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2025-26 Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/1/2025

Dallas Mavericks predictions Anthony Davis

The Dallas Mavericks are entering their first full season without Luka Doncic on their roster, and there are few teams with more pressure to deliver than the Mavericks. Dallas got lucky in the draft lottery to select Cooper Flagg with the first overall pick, and they are once again a dangerous team in the Western Conference. There is no shortage of talent in Dallas, but can they put it all together and navigate a crowded Western Conference without their franchise superstar?

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Dallas Mavericks Offseason Recap

The biggest storyline in the offseason was the Dallas Mavericks winning the draft lottery and selecting Cooper Flagg with the first overall pick. Flagg will slot into the Mavericks' starting lineup this season and is expected to make an instant impact. The Mavericks were only in the draft lottery thanks to a failed play-in tournament showing, but there is realistic optimism that this team could be replicating their 2024 NBA Finals appearance sooner rather than later. 

There are many offensive superstars out of college that end up flopping in the NBA, but rarely do defensive masterminds like Flagg fall short of expectations. Flagg is a legitimate two-way player and has the potential to become one of the greatest at both ends of the court. It is hard to shake the ongoing comparison to Kawhi Leonard as he enters his first NBA season. Flagg can defend multiple positions just like Kawhi and can use his length and IQ to disrupt passing lanes. He would prefer to stay close to the hoop, but with Anthony Davis patrolling the paint, Flagg may need to venture into the open court to remain effective. One thing is for sure: there will be nothing easy inside for their opponents when Flagg and Davis are on the court together. The Mavericks will be hoping Flagg can develop a perimeter shot as Leonard did throughout his career. Flagg will start as a pure forward on the offensive end until he earns respect from his defenders, and it’s frightening to think about what Flagg can do if he starts knocking down deep balls. His offense is not why he was drafted first overall, but as a pure freshman with plenty of upside, that aspect of his game will develop sooner rather than later. 

The big departure for the Mavericks was Spencer Dinwiddie, who signed with the Hornets. Dinwiddie played a crucial role in covering for Kyrie Irving when he got injured, and now leaves a gaping hole at point guard. Irving is expected to be back in January, but that leaves lots of games for the Mavericks to fall out of the playoff race in a bustling Western Conference. D’Angelo Russell has joined the Mavericks to offset that departure, but Russell’s scoring is lacking in both volume and efficiency. 

Dallas Mavericks Season Expectations

The Mavericks were forced to deal with a lengthy list of injuries last season, and their ceiling this year depends on who can stay healthy. Flagg should be a reliable player for 82 games at just 20 years old, but their other towering star, Anthony Davis, couldn’t be further from that. Davis has struggled with injuries throughout his career, with the latest one being a detached retina. A successful offseason surgery means he is expected to suit up on opening day, but he will need protective glasses for the rest of his career. His eyes aren’t the only concern, as Davis has missed time with groin, adductor, thigh, foot, calf, plantar, ankle, shoulder, elbow, hip, and wrist injuries. Those were his confirmed injuries last season alone, and the list grows if we look further back in his career. 

However, when Davis is healthy and on the court, his impact is noticeable. He is a force at both ends of the court, creating his own shots in the paint while swatting away others on defense. Flagg and Davis alone could carry this team in a playoff run, and the expected addition of Irving midway through the year is the cherry on top. That trio can win the NBA championship if they are all healthy, but that is a massive if heading into the new season. 

Dallas Mavericks Schedule Breakdown

The Mavericks open up the season with five straight home games, with the first three coming against the Spurs, Wizards, and Raptors. A soft start gives the Mavericks a chance to kick off their season on the right foot, and an early losing streak would immediately dent their postseason aspirations. In fact, 13 of their first 18 are at home, with one Mexico City game mixed into that stretch. What that does mean is the Mavericks have a few lengthy road trips, with a six-game trip in February and a five-game trip in March. 

Dallas Mavericks Odds

The Dallas Mavericks have a win total of 41.5 games as they are expected to hover around the .500 mark this season. They have -110 odds on both sides to make or miss the playoffs, coupled with +100 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. In the playoffs, they have +2200 odds to win the Western Conference, the 8th lowest, and +4000 odds to win the NBA Finals. In the NBA Cup, Dallas is alongside the Lakers, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Pelicans. They have +600 odds to win the group and +8000 odds to win the NBA Cup. 

The Mavericks find themselves in a difficult Western Conference, and their playoff aspirations will depend on just two things. One. Can Anthony Davis stay healthy this season and suit up for 60+ games? Two. What will the team’s record be when Kyrie Irving returns midway through the year? Dallas cannot afford to be at a record of around 15-25 when Irving returns, and it will likely take 45+ wins to secure the 8th seed in the West. 

2025-26 Dallas Mavericks Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Dallas Mavericks could finish 30-52 or 52-30, and I wouldn’t be surprised. The health of their players will determine their aspirations. The positive side of this kind of team is that it makes Dallas Mavericks futures incredibly easy to make. There is no reason to try and guess if Dallas will have a slightly better or worse season than expected, and you might as well shoot for the stars with your future picks. It has the added benefit of tying up a smaller portion of your bankroll, and the first pick we will make is the Dallas Mavericks to win 50+ games this season at +470 odds. If Davis and Flagg both stay healthy, while Irving seamlessly slots alongside the duo after his injury, this is a very attainable target. If not, the Mavericks will crash and burn, and we will be happy we avoided the -110 odds on their win total. For the second pick, we will take Cooper Flagg to win rookie of the year at -195. He is an understandably big favorite, but I really don’t see how he doesn’t win this award if he stays healthy. He will have no shortage of shooting chances with the current Dallas roster, and he has all the media attention on him before he even steps on the court. If it is a remotely close race for rookie of the year, Flagg will get the nod and take home the silverware. 

Pick: Dallas Mavericks 50+ Wins +470

Pick: Cooper Flagg Rookie of the Year -195

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