Baseball Handicapping Articles
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 27, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/26/2017
Big news for the Los Angeles Dodgers and perhaps in the NL Rookie of the Year race as L.A. has recalled its top position player prospect, first baseman Cody Bellinger. The 21-year-old, ranked the 10th-best prospect in baseball, was overmatched during spring training as a non-roster invitee, hitting just .207 with a .639 OPS and 20 strikeouts in 58 at-bats. However, Bellinger was a standout at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, hitting .343 with five homers, 15 RBIs and a 1.055 OPS in 67 at-bats.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 26, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/25/2017
I was one of those who believed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would be one of the top bounce-back candidates in the National League this season and that they might contend for a wild-card spot - I presumed the Dodgers would win the NL West and still do. Part of my belief in the Snakes was because Shelby Miller would rebound from a horrific first season in the desert. And for the most part Miller has with a 2-2 record and 4.09. Not great by any means, but much better than 2016 and his velocity was up.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, April 25, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/24/2017
First off, shame on you if you bet on the Giants to win the NL West or any such futures. You should know by now that the Giants go to the playoffs in even-numbered years this decade but miss out when it's an odd-numbered one. And while it's only late April, I would go ahead and stick a fork in San Francisco for this season. That's because not only is the team 6-13 as of Monday but it also lost its most important player, ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner, for two months or more after he injured his ribs and pitching shoulder in a dirt-bike accident. Are MLB players contractually allowed to go dirtbiking?
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Saturday, April 22, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/21/2017
Something happened on Thursday in Major League Baseball that won't have any betting ramifications this season or probably next. But it's worth putting in your back pocket going forward: MLB cleared Cuban outfielder Luis Robert to sign with a team, and he'll officially become a free agent on May 20. Why is this important? Robert's agents had to get this clearance done soon because baseball's new CBA calls for hard caps on international spending for the 2017-2018 signing period, and the 2016-2017 signing period ends in a couple of months. Robert is just 19 so he's obviously not going straight to the majors, but scouts rave about the guy.
MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/20/2017
The baseball season is 15 games old for most teams. The Cincinnati Reds sit in first place in the NL Central. The Colorado Rockies are tied in first place with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. Those are definitely some strange early-season results, but I strongly encourage everyone to not read into this too much. Remember, this is a 162-game season, so we are less than 10 percent of the way done with the season. It's easy to have some statistical anomalies at this point in the season. The Reds aren't going to win the NL Central, and they probably won't end up being very good. Overreacting to early results can get bettors in a lot of trouble.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, April 21, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/20/2017
In the bottom of the ninth of a 6-6 tie at Cleveland's Progressive Field in last year's epic Game 7 of the World Series between the Cubs and Indians, gassed Chicago closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 1-1 hanging breaking ball with one out to Tribe batter Jason Kipnis. It looked at first like Kipnis got all of it and might have homered down the right-field line to send the Cubs to the most crushing of the franchise's many crushing losses. Even Cubs team president Theo Epstein thought it was gone at first. How fitting would it have been if Kipnis beat the Cubbies?
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 20, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/19/2017
Crushing news for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, and here's hoping you bet "under" their wins total of 82.5 at sportsbooks entering the season. Andrew McCutchen might be their best-known player and is a former NL MVP, but the Pirates' star these days is outfielder Starling Marte. He has been suspended 80 games for PED use. In each of the past four seasons, he had a WAR of at least 4.9. The only other outfielder with at least that number over that span? Mike Trout.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 19, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/18/2017
It's not too often you will see a team in last place with a positive run differential, but that was the case with the Texas Rangers in the AL West entering this week. The Rangers have one of the best offenses in baseball, but their bullpen has been a total disaster - mainly closer Sam Dyson. He blew a third save in three tries on Sunday and has a 27.00 ERA. Manager Jeff Bannister obviously had no choice but to say something had to be done in that role.
MLB Wagering and Handicapping: Surprise Starts
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
As seems to so often be the case in baseball, things feel like they are upside down early in the season. Teams like the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Rangers came into the season with high expectations and have been horrible. They find themselves at the bottom of the standings. On the flip side, three squads - the Reds, Rockies and Yankees - have jumped out to starts far beyond what was reasonable to expect for them.
MLB Handicapping and Betting Help: Disappointing Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
Pitching in the major leagues is extremely tough. The more guys you watch try to do it, the more you realize how impressive the guys who have sustained success are. To win consistently, and produce moneyline profits, you need to play at a very high level and get the help from your team as well. Every year we see guys who were good one year, and who have solid reputations, struggle the next year. It's early this year, but there are six guys who really stand out because their performance for bettors have been just plain awful - and bettors would have been right to expect more from them:
MLB Handicapping: What to Make of Poor Start from Blue Jays
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
I basically make predictions for a living - thousands per year. Some are right and some are wrong. That's just how it goes. Every so often, though, one comes along that you make and then soon wish you could take back. One so terribly wrong that it leads you to question… well everything. I'm a couple of weeks removed from one such prediction - that the Toronto Blue Jays were handily going to be a playoff team. I even said that they could threaten the Red Sox for AL East supremacy. It made some sense at the time - I still think that. Only 12 games into their season, though, the wheels have fallen completely off, and things are grim.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, April 18, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/17/2017
Baltimore Orioles All-Star closer Zach Britton, otherwise known as the guy Manager Buck Showalter stupidly didn't use in the 2016 AL Wild-Card game in Toronto, is going to miss 10 days or so with a left forearm strain. Britton had arguably the best season ever by a reliever last year and has converted 54 straight save opportunities, tied for the second-longest American League streak of all time. Five of those are this season. Sometimes forearm strains can lead to major problems, but the Orioles are confident this is minor, and the southpaw hasn't had any problems previously. Since the start of the 2014 season, Britton has 125 saves and a 1.38 ERA along with a 0.94 WHIP. Brad Brach should take over Britton's role.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, April 14, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/13/2017
The Atlanta Braves have been just about unwatchable so far this season, but there will be a sellout crowd on Friday night when the team plays its first game at the new SunTrust Park, which is nowhere near downtown Atlanta and the old Turner Field but in a northern Cobb County suburb. The park looks beautiful, but I'm still not clear why the team would move away from a 20-year-old stadium in the heart of the city. Oh yeah, for money. It's going to be a traffic nightmare getting to the new stadium. In perhaps a bad omen Wednesday, several boxes carrying foam Braves tomahawks fell off a truck in Atlanta and blocked two lanes of traffic on a busy interstate.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 13, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/12/2017
To little surprise, the Atlanta Braves have the worst offensive team in baseball, and if you weren't already betting under the total in their games, well shame on you. I'd start now that the team's second-best hitter, outfielder Matt Kemp, has been placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 8, with a strained right hamstring. Kemp has been easily the best Braves hitter at .500 with two homers and four RBIs. He actually had become a durable player the past three years. Emilio Bonifacio likely will play left field most nights while Kemp is out.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 12, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/11/2017
Corey Seager deserved to win National League Rookie of the Year in 2016, and he's going to win an MVP Award or two before his career is done. That said, I would have liked to have seen what kind of numbers Washington's Trea Turner would have put up in a full season. He finished second to Seager in the ROY voting after batting .342 with 13 homers, 40 RBIs and 33 steals in 324 plate appearances. He's going to be a perennial All-Star. Alas, the Nationals are going to be without him for the next 10 days or so as he was placed on the DL Monday, retroactive to Sunday with a hamstring strain.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, April 11, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/10/2017
I really didn't understand why many experts were picking the Los Angeles Dodgers as the NL pennant winners in 2017. Yes, I expected L.A. to win the NL West for a fifth straight year, but injuries ravaged their pitching staff a year ago, so why wouldn't it happen again? It's like everyone assumed L.A. would stay healthy this time and that the Cubs' staff would get hit with injuries because it was so healthy in 2016. Well, L.A. already is down two guys. Scott Kazmir opened the season on the DL and now Rich Hill has joined him.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Saturday, April 8, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/7/2017
If you were pondering a bet on the Detroit Tigers to win their home series with the Boston Red Sox this weekend, this might cinch your decision on the Motor City Kitties: Stellar Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts will miss the series as he has been placed on the on the bereavement list. Bogaerts will rejoin the team on Monday. He was 2-for-9 in two games after hitting .294 with 21 homers and 89 RBIs last year. Brock Holt figures to start at short while Bogaerts is out. The Red Sox also put reliever Matt Barnes on the bereavement list. He'll be back Sunday.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, April 7, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/6/2017
The Milwaukee Brewers have some interesting pieces on their team but weren't going to be competing for a wild-card spot this season - the NL Central is going to be owned by the Cubs for at least a few more years so it's wild-card or bust for the other four in that division. Ideally, the Brew Crew would flip a few of their veterans at some point before July 31 to stock up even more in the farm system. Probably trade candidate No. 1, pitcher Junior Guerra, couldn't even make it through his first start of the year healthy. He's going to miss at least six weeks with a significant calf strain. He was hurt as a batter on Monday. Guerra is 32 but super-cheap and would have some value if he was anything close to his 2016 rookie season when he was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts. Now the team's starting pitching depth, already a weak spot, will be even more tested.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 6, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/5/2017
Usually we are spared hearing the term "closer by committee" until at least mid-April after a few blown saves. But Angels manager Mike Scioscia isn't waiting that long. Presumed closer Huston Street started the season on the 10-day disabled list with back troubles but is likely out bit longer than that. He has been sidelined since March 3 because of a lat strain. Thus Scioscia will go with Cam Bedrosian, Andrew Bailey, or perhaps even a third guy depending on the matchups. Doesn't seem fair to the fire-balling Bedrosian, who was the best Angels reliever in 2016 -- recording a 1.12 ERA over 40 1/3 innings before undergoing season-ending surgery in September to repair a blood clot in his pitching arm - and he did not give up a run in spring training.
Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 5, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/4/2017
The biggest trade of the MLB offseason happened early in December when the Red Sox stole the thunder at the Winter Meetings by sending their top two prospects, as well as two other minor leaguers, to the Chicago White Sox for lefty Chris Sale, a perennial Cy Young candidate. Sale did open the season as the 2017 betting favorite to win his first Cy Young. I'm interested to see how he fares in Boston because Sale is a bit of a hothead at times - remember how he cut up all those uniforms last year? - and it's a lot different playing under the microscope in Boston than it is on the South Side of Chicago. I do expect Sale to reach 20 wins for the first time if he stays healthy with that terrific lineup behind him.
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