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Free NBA Picks Monday, November 25 and Opening Line Report


by Jason Radowitz - 11/25/2019

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder

We've got some pretty epic matchups in tonight's slate of NBA games, including the Raptors and 76ers game . We all remember what happened the last time these two teams met; but now things are different. Kawhi Leonard isn't a Raptor anymore, and the 76ers have added to their roster. This game should be fun, along with the other 10 games on the night's slate. So here we go…

Nets @ Cavaliers (PICK , 21 7.5)

The Nets are on the road playing a back-to-back against the Cavs after defeating their New York rival inside Madison Square Garden. Cleveland is coming off a win against Portland on Saturday night. The Nets are 7th in the league averaging 113.7 points per game, and they rebound well too. However, the Nets have been hit with the injury bug as of late with Caris LeVert and Kyrie Irving out. Before the game against Portland, the Cavs were on a six-game losing streak. It'll come down to rebounding and guard play. Dinwiddie against Clarkson will be a great matchup. The Nets should ultimately win the battle and get the win while running on adrenaline for this one.

Key trends: The Nets are 15-5 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Early lean: Nets and Under

Magic @ Pistons (-4.5, 207.5)

The Magic are coming into this game looking for their first road win of the year. They've won six games, but they've all been at home. The Pistons most recent game was a loss against the Bucks. However, the Pistons kept the margin respectable throughout the game. Although the Pistons were off yesterday, they'll be playing their third game in four nights. Luckily, they'll be home for this one. The Pistons are 4-3 at home and 1-8 on the road. Blake Griffin sat out Saturday's matchup against the Bucks. He'll be rested, even if the rest of the team isn't. The Magic haven't won a game on the road, and they've been horrible offensively.

Key trends: Detroit is 4-3 straight up against Orlando over the last 3 seasons.

Early lean: Pistons, Under

Grizzlies @ Pacers (-9.5, 217.5)

The Pacers were shorthanded after their previous win against the Orlando Magic as Malcolm Brogdon sat with a bad back. It looks like he'll be returning tonight for this game against the Grizzlies. The Pacers have had quite a few double-digit scorers on this team without Brogdon. But when he comes back, the depth goes back to the bench. I don't expect Brogdon to be 100 percent or play his best basketball. The Grizzlies have been red hot recently, winning three of their last four, after losing to the Lakers 109-108. Ja Morant has become the top Rookie of the Year candidate this year. They've kept their games close. I don't see why they wouldn't against the banged-up Pacers.

Key trends: The Pacers are 3-5-2 (37.5%) against the spread as a favorite this season.

Early lean: Grizzlies and Over

Hornets @ Heat (-10.5, 215.5)

The Miami Heat have been really, really good. They're 6-0 at home this season (6-0 against the spread too), sporting an 11-4 record overall. They'll play at home against the struggling Charlotte Hornets. I don't think there's a question as to if the Heat will win this game. They will. But can they cover a double-digit spread ? The Heat are coming off a beating from the 76ers on Saturday night. It was the first time the Heat really looked out of sync this season. It was Jimmy Butler's return against his former team. The Hornets won a game on November 15 on a Malik Monk three-ball and then won the next night on a Devonte' Graham three-ball. Then they just lost on Saturday by one point to the Bulls because Zack LaVine happened. What I'm trying to say is, they at least keep games close. Hornets will cover the 10.5 points.

Key trends: The Hornets are 8-7 (53.3%) as an underdog this season against the spread.

Early lean: Hornets and Over

Kings @ Celtics (-6.5, 208.5)

The Celtics were on a roll … until they lost three of their last four. Now their record stands at 11-4 on the season as their star point guard recovers from a concussion that could've been way more than a concussion. The Celtics slump began with a loss to the Kings. Now they'll see the Kings again, potentially with Kemba Walker. The Kings have won five of their last seven games, and their defense has been the answer. The Kings will end their road trip on the East Coast on Wednesday night. The Celtics should be able to win this one and get back on track. West Coast teams on the East Coast don't usually play well.

Key trends: The Celtics are 9-5-1 (64.3%) vs teams allowing over 102 points per game this season.

Early lean: Celtics and Under

Timberwolves @ Hawks (+4, 234.5)

The Hawks are on a six-game losing streak heading into their game against the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves just lost a close game to the Suns by two in a game where they were missing a third of their team. Shabazz Napier, Josh Okogie, Treveon Graham, Jake Layman, and Robert Covington missed this game. Covington is likely going to be playing tonight, which will certainly help the Timberwolves defensively. The Hawks played back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday. On Saturday, they allowed 125 points. The back-to-back showed as they lost by 25. With a day's rest, I still don't trust the Hawks in this one.

Key trends: Minnesota is 5-2 (71.4%) on the road this season.

Early lean: Timberwolves, Under

76ers @ Raptors (+1.5, 212.5)

You all remember the last time these two teams faced each other? Leonard's buzzer beater. Still get chills. Both of these teams are coming off huge victories. This should be a highly-anticipated match-up with low scoring and good defense. Both of these teams have a chance to win the East this year. Defense will be a thing in this one. The Raptors haven't faced as many quality opponents as the 76ers have this season. I'll back the 76ers here in a close defensive game.

Key trends: The 76ers are 4-1 (80%) vs teams that win over 55% of games this season.

Early lean: 76ers and Under

Trail Blazers @ Bulls (PICK, 226.5)

The Bulls got lucky on Saturday. The Trail Blazers need some luck. Portland has lost their last four games and haven't won since they brought in Carmelo Anthony to the squad. The Bulls are healthier and coming off a confidence-boosting victory. Chicago is 3-6 at home, while Portland is just 4-8 on the road. The Blazers should get out of their funk today and beat the Bulls, who were lucky to survive against the Hornets most recently.

Key trends: The Trail Blazers are 4-3 (57.1%) as a road underdog this season.

Early lean: Trail Blazers and Over

Jazz @ Bucks (-7, 223.5)

Utah has become one of the most underrated basketball teams in recent years. They'll take on the Bucks, who have lost only once in their last 12 games. You know who beat the Bucks? The Jazz. This time the Jazz will be on the road in Milwaukee, but they seem to match up well with the Bucks. Both teams struggling to close games in the earlier portion of the season, but both teams have gotten better at just that. The Jazz have won three straight after their win on Saturday against the Pelicans. They were without Gobert and still got the job done. Gobert is questionable to play today. As long as he's good to go today, I'll ride the Jazz to keep this game close.

Key trends: The Bucks are 3-5 (37.5%) vs teams that win over 55 percent of games this season against the spread.

Early lean: Jazz and Over

Lakers @ Spurs (+5, 223.5)

We've never seen the Spurs like this before. They lost eight straight games on a brutal road trip before finally getting a win in the Big Apple. The Spurs allowed an average of 122.4 points in their last eight games. Dejounte Murray sat out Saturday to rest his right knee, but he'll be playing against the Lakers tonight. The Lakers have too much star power to let this one against the Spurs slip away.

Key trends: The Spurs are 1-5 (16.7%) as an underdog against the spread this season.

Early lean: Lakers and Over

Thunder @ Warriors (+6, 215.5)

This matchup used to be a playoff matchup. Not anymore. The Thunder are 5-10 and have lost their last three straight while the Warriors are -- to put it lightly, awful. The last three losses for the Thunder have been close. They haven't been able to finish the job, or in other words, get lucky. The Warriors have been losing games by double-digits regularly. They won't see Draymond Green, D'Angelo Russell, or Kevin Looney (along with Curry and Thompson) in this one. The Thunder should pull away in this one.

Key trends: The Warriors are 5-8 (38.5%) after a day off this season.

Early lean: Thunder and Over

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