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Free Super Bowl Picks 2021

by Chris Vasile - 2/4/2021

Antonio Brown Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We are now just a few days away from Super Bowl Sunday, and I couldn’t be more excited. The more I read into the game, the more I think this Super Bowl has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls in history. I mean, in one corner you have the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, leading a very potent Bucs’ offense with a coach who is trying to win his first Super Bowl as a head coach but third overall. In the other corner, you have the best quarterback in the game today – Patrick Mahomes – who is leading his Chiefs side on their quest to repeat as champions and start a dynasty of their own. Both offenses are averaging more than 28 points per game. And unless mother nature has other ideas, we should see plenty of fireworks on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

As of writing this, the Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites with the total set at 56. The line opened up with the Chiefs laying -3.5 but has since been bet down to the key number of three and has held steady for the last few days. The total is also down a point-and-a-half and appears to be going lower as we move closer to kick off with expected rain in the forecast. I’m not going to worry about all of that, though. I’ve come up with some excellent and unique bets that I believe can win us some money on Sunday.

How Many Players Will Have A Passing Attempt

“Over” 2.5 +115, “Under” 2.5 -150

Unless Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady gets injured or has to leave the game for any reason, I see there being value on the under 2.5 players. Think about it. You have arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady under center, playing against Mahomes, who is the only quarterback in the game that can arguably catch Brady in terms of greatness. Do you really think these two veteran coaches are going to want to take the ball out of either of their quarterbacks’ hands and allow a receiver or running back -- heck, even a punter on a fake punt -- throw the football in the biggest game of the season? These two teams stack up extremely well. And unlike in past years, where we got the Philly Special, or have players that can throw the ball as well as Julian Edelman can, I don’t believe either one will feed the need to go deep into their call sheet and pull out a wide receiver pass. I think under has value at this number, and I’ll be playing it with extreme confidence.

Pick: “Under” 2.5 -150

Will the Game Be Tied Again after 0-0

Yes -165, No +125

I think the value lies with yes.  I think this game is going to be a rather close contest throughout, and I don’t see either team going up and down the field and scoring two or three unanswered times. The easiest and quickest way to get this to cash is to hope both teams score a touchdown on their opening possession, and that way we can cash a ticket before one team pulls too far ahead. For what it’s worth, I think this game has a good shot to go to overtime, so I do believe at some point this game is going to be tied again after 0-0.

Pick: “Yes” -165

Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game?

Yes -170, No +130

This prop bet basically piggybacks off the above prop. I believe at some point in the second half both of these teams will be tied or relatively close to each other in terms of the score. I think this game is going to be a one-possession game and perhaps the offense that has the ball last will manufacture a game-winning drive. Nonetheless, with a back-and-forth game like I expect, the value lies with NO as it doesn’t matter who scores first because both teams will be right there at the end with a chance to grab the victory.

Pick: No +130

Best Six-Point Teaser

Tampa Bay +9 and "over" 50

Based on where the point spread currently sits, this is the ideal teaser that we recommend because you are teasing the point spread through the key number of seven and are getting one of the best teams in the league as more than a touchdown underdog. The Bucs have been firing on all cylinders over the last two months of the season. Their offense is clicking as they average nearly 30 points per game, and their defense is coming off two excellent performances where they bogged down Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. If you believe the Bucs can win this game but don't want to take them on the ML as a +140 underdog, you can grab as many points as possible and enjoy a comfortable wager. As for the "over" in this teaser, you have to believe Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to score some points. Therefore, with both teams averaging 28+ points per game, this game should fly over the total.

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