2025-26 Boston Celtics Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 9/25/2025

The Boston Celtics have been the team to beat in the Eastern Conference for the last few seasons, but the tides are shifting after their roster was flipped upside down this offseason. The Celtics finished in the top two in the East in four straight seasons, reaching the Finals twice and winning one championship in that span. However, Jayson Tatum’s injury, combined with an eventful offseason, leaves the Celtics as long shots once again. Can the Celtics rally around their core to stay on top, or will Boston potentially miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014?

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Boston Celtics Offseason Recap

The Boston Celtics were always going to have a difficult offseason. Their looming luxury tax bills, combined with an aging core, left them handcuffed, but Jayson Tatum’s Achilles tear made blowing up the core a bit easier to accept. Tatum could potentially return in the final weeks of the season, but it was clear the Celtics would struggle to contend without him on the court.

On July 7th, the Celtics traded both Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in separate transactions. Holiday and Porzingis were both starters for Boston, but have begun to decline with age. Holiday was sent to the Trail Blazers in exchange for Anfernee Simons in a one-for-one player swap. It’s a puzzling move for the rebuilding Trail Blazers, but acquiring 26-year-old Simons is a big win for the Celtics. Holiday is still one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he also began to pick up his offensive game in the tail end of his Celtics tenure. Being a crucial part of an NBA championship-winning team with two different franchises is not an easy task, and Holiday has proven his worth time and time again on both ends of the court. Porzingis was traded to Atlanta for peanuts, but the oft-injured unicorn never really found his groove with the Celtics. Boston also lost Al Horford, who is still a free agent, and their front court is very thin as a result.

The Celtics have a few new names coming to Boston, but Simons remains the top acquisition. Simons is a reliable 20-point scorer and suited up for a career-best 70 games last season. The best ability is availability, and Simons will need to stay healthy for Boston if he expects to lead this team into the playoffs. While the backcourt is taken care of, the Celtics are desperate for frontcourt talent. Sam Hauser and Neemias Queta are expected to start the season, with Chris Boucher being their primary option coming off the bench. Boucher is a good depth piece, but considering he couldn’t crack a banged-up, tanking Raptors team last season, it is hard to envision him having a breakout year in Boston.

Boston Celtics Season Expectations

The expectations in Boston are rightfully muted. Two of their five starters from last year have departed, and Tatum is unlikely to suit up until the final weeks of the year. This has allowed the Celtics to prioritize their future while ramping up for another potential title charge in the 2026-27 season. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are the last men standing, but the lack of size on this roster makes the Celtics hard to take seriously. Brown, White, Payton Pritchard, and Simons are the four best players on this roster, and none of them is taller than 6’5. Brown has already proven he can lead this team on both ends of the court, while White and Pritchard are the definition of microwave scorers. This isn’t a team that will be eliminated from playoff contention in March, but it is a team that will struggle to avoid the play-in tournament, or even make the playoffs altogether. Losing a team's first (to injury), third, sixth, and seventh leading scorers is never easy to replace, and the Celtics didn’t do enough to replicate that talent on the court.

Boston Celtics Schedule Breakdown

The Celtics open up the season with four road games in their first six, with their only home matchups coming against the 76ers and Cavaliers. A poor start for a team that is used to winning could immediately dent their title aspirations. In the NBA Cup, things don’t get any easier as the Celtics find themselves in a tough group with the Magic, Pistons, 76ers, and Nets. Winning three or all four games needed to advance will be the uphill battle with Tatum still on the sidelines. Their longest road trip is a five-game set from Boxing Day until January 3rd, but matchups during that trip against the Trail Blazers, Jazz, and Kings will prove winnable.

Boston Celtics Odds

The Celtics entered the season as outright title favorites at this time last year, fresh off their first championship in 15 years. Flash forward a year, and the story couldn’t be more different. Boston has a win total of 41.5 and is projected to be a bang-average team in the Eastern Conference. They have secured 50+ wins in four straight years, but have +580 odds to reach that mark in the 2025-26 season. Thanks to a lack of bona fide contenders in the East, the Celtics still have -180 odds to make the playoffs with +110 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. In the NBA Cup, the Celtics have the fourth-best odds to win their group at +390, behind the Magic (+210), Pistons (+270), and 76ers (+280). The Celtics have the 15th-best odds to win the NBA championship at +4500, and the 7th-best odds to win the East at +1600.

2025-26 Boston Celtics Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Boston fanbase has been able to enjoy the last decade on the court, but will struggle this season. Boston is favored to make the playoffs at -180, but I am not as convinced that this team will be able to compete in the first half of the year. The front office could always get antsy and pull the trigger on a deadline deal, but as we saw with the 76ers last year, the fall from grace can be swift and unforgiving. I expect Boston to finish with a 37-45 record and to barely sneak into the play-in tournament (+110 odds). However, assuming Tatum can return to action for the end of the season and Boston qualifies for the play-in tournament, they will likely go on to make the NBA playoffs. The +130 odds on the Celtics to miss the playoffs aren’t long enough to tail, but we will be taking under 41.5 wins for our primary pick. I know the league loves its threes, but a frontcourt of Hauser, Queta, and Boucher simply won’t cut it. They will get bullied on the inside more than they realize, and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Celtics miss out on the play-in tournament altogether. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to fade teams with the current NBA betting markets, so we will hammer their under and feel free to parlay it with another future to maximize your tied-up bankroll.

Top Pick: Boston Celtics Under 41.5 Wins -105

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Start:	October 8, 2025 @ 11:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2025-26 Boston Celtics Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

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