last two seasons, and it was time for both sides to move on. Huerter is a great shooter who can generate his own offense, and he will look to improve on the Pistons three point shooting woes. Saric will provide depth behind Jalen Duren at center, giving the Pistons a deep enough rotation to stay at the top of the East. 

While there is a lot to like about Detroit, I find it hard to imagine them making and winning the NBA Finals. They lack playoff experience on their roster, and going from no series wins to four straight in a single season is a huge jump. They have proven themselves in the regular season and will likely be a contender next year, but this year, they will have to settle for development as their primary prize from a hard-fought season. 

Value Rating: 2/5 

Boston Celtics: +1400

The Celtics have managed to stay competitive without Jayson Tatum, as they came into the year with 50-50 odds to make the postseason. Jaylen Brown continues to dominate on the outside, while the growth from Payton Pritchard has allowed them to stay near the top of the conference. This is a very different team from their championship-winning side two years ago, but they are just as competitive. 

Neemias Queta has been the Celtics starting center this season, and while he has played admirably, he isn’t dominant enough to warrant 25+ minutes of action each night. Boston brought in Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, who will challenge for the starting spot at TD Garden. Vucevic is a shooting big man who can control the paint on defense and is the perfect addition to the Celtics roster. Losing Anfernee Simons hurts, but the reality is that there wasn't much space for him in the backcourt anyway. 

The reality with the Celtics is that they are a good, but not great, team without Jayson Tatum. If Tatum can come back from injury before the playoffs, the Celtics will be the odds-on Eastern Conference favorites. However, the timeline is still murky as he looks to recover from his Achilles tear, and it is starting to look increasingly likely that he will sit out the entire season. Losing a star hurts, but if Vucevic can slot in nicely, Boston could make another shocking run to the NBA Finals. Once you factor in the chance that Tatum comes back, there is a lot to like about +1400 odds. 

Value Rating: 4/5

San Antonio Spurs: +1500

While watching the Spurs this season has been tons of fun, they are still probably one more season away from really competing. Taking down the OKC Thunder four times this season has been impressive, and they will be confident in their chances against the reigning champions in a seven-game playoff series as a result. Victor Wembanyama appears to be healthy again, as the medical staff took their time nurturing him back to full strength with harsh minutes restrictions. The youth in San Antonio are ready to erupt, but I can’t get behind this kind of price, given the plethora of contenders in the conference. They stayed quiet at the trade deadline, and while they were built to beat the Thunder, I am not confident that they will go on a playoff run long enough to match up with their longtime foes. 

Value Rating: 1/5

New York Knicks: +1700

The city of New York is ready for a championship, and its NBA Cup win was just a taste of what is to come. The Knicks have an incredibly strong starting five led by Jalen Brunson, but the problem has always been their depth. Their bench unit was bolstered by the shooting of Luke Kennard at the trade deadline, but it still may not be enough to compete in the playoffs.
On the bright side, rosters shorten in the postseason, meaning New York may be able to get away with a seven or eight-man rotation for the majority of the playoffs. The offense from Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, combined with the defense from OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, is enough to make any contender quiver with fear. The Knicks have been as high as +1000 earlier this season, and this line offers some solid value for a team built to win in the playoffs. 

Value Rating: 4/5 

Houston Rockets: +1900

The Rockets have a unique combination of players with a bunch of lengthy defenders surrounding the scoring from Kevin Durant. Durant is still one of the most effective pure scorers in the league at 37 years old, and his teammates are happy to set him up whenever possible on offense. Alperen Sengun, or ‘Baby Jokic,’ has developed into a really nice talent on offense, as he is capable of facilitating, scoring, and rebounding himself. His link-up play with Durant will be the biggest factor as to whether or not the Rockets can go on a deep run, and at this price, I can find reasons to like Houston. The Rockets' match up really nicely against anyone other than the Thunder in the West, meaning if someone else can knock out the reigning champions, Houston may have a clear path to the Finals. This kind of dominant defense, mixed with Durant’s scoring, makes this price hard to turn down.
Value Rating: 3/5 

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