2025 Big 12 Tournament Predictions and Betting Odds
Kansas who?
Houston has bullied its way to the top of the Big 12 food chain with back-to-back regular season titles. But if the Cougars are going to truly usurp the Jayhawks as the Big 12’s new standard bearer, they will have to accomplish what Kansas did seemingly every year: win the Big 12 conference tournament.
On the other side of the bracket are those wounded Jayhawks. Kansas has won half of the league’s last 18 conference tournaments, although that rate has slowed in recent years with just one banner in five seasons. The Jayhawks have been a huge disappointment this season, finishing in just sixth place in the Big 12 after opening the years as the nation’s preseason No. 1. Yet there’s still time for redemption for Bill Self’s group if they can get it going this week.
Are these two powerhouse programs on a collision course for the finals? Or will either Houston or Kansas trip up against one of the seemingly endless number of sleepers – Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, Baylor, etc. – lying in wait throughout this bracket?
The 2025 Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 11, and will be held at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO. Here is Doc’s Sports Big 12 Tournament preview and predictions:
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The Favorite: Houston (-105)
The Cougars went 19-1 in league play this year. And they didn’t just beat teams: they demolished them. Houston won its league games by an average of 12.4 points per game. They were the only team in the Big 12 to hold opponents below 60 points per game, and they have lost just once – by one point, in overtime, at Texas Tech – since Nov. 30. The veteran backcourt of L.J. Cryer, who is trying to become the first player in college hoops history to make the Final Four with two different teams, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp can do it all on both ends of the court. And Houston simply batters opponents into submission with a relentless, physical defense and clutch shot after clutch shot.
The Contender: Iowa State (+600)
When the Cyclones are healthy, they are one of the best teams in the entire country. The problem is that for the last month they have rarely been fully healthy. Guard Keshon Gilbert has missed three of the last five games with a groin injury. Stretch-four Milan Momcilovic, the team’s best shooter, missed a month of league play. And super sixth man Curtis Jones missed a late February game against Houston. The Cyclones have gone just 8-7 over their last 15 games and are just 2-3 in their last five. Can they find their form this late in the year?
The Sleeper: Arizona (+850)
On the surface, the Wildcats look like a team headed in the wrong direction at the worst time of the year for a slump. They are just 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games. A closer inspection shows a team that was a very tough out, losing three of those five games by a combined eight points. Arizona is tough, physically and mentally. Their lack of depth is a major problem. But super senior Caleb Love gives Arizona one of the most explosive (and inconsistent) scorers in the country and he gives them a chance every time they step on the court. Arizona has a double bye and would be lying in wait for Kansas – who just beat the Wildcats last Saturday in Lawrence – and a rematch.
The Spoiler: Kansas State (+3300)
I don’t know if any team in the Big 12 took – and made – as many tough/bad shots as Kansas State this year. If the Wildcats showed a little better judgment, they might be over .500. Instead, they are an afterthought in the league despite spending heavily in NIL free agency. There are some decent pieces here. And if they can squeeze by a young Baylor team in the second round, then K-State would have momentum rolling into a rematch with No. Texas Tech (who would be playing their first game). Stranger things can happen. And if you’re looking for a lower-ranked team to get hot and win a few games, look here.
Team To Watch: Kansas (+3300)
The Jayhawks have won three games in a row only twice this year: once during their 7-0 start to the season and back between Jan. 5-11. They are 8-8 since then and have just never gelled. Kansas is another team that tried to build its roster with transfers. It hasn’t worked. Hunter Dickinson is still a mountain in the middle. But his glaring lack of leadership and this team’s shaky chemistry continue to hold them back. Is there anything special about this team? Or are they headed for a March meltdown?
Potential Early Round Matchups To Watch:
No. 11 Utah vs. No. 14 Central Florida (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, March 11)
Utah fired its coach out of nowhere three weeks ago and looks like a team just waiting for the season to end. Central Florida is 3-9 in its last 12 games and hasn’t won outside of its home state in two months. So why bother with this game? Because there will be plenty of size, talent and skill on the court when these two try to end each other’s season. These two played a tight 76-72 game on Feb. 23 (a UCF win), and I can see another matchup decided in the last 90 seconds.
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5 Iowa State (12:30 p.m., Thursday, March 13)
BYU has won eight straight games, and they are one of the hottest teams in the country. That includes a double-OT win at Iowa State on March 4, and a rematch could lead to another classic game. BYU is traditionally a poor road team, but they’ve won six true road games in league play this year and have been shooting the lights out during this current winning streak.
2025 Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions: Houston has been an awesome team to watch over the past five-plus seasons, going 152-23 since the start of the 2020 campaign. However, all that they have to show for the Sampson resurgence is a couple of Big 12 tournament titles. March hasn’t been kind to the Cougars, and I don’t know that they have enough scoring punch to raise a banner here. There are future NBA players all over the Big 12. And all it takes is one or two of them to get hot, and this bracket can get blown to bits.
In the 27-year history of the Big 12, only one team (No. 5 Iowa State in 2019) outside of the top four seeds has won the conference tournament. I’ll follow that trend – along with Houston’s poor form in the postseason – and say that either Texas Tech, ISU or Arizona will be able to knock out Houston and cut down the nets.
Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 13 of 16 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.
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