2023 Boston Celtics Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/26/2023

The Boston Celtics have been amongst the league’s top contenders for the last 7 seasons, qualifying for the Conference Finals in 5 of those years. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are desperate to earn their first career titles, and the Celtics are once again expected to put together another solid regular season, and a deep playoff run to go with it.

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Offseason Recap

After running back the same lineup in back to back seasons, the Celtics are finally changing things up. The duo of Tatum and Brown are here to stay, after Brown signed a 5-year, $304 million dollar contract, making him the highest paid player in league history. However, the rest of the starting lineup will look very different, after they shipped out former DPOY Marcus Smart, along with the always consistent Grant Williams. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis will go a long way down low, but it still feels as though this team is taking a step back from the unit that has found so much consistent success.

Porzingis put up a career high 23.2 PPG last season, anchoring the Wizards in the paint. In Boston, he’ll have a slightly different role, as the Celtics already have Al Horford and Robert Williams to play down low. His 7-foot-3 frame will do wonders on the glass. And if he can get favorable matchups against power forwards, he will be an excellent option in the post. His fragility is a concern, as he hasn’t played more than 65 games since 2017, averaging just 44 regular season games played over the last 6 seasons.

Season Expectations

There is one expectation in Boston, and that is to win a trophy. The NBA championship is certainly the top priority. However, for a club as historic as the Celtics, the inaugural in-season tournament crown would also be a good pickup. Celtic fans have gotten used to the team dominating the regular season, as they’ve only finished outside the top 5 once in the last 8 years, but playoff success has eluded them. Their win total of 54.5 wins is the highest mark in the league, and the success of this franchise rests on Brown and Tatum. There are arguments to be made that while Brown is the highest paid player in the league, he isn’t even the best on his team. In remarkable fashion, Jayson Tatum has seen a majority of his stats improve every single season he’s played in the NBA. His 30.1 PPG, 8.8 Rebounds, and 4.6 Assists from last season were once again all career highs, and the 25-year-old is seriously entering his prime. While Brown may not be the star, his 26.6 PPG, 6.9 Rebounds, and 3.5 Assists were also all career highs, and the pair has formed the most fearsome duo in the league.

It is more than understandable that the Celtics have the highest expectations in the league, as they have a complete lineup surrounding a pair of super stars. They are the title favorites at +470 for the third straight season, and the Boston faithful will feel it is finally their time to shine. The depth they lost in the offseason may result in a thin lineup for the second half of the season, but a strong coaching staff is confident their bench players are capable of stepping up when they are needed.

Schedule Breakdown

The Celtics have a very balanced schedule, as their longest road trip is 6 games, and it is in the tail end of the season in late March. The most concerning stretch is during the in-season tournament, as the Celtics play 5 games in 8 nights, including a pair of group stage road games. An early season jolt of pressure filled games may be just what the Celtics need to keep the intensity in the dressing room. And if they can navigate their soft group, a trip to Vegas may be on the cards.

Boston Celtics Odds

The Celtics are once again the title favorites and have the highest regular season win total. The 54.5 mark is the highest in the league, but it is still less than the 57 wins they put up last season. They are an extremely short +150 to be the top Eastern Conference seed, just edging out the Bucks (+220) and Heat (+450). It is very difficult to rationalize betting on the Celtics at these odds. They have been among the best in the East for the last few years but haven’t been able to secure the top seed since 2017. They certainly have the firepower to succeed, and the question marks surrounding the other Eastern Conference top dogs makes this a wide open race. However, I can’t get behind the idea of the Celtics getting the job done at just +150.

An intriguing market is the in-season tournament. The nature of the tournament is wide open, as a single loss could send a top contender packing. A minimum of 3/4 group stage games must be won, and even a single loss ensures their fate is not secure. A group featuring the Raptors, Bulls, Magic, and Nets should allow the Celtics to win out, but once again the -130 odds cannot be justified. The +700 to win the tournament is tempting, but it’s impossible to deny the Celtics are clearly overvalued in a very competitive league.

In the postseason, the C’s are +470 to win the championship, and +210 to reach the Finals. If they can get that top seed, this is well within reach. However, the lack of depth in the backcourt could see them fade down the stretch. If Brown or Tatum pick up any sort of an injury, the top-rated Celtics are suddenly a middle of the pack team.

2023-2024 Season Predictions

They will once again fall short. It’s not that I don’t think the Celtics are capable of reaching and winning the Finals, it’s just the odds are far too generous, and we’ve seen them falter before. Whether it’s the shock 2023 Heat Finals run, or a tough 2022 Warriors matchup, or a first round 2021 Nets drubbing, the Celtics consistently find ways to lose when it matters most. It is an undeniable fact that Tatum and Brown comprise a top 3, if not the best, duo in the league, but they just can’t win in the clutch. They will once again put together a solid regular season, in the 52-30 range, but the distraction of the tournament combined with a thinning bench could see the Celtics drop some early winnable games. They’d love to win the tournament, but not at the cost of a championship. It’s difficult to envision any fruitful postseason run with this lineup, as Porzingis hasn’t been able to live up to his early career hype and has bounced from team to team in recent years. Without a solid third option, the Celtics will be able to beat up on the weak teams but won’t get over the line against the elite. A in-season tournament Finals loss will leave a bitter taste in Celtic fan’s mouths, before they come crashing out in the Eastern Conference Finals for the 5th time in 9 seasons. They are a good team but are one of the most overvalued teams in the league. Steer clear of any Celtics betting markets, other than a sprinkle on Under 54.5 Wins.

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