2023 Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
The Cleveland Cavaliers made the playoffs last season for the first time in the post-Lebron James era. A swift first-round exit to the New York Knicks was a bittersweet ending to a promising campaign, and their young core will be eager to build on last season to set up a deep playoff run.
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Cleveland Cavaliers Offseason Recap
The front office wasn’t happy to just sit on the budding young core of the team and quickly got to work at tinkering the lineup. Robin Lopez, Kevin Love, and Cedi Osman were shown the door to make way for Max Strus and Georges Niang. Strus will instantly slot into the starting lineup, creating a devastating starting 5 for the Cavaliers. Strus brings a 3-point shooting efficiency rarely seen in the league with him to Cleveland, bolstering the unit that finished 7th in the league in 3-point percentage last season. Strus sank the 21st most 3’s in the league last season with 197 (2.4 per game), and a backcourt with Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Strus will be able to consistently spread the floor and open up passing lanes. While Niang will be on the bench to start the season, his 40.1% clip from deep was good for 35th in the league last season, and the Cavs are suddenly among the best in the league from beyond the arc.
Cleveland Cavaliers Season Expectations
The Cavaliers are expected to build on their first-round exit from last season. And if their Starting 5 can stay healthy, there is no reason to expect anything less. Donovan Mitchell has already proven that he is one of the best point guards in the league and further emphasized that fact when he dropped 71 points against the Chicago Bulls last season. He is quick, hardworking, and keeps his head up when driving towards the hoop. His backcourt partner, Darius Garland, is the perfect complement to his style of play, as Garland is a primary ball handler but will always spread the floor when the opportunity presents itself. The addition of a sharpshooter like Strus will generate easier matchups, as if Strus gets left alone in the corner, he will consistently punish defenses. There is a concern surrounding defense. While the Cavaliers had the best defense in the league last season, Strus’s addition into the starting lineup could see their best attribute compromised. However, while he is a below average defender, his teammates are more than capable of picking up the slack, as Strus’s contributions on the offensive end offset any defensive liabilities. In the paint, Jarrett Allen played through injuries for long stretches last season. If their big man can stay healthy, they will once again have one of the league’s best paint patrollers swatting away the easy layups. Their win total is set at 50.5 wins, which is very close to their 51-31 record last season, and puts them 3rd in the East, only behind the Bucks and the Celtics. If the Cavaliers can stay healthy, there is no reason to doubt their potential to reach the second round and beyond.
Cleveland Cavaliers Schedule Breakdown
The Cavaliers begin the season on the road, with seven of their first 11 games played away from home. However, matchups against the Nets, Thunder, Pacers, and Trail Blazers could allow the team to build early road momentum and set them up nicely for the rest of the season. Seven of the next eight are played at home, and the Cavs don’t leave the East Coast until 2024. There is no doubt what the most daunting set of games are, as games 75 through 79 are all on the road, against the Nuggets, Suns, Lakers, and Clippers. This will be an excellent late season test for the Cavaliers and will give them a little taste of high intensity basketball before the playoffs roll around. They cap off the year with three straight at home. And if they avoid the play-in tournament, they’ll have 2+ weeks straight in Cleveland to close out the campaign.
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Odds
The Cavaliers are expected to finish 3rd in the East with 50.5 wins and are virtually a shoe-in for a playoff appearance at -1200. They are still a lengthy +850 to secure the top seed in the East, and they look destined for another middling playoff seed. While I can never justify a -1200 bet, the Cavaliers are a lock to secure a playoff position. However, we will look elsewhere for value. In the play-in tournament, the Cavaliers got drawn with the 76ers, Hawks, Pacers, and Pistons. The turmoil in Philadelphia could result in a slow start for the 76ers, and the Cavs are coming in at +200 to win the group and +1300 to take home the inaugural championship. It remains to be seen how seriously the tournament is taken, but there is no doubt the Cavaliers have their sights set on their first playoff win since 2018. They are still a lengthy +2800 to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, but they will undoubtedly be a key playoff figure in the East for years to come.
2023-24 Cleveland Cavaliers Season Predictions
The Cavaliers will win their first playoff series without LeBron James since 1998. They have the lineup needed to secure home-court advantage and the favorable first round matchup that goes with it. Mitchell and Garland form one of the most exciting yet effective backcourts in the league, Evan Mobley and Allen are two of the best young big men in the league, and Strus has the shooting to complement his teammates.
The Cavaliers will not only make waves in the league, but I expect them to go 55-27, easily clearing their 50.5 win total, securing the 2nd seed in the process. In the postseason, they won’t be able to make the Finals, but a conference championship appearance will more than satisfy the fan base. A sprinkle on an Eastern Conference win at +1100 isn’t crazy and could result in some solid hedging opportunities late in the postseason. However, the best bet for the Cavs is a plain and simple Over 50.5 wins, as in a long season, this group will show their talent, and consistently pick up victories.
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