NBA Handicapping Articles

Expert Betting Advice for NBA Teams that Could Finish Strong
by Trevor Whenham - 1/12/2018

We are, in round numbers, halfway through the NBA season. The sample size is large enough, then, that for many teams we know who they are and what we can expect from them. In some cases, though, we can expect teams to be far different in the second half than they have been in the first. Spotting those teams - which often isn't tough - can be helpful for bettors. Here's a look at four that should be different the rest of the way than they have been so far. Unlike past years when we have performed this exercise, all four stand a good chance of being improved - in the past we have spotted teams that are poised to fall from grace.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Los Angeles Lakers
by Trevor Whenham - 1/12/2018

The Lakers are a rare team. Like the Yankees or the Cowboys, people always have a massively inflated opinion of them - whether it is warranted or not. It's like the collective psyche craves to live in a world where these teams are great. When they struggle - as the Lakers unquestionably and dramatically are - the public struggles alongside them to figure out how to deal with them and to cope with the fact that recovery will be slow. As a result of the rose-colored glasses always aimed at the team there were people who thought that Lonzo Ball would lead this team into the playoffs, or at least threaten to.

NBA Betting Advice: Toronto Raptors Quietly Playing Excellent Basketball
by Trevor Whenham - 1/12/2018

The Toronto Raptors have served notice. On Thursday night, down two of their most important players in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, they kicked the ever-loving crap out of eternal Eastern champ LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers. They won by 34, and it was truly and totally impressive. Now, the Cavs are a mess - they have dropped six of eight and were crushed by Minnesota last time out. But it was still impressive.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 12, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/11/2018

Could Friday be the Utah Jazz's final game without Nikola Mirotic? Wait, you are probably asking: Doesn't Mirotic play for the Chicago Bulls? Indeed he does, but the tanking Bulls want to deal Mirotic, frankly, so they can get worse and also get a first-round pick for a guy who doesn't really fit into their plans. He can officially be traded at 12:01 a.m. ET on Monday. The Jazz are deep into discussions with the Bulls as Utah badly needs a stretch-4. They aren't a great 3-point shooting team and Mirotic is shooting a career high from deep. He has a no-trade clause but is willing to waive it to play for Quin Snyder.

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, Jan. 11, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/10/2018

It's not often we get matinee NBA action on a weekday that's not a holiday, but that's the case Thursday as Boston and Philadelphia will tip off at 3 p.m. ET from the O2 Arena in London as part of The Association's efforts at global sports dominance - and the NBA is way ahead in that regard compared to the NFL (most of the world doesn't play American football), NHL and Major League Baseball. The 76ers are one of the most international teams in the NBA as their three-best players are from outside the USA: Joel Embiid (Cameroon), Ben Simmons (Australia) and Dario Saric (Croatia).

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/9/2018

It literally makes my skin crawl to even mention the clown LaVar Ball's name. But yet again that loudmouth is in the news. For whatever reason, ESPN.com thinks the guy is newsworthy and sent a reporter to Lithuania to hang around the Ball family; of course, he sent his two youngest sons over there to play professionally instead of getting a free education and playing at a marquee program like UCLA.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/8/2018

Two bad teams have very different motivations for the rest of this NBA season. The Brooklyn Nets don't hold their first-round pick - it goes to Cleveland via Boston - so the Nets aren't going to be tanking any games. They want to build a winning culture and see what guys are going to be part of the future. The Sacramento Kings are on the complete other side of the spectrum. Now that the Nets seem to have a good coach and GM in place and a path to respectability, the Kings have to be called the worst-run organization in the NBA.

NBA Championship Expert Betting Predictions with Title Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 1/5/2018

When we look at who is going to win the NBA Championship it feels like we are pretending. We all know how it is going to turn out, but we have to pretend that there is some drama so we can believe that there is some sort of point to the next five months of basketball. It's like it's all one big season of "Friends". We knew Ross and Rachel would end up together from the second episode, but we still pretended that the next 10 seasons mattered and that there were things to resolve. So, let's pretend that there is something to decide here and make some NBA Championship predictions (odds are from BetOnline):

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/5/2018

There have been two coaches who have been fired thus far this season: the Suns' Earl Watson and Grizzlies' David Fizdale. Phoenix has been a bit better under interim coach Jay Triano, while Memphis has been worse under interim J.B. Bickerstaff, although that's partly due to Mike Conley's injury. Long story shot: neither guy is likely to get the full-time job. My prediction for the next coach fired? Orlando's Frank Vogel. He did a pretty good job at Indiana from 2010-16, but the Magic are going backward in his second season (and there's some talent on that roster!). It's also important to note that Vogel was hired by former GM Rob Hennigan, who was fired after last season.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 1/4/2018

Things have cycled back around to Golden State having the best record in the NBA as of the new year. No one should be even a little surprised by that. Though other teams get on nice runs and get a lot of coverage, everyone knows the Warriors are the class of the NBA, and they will be very hard to beat in the playoffs.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 5, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018

How close were the Boston Celtics to landing Jimmy Butler? Depends on which report you read, but there seemed to be little question that the Bulls and Celtics had talks about Butler all during last season and that those really heated up ahead of the 2017 draft. After Boston moved down from No. 1 to No. 3 back in June, the Bulls called and offered the Celtics Butler straight-up for the No. 3 overall pick. How do you not take that if you are Danny Ainge?

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/3/2018

Bovada released updated NBA Rookie of the Year odds this week, and there was some interesting movement. Ben Simmons had been a whopping -2000 favorite the last time that site posted odds, but now he's down to -650. Frankly, I think guys should only be eligible to win ROY in the year they were drafted, but I'm guessing the NBA doesn't care about my opinion. Of course, the Clippers' Blake Griffin missed his entire "rookie" season due to injury and then won ROY in his second. Simmons is a future superstar without question in averaging 16.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.5 assists despite the fact he has no jumper to speak of and can't shoot free throws. Closing on him a bit is Utah's Donovan Mitchell at +400.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/2/2018

One of the games of the week in the NBA is Wednesday night when Boston hosts Cleveland in the first of an ESPN doubleheader. It could have been even bigger but not for an odd decision by Cavs coach Tyronn Lue. Of course, the Cavaliers traded Kyrie Irving to Boston this offseason, and one of the pieces they got back was former Celtics fan favorite and All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas. He hadn't played this season due to a hip injury that cut his time in last season's Eastern Conference Finals short. Thomas was set for his Cleveland debut on Tuesday vs. Portland but then wasn't going to play Wednesday in Boston.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 30, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/29/2017

If you watched Minnesota's overtime win over Denver on Wednesday night or saw highlights, then you probably thought what I did when Timberwolves point guard Jeff Teague went down with a knee injury: He's done for the season. Teague was hurt when Denver guard Gary Harris rolled into Teague's lower leg during a scrum for the ball. Minnesota got some good news on the big free-agent acquisition, however, as there were no torn ligaments in that left knee and only a sprained MCL.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 29, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2017

The Los Angeles Clippers haven't received much good news thus far in the 2017-18 season, but some good news arrived Friday as All-Star power forward Blake Griffin could return sooner than expected from a sprain of his left medial collateral ligament. Griffin was originally hurt on Nov. 27 and was ruled out eight weeks - so he'll beat that timetable substantially. Griffin was off to a great start, averaging 23.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/26/2017

It's somewhat easy to root against Lonzo Ball simply because his ridiculous father is such a blowhard, but by all accounts Lonzo is a quiet guy and great teammate. The Lakers are much more interesting to watch when he's on the court. Alas, the rookie point guard missed the Christmas Night matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves and will miss at least a week with a left shoulder sprain. Ball said he the shoulder "pop, kind of" after he got tangled up with Portland's Jusuf Nurkic near the end of the first half of a loss to the Trail Blazers on Saturday.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/25/2017

The supposed experts around the NBA were ripping the Chicago Bulls for the return they received in sending All-Star guard Jimmy Butler to Minnesota this past offseason. The Bulls got guard Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as well as the No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 draft for Butler and the No. 16 pick. While Butler remains a very good player, the Bulls might have won that trade in retrospect. Dunn looks nothing like the lost rookie he did in 2016-17. I'm not saying he will be an All-Star, but he's a quality starting point guard in the NBA and a plus defender. LaVine is getting close to making his Chicago debut off his torn ACL suffered last season. That No. 7 pick became Finnish 7-footer Lauri Markkanen, who might actually be a Dirk Nowitzki-Lite and has been a Top 5 rookie.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 23, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/22/2017

It's fairly easy to spot a trap game in the NFL because teams only play once a week, and when they come off facing an arch-rival in an emotional and physical contest you should always bet against them the next game. That's why at Doc's this week, I have recommended wagering against the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. It's not quite as easy to find potential trap games in the NBA with the night-to-night grind of an 82-game schedule, but I think there are a few on Saturday's busy schedule because some teams will be looking ahead to big-time matchups on Christmas.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 22, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2017

I was in the camp that Chris Paul was vastly overrated but might be slightly changing my mind. Great player, no question, one of the best point guards of his generation. But he reportedly is a total a**hole as a teammate (then again, so was MJ), and how good can someone be when you have never led a team to even the conference finals!?! In fact, Paul has played 76 career playoff games, the most by any player ever without a conference finals appearance. (One of his Clippers teams should have gotten there but absolutely gagged in the 2015 West semis vs. Houston). I believe, barring injury, that will change next May. Paul's Rockets are arguably the NBA's best team right now and should finish no worse than second in the West, meaning they would avoid the Golden State Warriors until the West Finals.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/19/2017

I don't recommend betting on the Utah Jazz for the rest of 2017. The Jazz are struggling as it and just lost their best player, center Rudy Gobert, for about a month due to a sprained PCL in his left knee and a bruised tibia. He already had missed 11 games earlier due to a bone bruise in his right knee. Gobert is averaging 11.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks this season and is one of the three top difference-makers in the league on defense. Maybe No. 1. So you might also want to consider some over plays on Utah totals for a while, although it can't score much itself.