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2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions with Odds to Win World Series and Futures Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/16/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks predictions Corbin Carroll

Another year has passed since the Arizona Diamondbacks miracle run to the World Series. They are not in the same winning window as they were then. The Diamondbacks have a lot of question marks surrounding their roster as their front office decides on investing in the now or waiting out the Los Angeles Dodgers’ dominance. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are a solid 1-2 punch atop the rotation, especially as they wait out the injury of Corbin Burnes, but it is possible that the front office decides to sell and move on from their top-line starters. Their bullpen is another weak area that can heavily turn the state of the franchise from winning to selling. It feels like a rebuild is in the waters for Arizona.

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Summary of Last Season

Last season Arizona struggled to find the win column. They finished the season with an 80-82 record, finishing 14 games out of first place in the NL West. Despite their losing record, they finished the season with a +6-run differential. They finished two games worse than their expected record of 82-80. The Diamondbacks finished 28-40 in one-run or extra innings games.

One of the strengths of this Arizona team was their lineup. They finished sixth in the league in runs, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Their 38 triples led the league, while they also finished eighth in homeruns, 13th in stolen bases, and fifth in OPS. Geraldo Perdomo led the team with a 7.0 WAR. He hit .290, while recording a 20/20 season with 20 homeruns and 27 stolen bases. Perdomo also led the team with 100 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez led the team with 36 homeruns with Corbin Carroll (31) joining him as the only other player to reach the 30-homerun milestone. Carroll, Suarez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all reached the 80-RBI mark on the year, while Carroll led the team with 31 stolen bases.

The weak point for the Diamondbacks was their pitching staff. They finished 23rd in the MLB with a team ERA of 4.49. Despite this, they did finish sixth in the league in quality starts. They did maintain strong consistency with their starting five as they all reached at least 120 innings on the mound. Gallen led the way with 192 innings pitched, though he did have a losing record of 13-15 and a lowly 4.83 ERA. Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez both posted ERAs over 5.00, with Rodriguez having a rotation worse 1.54 WHIP. Out of the bullpen Shelby Miller was the most consistent arm in the bullpen as he pitched 36.1 innings while maintaining a sub-2.00 ERA.

Key Additions/Losses

At the end of the regular season, the Diamondbacks saw relievers Jalen Beeks, Elvin Rodriguez, Kyle Nelson, and Casey Kelly all become free agents. The team traded outfielder Jake McCarthy and utility man Blaze Alexander.

While the subtractions were limited, the additions seem to be plentiful. They brough back both Gallen and Kelly while also adding starters Michael Soroka and Joe Ross, and relievers Isaiah Campbell, Thomas Hatch, Jonathan Loaisiga, Taylor Clarke, Derek Law, Paul Sewald, and Grant Holman. In addition to all their additions to the pitching staff, Arizona also added Nolan Arenado, Carlos Santana, and Oscar Mercado.

Prospect Outlook

Despite the aging and playoff fringe caliber roster, their farm system is not in a good place. This could change depending on the direction the front office goes in before the deadline, but for now their farm system is one of the weakest in the MLB. Their current pool of prospects ranks 24th in the MLB, with just one player in the Top 100. Outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt is the only Top 100 ranked prospect, coming in at 59th on the list. He is expected to boost the speed potential of the team as well as flashing upside in the outfield.

X-Factors

The Front Office- There is a lot of talent on the team, but there is no doubt they are not in a position to compete with the Dodgers or other top-notch teams in the NL. Because of this, the front office has a decision to make regarding their aging stars. Aside from Carroll, they have Ketel Marte, Kelly, Gallen, Burnes, Pfaadt, Rodriguez, Arenado, and Gurriel Jr to deal if they fall out of the playoff race sooner than later. This is a group of players who could contribute to playoff caliber teams, and in return, this is a group of players that could totally reshape the dried-up state of the farm system. The front office has some big decisions to make.

2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Notable Odds:

Win Total: 79.5

World Series Champions- +8000

Pennant Winners- +3500

Division Winners- +2200

NL MVP- Corbin Carroll +2500

NL MVP- Ketel Marte +2500

NL Cy Young- Brandon Pfaadt +15000

NL Cy Young- Merrill Kelly +15000

NL Rookie of the Year- Ryan Waldschmidt +3500

2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

As for the futures surrounding this team, Waldschmidt has some incredible upside and will likely earn regular at-bats early in the season. At +3500 to win the NL Rookie of the Year, he is worth some couch change. Carroll has some 30/30 potential, but he is not a legit MVP threat when Ohtani reigns in the same league. As for the team’s futures, there is not a lot to like for Arizona. I expect the front office to move on and reset their minor league talent. Expect their win total to fall closer to 70 than 80, meaning the under is the way to go for the Diamondbacks win total.

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