2026 Super Bowl Opening Line Report with Odds Movement Predictions

by Joey House - 1/26/2026

Super Bowl opening line report Drake Maye New England Patriots

Green confetti rained down as Michael Strahan and Kam Chancellor fired up the roaring "12th Man," ushering in the most improbable Super Bowl rematch ever: a Super Bowl LX showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, reigniting the heated debates from their Super Bowl XLIX clash over a decade ago, but this time distinguished by an unprecedented path, the first Super Bowl in modern history (since futures tracking began in 1975) to feature two teams with preseason odds longer than +5000, with Seattle opening at +6000 and New England at +8000, marking the longest combined underdog journey to the title; DraftKings quickly released the opening line as Seattle was still celebrating their NFC title, installing them as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5 ahead of the February 8 clash at Levi's Stadium.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Immediate Line Movement

New England's 10–7 win over Denver in the snow made them the lowest‑scoring team ever to reach a Super Bowl through a conference championship, a game defined by slick footing, turnovers, and almost no sustained offense. The Patriots produced only 10 points, with Drake Maye's mobility providing just enough to survive. The performance again highlighted their inconsistency, shaky offensive line, and heavy reliance on defense and special teams, raising immediate concerns about how they would keep pace with a more complete opponent on the sport's biggest stage.

Once the Super Bowl lines opened Sunday night, the market reacted quickly. Sharp bettors hit Seattle early, pushing the spread to 4.5 by Monday morning, with some shops briefly touching 5 before settling back. Moneyline prices moved in the same direction, while the total held steady at 46.5 with little appetite to shift it, signaling no early consensus on pace or scoring.

The rapid adjustment reflected widespread skepticism about New England's offensive ceiling after such a low‑output win. That gritty, defense‑driven path to the title game may have been resilient, but it underscored the gap between the Patriots' scoring ability and Seattle's more balanced attack. Bettors responded by fading the underdog immediately, sending both sharp and public money toward the Seahawks and pushing the consensus spread into the 4-4.5 range by Monday morning.

Market Drivers to Watch Before Kickoff

The coming days will shape how this market settles in the lead-up to next weekend. Historically, the opening number sets the baseline. Still, with nearly two full weeks of buildup before the Super Bowl, each round of news and public sentiment can influence direction and momentum.

Injury and Health Updates

Player availability is often the primary factor influencing the Super Bowl line. Even routine practice rest for key players can shift public perception. Bettors and bookmakers alike will closely monitor official practice reports for any signs of limitations on star players, especially in skill positions or pass-rush roles.

Coaching Strategies and Team Perception

Early analysis will focus on team identity and matchup tendencies rather than individual names. Seattle has built its reputation on balance and adaptability, while New England's postseason run has been defined by discipline, strong defense, and timely offense. Bettors will look closely at which side can dictate tempo, as that often shapes both spread and total movement during Super Bowl week.

Sharp and Public Influence

Professional bettors typically make their moves early to secure favorable lines. In contrast, the general public usually enters the market later, often supporting the team they view as more dynamic or familiar. If Seattle continues to attract early bets from sharp players, we could see a brief line move before adjustments closer to game day.

Timing and Volume Trends

Typically, more than 90 percent of Super Bowl wagering occurs in the final five days before kickoff. This means that what transpires this week will likely provide only a glimpse of where the market will ultimately settle. Until then, odds are expected to remain close to their opening levels while sportsbooks evaluate betting distribution and exposure.

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	December 31, 2026 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	August Young
Free $60 Account Sign Up