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2025 AAC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/20/2025

AAC football predictions Blake Horvath Navy Midshipmen

With four different champions in the past four years and eight unique winners over the past decade, the American Athletic Conference is a paragon of college football parity.

So it makes sense that the league enters the 2025 season without a clear and prohibitive favorite. Instead, the AAC offers the best and worst of what this sport has to offer, depending on your perspective. And heading into this fall it looks primed for chaos, with any squad in the 14-team league capable of beating or losing to any other team on any given Saturday.

The erratic nature of the AAC can make it maddening for common bettors. But if you dig deep enough then a savvy handicapper can find enough ripe opportunities to make this league pay out. Here is my 2025 AAC conference football preview and predictions:

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The Favorite: Tulane (+300)

Tulane is riding the best three-year run in program history (or at least the best run since the 1930’s). The Green Wave have gone 32-10 over the past three seasons, breaking into the Top 20 all three years. They are trying to maintain their place atop the AAC pecking order after back-to-back conference title game losses and significant offseason attrition. Head coach Jon Sumrall avoided a crash in his first fall in New Orleans, guiding a rebuilding Tulane team to nine wins last year. He only has three starters back on offense and three on defense and will once again be reliant on a bevy of transfers. That includes BYU castoff quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who is locked in a four-way battle for the Tulane starting quarterback slot. Tulane closed last year with three straight losses but should get off to a fast start against an easy September agenda.

The Contender: Navy (+380)

Navy is coming off a 10-win effort in 2024 and fielded their best team, statistically, since the 2019 AAC championship squad. The Midshipmen were one of just two teams to beat Army last year and also took out a disinterested Oklahoma squad in a bowl game. Also, Navy’s wins last year came by an average of 19.3 points per game and that victory over OU was the only Navy conquest that came by fewer than 12 points. The Midshipmen have 13 starters back from last year’s squad and quarterback Blake Horvath should be one of the best players in the league. Navy benefits from one of the league’s easiest schedules. And if they can win their home game against rival Air Force then Navy has a great chance of starting the season 7-0 before a tricky November slate.

The Dark Horse: Memphis (+550)

Memphis has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country over the past decade. They’ve posted 11 straight years at .500 or better and have won 10 or more games in five of those seasons. Known for high-flying offense, Memphis is 21-5 over the past two years, with zero AAC titles to show for it. I don’t think this team is better than the last two versions. An easier schedule, and a watered-down conference, could make them more likely to win the league, though. This team only has three total starters back and lost all its production. They were able to spend some money to plug some holes. We’ll see if this group can gel quickly and overcome some numbers that suggest a down season.

The Spoiler: South Florida (+700)

Everyone has been wrong about South Florida two years in a row. In 2023 they were expected to be awful. Instead, they won seven games. Last year, with 15 starters back, the Bulls were pegged as an AAC dark horse. Instead, they started 2-4 and ended up with just seven wins again. Where will Alex Golesh go in Year 3? South Florida has the most difficult schedule in the league. They open against Boise State and have nonconference games at Florida and at Miami. They also have to play North Texas, Memphis and Navy on the road. USF doesn’t have the goods to hold up this brutal itinerary. But the schedule affords them a lot of opportunities to spring some upsets and play the role of spoiler.

The Overvalued Team: Army (+650)

Army made a dream run to the school’s first-even conference championship last year, winning 11 of their first 12 games and rolling Tulane 35-14 in the AAC Championship. Army will have to replace star quarterback Bryson Daily and Kayne Udoh, who combined for over 3,800 total yards and 51 touchdowns in Army’s option attack. Head coach Jeff Monken has guided the Black Knights to nine or more wins in five of the last eight seasons and Army won 10 or more in 2017, 2018 and 2024. He’s been awesome. But the Black Knights aren’t going to sneak up on anyone in the AAC this season and I think they have a letdown after a magical run in their first year in the conference.

The Undervalued Team: Rice (+15000)

Keep an eye on the Owls. This team is not good. But they have a new coach and a bunch of new players and they are switching to an option attack. The option has done wonders for Army and Navy in the AAC and Rice’s version should feature a little more passing. Rice is 35-81 straight up over the last decade and have been below .500 against the spread during that period. I think they will be a sneaky underdog this season and will be a group I keep my eye on.

The Rest:

UTSA (+450): The Roadrunners made the AAC title game in 2021 and 2022 and barely missed it in 2023. Last season they finished a disappointing 4-4 in league play but should be back in form this year with a rebuilt defense. The Roadrunners have nine starters back from an offense that was in the Top 12 nationally in passing and total offense. They will have nine new defensive starters from a group that was No. 103 in points allowed. UTSA has a rough open to the season, facing Texas A&M, Texas State (who beat them 49-10 last year) and playing at Colorado State. If they aren’t too beat up from that opening month they should be back in the AAC mix.

North Texas (+1200): It feels like North Texas has been on the verge of a breakout for about five years now. They haven’t had a winning season since 2018 and have now lost seven straight bowl games. This is Year 3 under Eric Morris but it doesn’t feel like a group primed for a leap forward. North Texas has another soft schedule. If they can take out Army on Sept. 20 then a 4-1 or 5-0 start isn’t a stretch. I still don’t see them getting more than seven wins, though, and I just don’t see it with the Mean Green.

East Carolina (+1800): This is another undervalued potential sleeper in the AAC. East Carolina took off last season when OC Blake Harrell took over head coaching duties from fired Mike Houston. The Pirates went 5-1 with Harrell at the helm and are hoping for that momentum to carry over into this year. Quarterback Katin Houser is back as the offensive triggerman and this group could be an X-factor in the league title race.

UAB (+15000): Trent Dilfer has been a bad joke as a head coach at UAB. The Blazers are 5-17 against FBS competition during his two seasons and they have 10 losses by 20 or more points. I don’t see things going much better in Year 3 with just three starters back. Dilfer hasn’t laid the foundation for anything here. The Blazers have winnable games against Alabama State and Akron. I’ll be surprised if they win more than one game other than that and I don’t expect Dilfer to be coaching here in 2026.

Tulsa (+15000): The basement of the AAC is going to be crowded. And Tulsa will once again be one of the teams fighting for space. The Golden Hurricane have won four games or less five times in eight years and new head coach Tre Lamb has his work cut out for him. Tulsa is 12-24 against the spread over the last three seasons so they might have some value as an ugly dog.

Charlotte (+15000): Biff Poggi took his sleeveless t-shirts (and checkbook) and went home after a comical two-year attempt to make Charlotte instantly relevant. For the third year in a row the 49ers will have a roster with 40 or more new players. Head coach Tim Albin took Ohio to its first MAC championship in nearly 60 years last December. Albin’s first year at Ohio was pretty bad. But he is 31-10 over the last three years. I’m looking for another ugly Year 1 for Albin but he has a chance to turn this program around eventually.

Florida Atlantic (+15000): At 33 years old, head coach Zach Kittley is the youngest head coach in college football. This is his first head gig after stints as an offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, Western Kentucky and Houston Baptist. The Owls haven’t been able to recreate the magic of Lane Kiffin in Boca Raton, with retreads Willie Taggart and Tom Herman both flaming out over the past five seasons. This is yet another team in this league that is completely starting over and there’s no telling what it is going to look like

Temple (+20000): All K.C. Keeler does is win. He’s been a head coach working his way up the ladder since 1993 and his teams are 273-112-1. That includes guiding Sam Houston State as it stepped up from FCS to FBS, going 3-9 in their first year at college’s highest level (2023) before busting out for 10 wins last year. Keeler is from the Philadelphia area and is determined to turn this Temple program around. It won’t happen quickly. But I think under Keeler it will happen.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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