NBA Handicapping Articles

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/18/2017

The worst trade in modern NBA history and probably one of the three worst ever was Boston sending that Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce package to Brooklyn in July 2013 for basically every Nets first-round pick the rest of the decade. Actually, the last one conveys in 2018 (now to Cleveland), but that deal is what will make Boston an Eastern powerhouse for the next five years at least. Perhaps the second worst trade this decade happened in July 2015 when the Sacramento Kings sent a bunch of garbage, led by former lottery pick bust Nik Stauskas, to Philadelphia in a salary dump that landed the 76ers a future first-round pick. That became an unprotected 2019 first-rounder.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 16, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/15/2017

There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to when the various Doc's-affiliated sportsbooks put up NBA MVP futures, but you generally can find them once a week or so. I mention this because the last time I saw the futures, the slight betting favorite was Houston's James Harden over Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo. They might be the two most unique players in the NBA, and they also happen to rank 1-2 in scoring.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2017

At times this season in this space, I will address a BetOnline special prop the site has had up all year: Which team LeBron James plays his first game with in the 2018-19 regular season. There are odds on every team in the NBA, but obviously he's only going to a contender where some of his buddies play. The latest rumor is that James could sign with the Houston Rockets, who are +250 that prop right now.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 12/13/2017

Houston has won 10 straight games. It's clear that this Rockets team has at least narrowed the gap with Golden State. Could they beat the Warriors in a series? I don't think so. Still, I'd like to see that series. During their 10-game winning streak, Houston has scored 117 points or more eight times.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/12/2017

Count me among those who thought that new Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard got robbed by Oklahoma City counterpart Sam Presti this offseason when Presti sent "only" guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis to Indiana for Paul George. Now it looks like Pritchard did quite well as Oladipo has been one of the breakout stars in the league this year and Sabonis a good rotation player. George has been fine in OKC but not quite the superstar level we expected. In fact, the Pacers shockingly have a better record than Oklahoma City.

Free NBA Picks: Monday, Dec. 11, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/11/2017

A couple of things happened late last week that lead me to believe the NBA could expand from 30 to 32 teams within five years or so. The first was that the mayor of Seattle and a private investment group signed a $660 million Memorandum of Understanding, which will renovate KeyArena with it completed by October 2020. It's no secret that the city has wanted the NBA back since about the day after the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City, and Seattle is a great basketball town and deserves an NBA franchise (although I think the NHL will get there first).

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/8/2017

Not like the Phoenix Suns were going anywhere this season, but perhaps you fade them a bit more over the next 2-3 weeks as they will be without leading scorer and their best young player, guard Devin Booker, due to a left adductor strain. Booker already has a 46-point game this season (had a 70-point one last year) and is averaging 24.3 points. This isn't the worst thing to happen to the franchise as the more losses the better to improve lottery chances next May (actually, Phoenix has a minus-6.8 net rating when Booker is on the court).

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 8, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2017

Has Golden State star Steph Curry ruined Christmas for NBA fans? That's the marquee day of the regular season in The Association and the marquee matchup this year is yet another Warriors-Cavaliers matchup, their first meeting of the season. I assure you that both teams have that circled. However, Curry might not be ready to play by then after seriously spraining his ankle on Monday. Against New Orleans, he attempted to steal a Dante Cunningham pass to the wing when his ankle bent at a gruesome angle. An MRI was negative, but Curry won't even be re-evaluated for two weeks which obviously puts Christmas Day in jeopardy.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Reasons for Houston Rockets Success
by Trevor Whenham - 12/7/2017

It's a week into December, and the Houston Rockets have the best record in the Western Conference. Golden State has two more wins than Houston's 18, but they also have two more losses. Obviously, this doesn't mean that Houston is unquestionably the best team in the NBA, or anything close to that. It does mean, though, that we can really look at the question of whether Houston can be poised to finally be a real challenge for the Warriors. They invested heavily in making themselves a threat. So, are they? Here are five factors to consider when pondering those questions:

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/5/2017

If it weren't for bad luck, the San Antonio Spurs would have no luck at all this season - at least when it comes to injuries. Of course, superstar Kawhi Leonard has yet to play because of some nebulous quad injury but claims he's "close." Your guess is as good as mine as to when he returns as Coach Gregg Popovich isn't exactly forthcoming with the media. Point guard Tony Parker just debuted a week or so ago from a ruptured quad suffered in last year's playoffs. One guy who has really played well perhaps under the radar this season has been third-year forward Kyle Anderson, averaging 8.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists in around 27 minutes per night while starting in place of Leonard.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/4/2017

Look, I'm not going to feel bad for some NBA player who is making $4.1 million this season. But, wow, did Nerlens Noel make a gigantic mistake this summer when the Dallas Mavericks offered to re-sign him on a four-year, $70 million extension. Noel and his agent, Happy Walters, turned that down (they asked for the max) in hopes of landing more as a restricted free agent. Except competing teams rarely make big offers to RFAs because the original team can match - and it just ties up your salary cap potentially for a week while waiting.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/1/2017

I'm not sure I believe in curses, although how else can you explain the Chicago Cubs going 108 years without a World Series title and what has happened with Cleveland's "professional" football team since the Browns re-entered the NFL? So, while I don't want to say the Clippers are a cursed franchise, wow do they have bad luck. The latest bad fortune struck the team this week when star Blake Griffin went down with a knee injury. Only with the Clippers could it be good that Griffin will miss about two months with a sprained MCL; yes, that is much better than a torn ACL and 12 months on the sideline.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Biggest League Disappointments
by Trevor Whenham - 12/1/2017

We are a quarter of the way into the NBA season. We still don't know all there is to know in the league, but we do have a good sense of what teams are made of. And that means that there are some teams that have been pleasant surprises or teams that are definitely on track - Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota for example. And there are teams that have really disappointed up to this point. We are going to look at five squads on that second list right now. At this point these are the five biggest disappointments in the NBA:

Expert NBA Betting Advice: Teams With No Playoff Hope
by Trevor Whenham - 12/1/2017

We are only a quarter of the way into the NBA season, but for six teams in the league we might as well by 80 games in. These teams are going nowhere in a hurry and just have nothing left to play for other than balls in the draft lottery. It's a long season for the players, and a longer season for the fans, when it's not even December yet and there is nothing left to play for. Here's a look at each team and where they are at.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 11/30/2017

The strength of the NBA Eastern Conference Central Division has been a big surprise so far this year. Detroit is arguably the biggest surprise in the league. The Pistons now see the Cleveland Cavaliers quickly charging in their rear-view mirror as well. No surprise that the Cavs are putting it together. Indiana being 12-9 through 21 games is a big surprise as well. Then you have Milwaukee at 10-9, and they are a team that should make the playoffs. Will this division continue to overachieve? The polar opposite is the Western Conference Pacific Division. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA, but no one else in the division is any good. Golden State might clinch the division in early February at this rate.

Expert NBA Betting Advice: Studs and Duds Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2017

We are, give or take, a quarter of the way through the NBA season. There have been some real surprises along the way and some growing pains for some teams that have faced a lot of changes. The Thunder certainly didn't make the moves they did to be 8-11 and out of the playoffs. Expectations for the Lakers were a little overly optimistic. And Cleveland had a rough start. There have been some real positives, too, with teams like Detroit and Portland far exceeding reasonable expectations.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/28/2017

Might be smart to fade the Washington Wizards for the next two weeks or so as All-Star point guard John Wall, easily the heart-and-soul of that team, will miss around that long after getting some platelet-rich plasma injections in his bothersome and inflamed left knee. A knee injury is scary for any basketball player, but Wall's game is predicated on his quickness. Wall is averaging 20.3 points, 9.2 assists and 3.4 rebounds. The Wizards were averaging 110.6 points per possession with him, which would rank third in the NBA as a team, and led to a net efficiency rating of plus-7.3.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Six Factors to Boston Celtics Success
by Trevor Whenham - 11/22/2017

The Boston Celtics are a truly remarkable story right now. They lost their big free agent signing mere minutes into the opening game of the season. A lot of teams would be crushed by that, and for the first two games it looked like Boston would be as well. But then they went full nuclear. They have won 16 games in a row, opened up a four-game cushion atop the conference already, and are the most exciting part of what has been a pretty great season so far. It has been amazing. But can it last? Here are six factors to consider:

NBA Betting Advice: Lessons We have Learned Early Season
by Trevor Whenham - 11/17/2017

We are only 15 or so games into the NBA season, so it's important to remember that we really don't know much yet. Some teams aren't playing at full strength or intensity yet, and the playoffs are so far away that some elite teams just don't care. But we have seen enough basketball action to start to draw a few conclusions based on what we have seen so far. The sample size is large enough to at least draw these eight conclusions:

NBA Betting Advice: How to Handle OKC Thunder Slow Start
by Trevor Whenham - 11/17/2017

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a huge offseason splash. Then they made another one. The summer was an arms race like the NBA has never seen, and the Thunder were right there on the front in the heart of the action. The problem, though, is that through 14 games they have not been particularly good. In fact, only a recent three-game winning streak has returned them to .500 and shifted them from ugly to just mediocre.