2021 Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
If you look up the word “underachievers” in the dictionary, you could very well find a picture of the Arizona Diamondbacks logo. The Diamondbacks have made the postseason just four times since stunning the world and winning their only World Series title in 2001. They enter the 2021 season in a bit of a precarious position as they have an aging roster and are not in a position to start rebuilding or retooling just yet.
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Last season, the Diamondbacks finished with a record of 25-35, which earned them fifth spot in the NL West. They have essentially all the pieces are back from last year’s team, so it’s unlikely that they take a step in the right direction for this season.
The Diamondbacks open the regular season with a seven-game road trip commencing on April 1 in San Diego for four and then three in Colorado. From there, the DBacks welcome the Cincinnati Reds for three, followed by the Oakland Athletics for a mini two-game interleague series. The Diamondbacks are expected to mediocre this year, which is why they are +12500 to win the World Series, +7500 to win the NL Pennant and +5000 to win the NL West. Their season win total sits at 74.5.
Diamondbacks 2021 Projected Lineup
Long gone are the days of Paul Goldschmidt hitting everything and propelling the Diamondbacks to win after win. As of writing this, the Diamondbacks batting lineup looks something like this:
- Kole Calhoun
- Ketel Marte
- Christian Walker
- David Peralta
- Eduardo Escobar
- Carson Kelly
- Nick Ahmed
- Tim Locastro
- Pitchers Spot
One look at this lineup and you’ll quickly realize why the win total for the Diamondbacks is so low. The batting order is brutal. The only player with pop in his bat is Kole Calhoun. And despite managing 16 homeruns in last year’s shortened season, he hit just .226 overall. The projected stats are a fraction better this year as he’s slated for 26 homeruns and .233 on the season.
Behind him, the likes of Marte, Walker and Escobar are all projected to reach the 20 homerun plateau. However, based on what we saw last year from that trio of players, the projections might be reaching a bit.
Further down the lineup, you’ll find Carson Kelly, who will do the catching, Nick Ahmed, who will play the shortstop position, and Tim Locastro, who will play center field. Kelly has been with the Diamondbacks for two seasons and put up 18 homeruns and 47 RBIs in 2019. Marte and Ahmed are coming off rather disappointing 2020 campaigns that saw Marte hit just two homeruns and knock in 17 RBIs in 45 games and Ahmed contribute five dingers and 29 RBIs in 60 games. Any uptick in production from the latter two players will only contribute to the team’s success.
Diamondbacks 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer
The Diamondbacks’ rotation this year has all the makings to be great, but it also has the potential to go south in a hurry. The Diamondbacks will trot out Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly as the five pitchers in their rotation.
Gallen was by far the best starter for them last year as he started 12 games kept his ERA to a very respectable 2.75. He managed to win just three of the five games he took a decision in, but that wasn’t for a lack of trying. The team (aka the batting order and bullpen) simply weren’t very good last year. Gallen is projected to have another solid year, with an ERA just above three in 28 projected starts.
Behind him, you’ll find former World Series winner and MVP, Bumgarner. Bumgarner has fallen off rather quickly since his time with the Giants, but the Diamondbacks are hoping he has a few good years left in the tank to mentor the younger pitchers on the staff. He had a poor season last year, with a 6.42 ERA in nine starts, so a bounce-back year could be in the cards. Beyond those two, the rest of the rotation is projected to have ERAs approaching 5.00, so you can see why the Dbacks figure to be a team on the decline.
Another problem with the Dbacks is their bullpen. They were atrocious last year, so they made a few moves and went out and acquired Joakim Soria from Oakland to do the closing and Tyler Clippard from Minnesota to be a setup man. Soria saved just two games last year but is projected to save 23 this year.
Diamondbacks’ 2021 Predictions
FanGraphs projects Arizona to finish this season with a 74-88 record, which would be good enough for fourth in the NL West. At some stage in the season, the lineup is going to get hot, and it should be able to win some games. However, for the most part, this lineup is bad and likely will finish among the worst teams in most major offensive categories. Also, as I mentioned above, the pitching staff is walking a very thin line and I have to think they’ll be worse than they will be good. Give me the under.
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