2024 ACC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/19/2024

ACC football predictions Cade Klubnik Clemson Tigers

The ACC got bigger. It didn’t get better.

Desperate to ape the SEC and Big Ten, the ACC expanded its conference with fragments of the splintered Pac-12 (Stanford, California) and SMU. But unlike the two superconferences, the ACC’s moves reeked of desperation and failed to elevate the league.

This league isn’t in a good place. The top two programs, Florida State and Clemson, are locked in a legal battle for the right to leave the ACC. It’s contentious. It’s nasty. And it is a bad look for the conference that the two teams favored to represent the league in the expanded playoffs both desperately want out.

Maybe we can blame Notre Dame. Notre Dame has been the ACC’s White Whale. And just like the Pequod, the Atlantic Coast Conference may go down not because of Notre Dame but because of the league’s foolish quest to chase an uncatchable thing to begin with. The league’s inability to ever truly lure another powerhouse program could lead to its ultimate undoing.

Regardless of past and future failures, the ACC needs to focus on the here and now. Heading into the 2024 season, FSU and Clemson once again appear to be the class of the ACC. Although neither is without its share of question marks and glaring holes. And, as always, there is a fat middle class in the conference that is more than capable of both cannibalizing itself and/or devouring one of the big boys.

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Here is my 2024 ACC football predictions and preview:

The Favorite: Florida State (+300)

What happened to the 2023 Florida State Seminoles is why college football has always been a joke to me. The Seminoles were completely screwed out of a spot in the playoffs. And how much of that disappointment carries over to this campaign will be a major factor in how the 2024 season unfolds. After career rehab in the Pac-12, D.J. Uiagalelei is back in the ACC trying to lead a team to the promised land. He is one of a bevy of transfers that will be trying to fill the shoes of departed stars Jordan Travis, Trey Benson and Keon Coleman on offense. Despite losing six of their top nine players on defense, I’m confident the Seminoles will field an active, athletic group. And with five of their first six games at home or on neutral sites – including the crucial Oct. 5 meeting with Clemson – FSU will have a great opportunity to stake an early claim to the top of the ACC. Be wary, though: after back-to-back years above .500 against the spread (17-10), this might be a team to fade this season. And I am not as high on FSU as most in the mainstream media.

The Contender: Clemson (+350)

Dabo Swinney continues to shake his fist at the clouds, eschewing transfers for a commitment to ‘culture building’. It’s crap. And it will probably lead to his downfall after building up this program to unseen heights. Clemson was a debacle last year. They finished 9-4 and had some nice wins (Notre Dame, North Carolina) and close losses. But anyone that actually watched this team saw a disorganized, sloppy group that got in its own way as much as it did their opponents. Will another year of seasoning and building smooth some of that out? I’m skeptical. Cade Klubnik is just OK. And Dabo’s best teams featured elite studs under center. Even if Clemson gets its clocks cleaned by Georgia in the season opener, they still have a path to the playoffs thanks to a cupcake schedule. But if they get handled by UGA and Florida State, then the air could be out of the balloon for this season by Halloween.

The Dark Horse: Miami (+400)

There are two things that I know to be true. The first is that Miami has a very talented team. The second is that the Hurricanes will absolutely not play up to their potential. What more do you need to see from these guys? Miami has gone 40-34 straight up over the last six years and has one – ONE! – 10-win season in the last two decades! They are basically on the same program level as Kentucky and Minnesota over the last 20 years. But here we go again anyway. Transfers Cam Ward and Damien Martinez should create one of the best backfields on the East Coast. And maybe because those two haven’t grown up in this decrepit Miami program, they won’t be covered in the stench of loser. Mario Cristobal is a joke (Oregon isn’t exactly missing him). And I’m sure he will find a way to squander the deepest and most talented Hurricanes team since the 2019 squad that was supposed to be “back”. Bet Miami at your own risk. And don’t whine when they blow it.

The X-Factors:

Virginia Tech (+1000)

Virginia Tech received five first-place votes in the ACC preseason media poll. Now, Georgia Tech, Cal and Boston College also pulled odd votes as well, so take it all with a grain of salt. Yet, the fact that at least a handful of other people think that VT is a top tier ACC team this year tells you that the Hokies should be players in the league race this fall. Virginia Tech went 5-2 down the stretch last season and welcome back 19 of 22 starters. Quarterback Kyron Drones is a dual threat, and their top two rushers and receivers join him in an attack that should average over 30 points per game. The Hokies also boasted the No. 4 passing defense in the nation last year. And if they can improve against the run (No. 57), this team is going to be tricky.

N.C. State (+650)

Is this the year? That’s been the nagging question hovering over this program most of the past decade. At a certain point, the Wolfpack just need to do it. This team has been threatening to break through and finally win an ACC championship at various points over the last seven years. They always come up short, though, and continue to toil in the second tier of southeastern football programs. Once again they have a deep and capable team. Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall was a great get in the transfer portal, and receiver K.C. Concepcion is a stud. Defensively, they need to replace Payton Wilson. They still have plenty of tough vets on this side, though, and the Wolfpack have allowed an average of about 20 points per game for the last three years. Only two of their first 10 games are away from home. And if they can upset either Tennessee or Clemson, then the Wolfpack could be 9-1 heading into late November.

The Disappointment:

SMU (+1200)

I’m not buying SMU. They are stepping up from the AAC to the ACC. It’s not as if they were some AAC powerhouse. SMU went 11-3 last year but was just 8-4 in 2021 and 7-6 in 2022. The Mustangs’ 23-14 loss to Boston College (as a 12-point favorite) in last December’s Fenway Bowl is a bit of a red flag. No, SMU did not have junior quarterback Preston Stone. But B.C. was/is one of the weakest teams in the ACC. So do we really think this team is going to contend for the top tier of this new league? SMU has a tough stretch where they play BYU, TCU, Florida State and Louisville in a row. And they don’t have a home game in October. The overall schedule is one of the weakest in the ACC. However, there are no Rice’s, Temple’s or North Texas’s on this year’s league schedule. The record will look good at the end of the year, but I see an ATS bust.

North Carolina (+2500)

This team has been nothing but hype since Mac Brown took over in 2019. Even with alleged stars Sam Howell and Drake Maye under center over the last five years, Brown’s Tar Heels have gone a pedestrian 38-27 SU. They’ve been fun offensively, averaging around 35 points per game over the last five seasons, but the Heels just haven’t been able to stop anyone. Unless new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins is a miracle worker, I don’t know why this year it would be any different on that side of the ball. If the Tar Heels win their opener at Minnesota (they beat the Gophers 31-13 last year), they should be 5-0 heading into home games against Pitt and Georgia Tech. If they start 7-0, this will be a prime team to fade down the stretch because they aren’t as good as people think they are.

The Undervalued:

Pittsburgh (+15000)

I feel like Pat Narduzzi has been a little too good for a little too long to simply fall off a cliff. Pitt has been in the Top 25 in six of the last nine years. They are coming off a disastrous 3-9 season that was the result of a young roster, terrible quarterback play, and a difficult schedule. Nate Yarnell and Eli Holstein are locked in a quarterback competition. The winner will have nine other returning offensive starters to work with, including a much-improved line. Narduzzi is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog the last two seasons. That comes after he was 16-8 ATS in that role between 2015-2021. I’m looking for Pitt to be a pesky underdog this year and to have a winning season at the window, even if they don’t get over .500 on the field.

Georgia Tech (+10000)

Brent Key was able to sneak Georgia Tech into a bowl game last year for the first time since Paul Johnson’s departure in 2018. Tech’s offense improved from a putrid 17.2 points per game in 2022 to an exciting 31.1 per game last year. Texas A&M transfer Haynes King had a wild season, turning the ball over 20 times (16 interceptions) but also generating 37 touchdowns. Tech has its top two running backs, three top receivers and four of their starting linemen back, so they should be solid on that side of the ball again. Can the Jackets get stops? It was a major issues last year – including allowing 38 points in a loss to Bowling Green – and they must face several high-powered attacks this season. The Jackets offense will keep them feisty, though, and they could thrive as a double-digit underdog again (7-3 ATS L10).

The Rest:

Louisville (+800) – Jeff Brohm was one of the finalists for national coach of the year in 2023. He did a remarkable job making a quick turnaround last season, getting Louisville into the Top 10. What can he do for an encore? Brohm is casting his lot with transfers after losing his top two rushers (who combined for 1,938 yards and 24 touchdowns), quarterback and five of his top six receivers. While the focus is on the new offensive parts, Louisville’s defense is the real strength of this club. The Cardinals were No. 9 in the country in rushing defense and No. 21 in total defense. This team goes two-deep along the defensive line, and that side of the ball may have to carry the Cards while Tyler Shough and Co. get comfortable.

California (+9000) – Justin Wilcox seems like he is just throwing stuff against the wall. Three years ago, he rode a rugged defense to a near-miss at a bowl game. Last year he sped up his offense with now-departed offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and tried to win shootouts. Cal is a tough gig. Wilcox isn’t doing anything impressive with it, though, and has posted four straight losing years. Cal has one of the most challenging schedules in the country. Thanks to five cross-country flights, Cal will travel around 4,200 miles to their five road games.

Syracuse (+4500) – Like most of Upstate New York, there’s not much going on with Syracuse football, and there hasn’t been anything going on since the late 1990’s. Syracuse is just 49-73 SU over the last 10 years and just closed out its eighth losing season in the last decade. New head coach Fran Brown has injected some life and excitement back into the program. But this is his first head coaching job, so color me skeptical. Brown managed to steal some talented transfers, including former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. Depth is still an issue, though, and there’s no telling how Brown is going to run this circus. An easily schedule, including four straight home games to start the season, should propel this team back to another third-tier bowl game.

Wake Forest (+25000) – Dave Clawson is a master at getting his teams to overachieve. Clawson’s Demon Deacons bumbled to a 4-8 season last year (closing 1-8 after a 3-0 start). However, Clawson hasn’t had back-to-back losing campaigns since 2014-15. A lot rides on two-time transfer Hank Bachmeier under center. If he can turn around the nation’s No. 113 scoring offense, then Wake will be in business. Three of their losses were by five points or less (and on the road) last year. They open with four straight home games this fall. And if they can build some early momentum with a 3-1 open, then Clawson’s magic may kick in and get them back to a bowl game.

Boston College (+17000) – Bill O’Brien was a bit of a surprise hire to take over this squad after Jeff Hafley dodged a likely firing by jumping to the NFL. O’Brien is tasked with guiding a Boston College program that has won six or more games 21 of the last 25 seasons. B.C. has been more consistent than you realize. The Eagles have 17 starters back. And if dual threat Thomas Castellanos can take better care of the ball, then B.C. really could be a troublemaker in this league. Boston College is just 1-13 SU in its last 14 games against ranked opponents and faces two ranked teams in the first 12 days of their season. We’ll find out early what impact O’Brien is having on this group.

Virginia (+17000) – Virginia was a little better than their final record showed last year, losing to James Madison, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville by an average of 3.5 points per game. Virginia went 8-4 against the spread last year and could be a surprise bowl team this year if they can find one or two road wins this season that are like their upset of No. 10 North Carolina in Chapel Hill last October. They have 16 starters back but need to settle on a quarterback (between two mediocre options). Virginia has a very difficult schedule, especially the second half of the year. They are going to have to show significant improvement on both sides of the ball, particularly that No. 101 ranked defense, to top last year’s win total.

Stanford (+50000) – Troy Taylor’s first season went about as expected. Stanford simply hasn’t recovered from 2020, and this program has atrophied over the past half-decade. Is Taylor the guy to rebuild? The jury is very much still out. The Cardinal were outscored by 17.1 points per game last year and lost to Sacramento State at home. The Cardinal have a lot of returning production and will be improved. Their schedule is absolutely brutal, though, and I don’t see them topping last year’s three-win total. But if Taylor does have them pointed in the right direction, this squad should vastly improve at the window after going just 10-26 ATS the last three seasons.

Duke (+15000) – From 1999 to 2007, Duke went 13-90. Those were bleak times. And I think that the Blue Devils are headed there again. Mike Elko was a really good coach and was able to build on what David Cutcliffe built in Durham. They lost their coach, starting quarterback, 12 starters, and a ton of depth. Texas transfer and blue-chip recruit Maalik Murphy will give this program just enough hope. But by Oct. 6, the fans should be turning their attention to the upcoming basketball season.

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2024 ACC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

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