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Free Super Bowl Props Predictions 2020


by Chris Vasile - 1/30/2020

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers; Hard Rock Stadium, 6:40 p.m. EST. Feb 2, 2020.

Super Bowl LIV is fast approaching and we couldn't be more excited (or torn) about the big game. In one corner, you have the high-octane Chiefs, who would love to put 50 points on the board and beat you 50-47 every game. In the other corner, you have a 49ers team who dominates you at the line of scrimmage and runs the football tremendously well while relying on their defense to shut down the opposition. They say style makes the fight, and this game has the makings of being one of the best Super Bowls in recent memory. Both teams are capable of winning this game, which is why the spread is what it is, and it wouldn't shock anyone to see either team win.

We saw how good the 49ers were defensively against the Vikings and Packers. They most certainly lived up to their rankings of second in yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed, eighth in points allowed and second in third-down conversions allowed. Some of you will be optimistic about the team's ability and believe they can shut down Patrick Mahomes, while some of you may think Mahomes is just far too gifted and has too many weapons around him to be contained. The key to this game will be the Niners offense and whether or not they can run the football effectively and keep the game out of the realm of needing Jimmy Garappolo to win the game for them. The Chiefs defense can be exploited. However, with an extra week of preparation, I don't think either team will catch the other off guard.

As for the Chiefs, we know how explosive the Chiefs can be on offense as we saw it first-hand in both the Divisional Round and AFC title game. They proudly deserved the rankings of top-10 in all offensive categories except rushing, which they sit 23rd. The key to this game will be the Chiefs' third-down conversion percentage (47.5, first overall) against the 49ers' second-ranked third-down defense. For the Chiefs, they'll have to be better on defense than they were against the Titans as spotting teams double-digit leads is living extremely dangerously. The Chiefs will need their 26th ranked rushing defense to step up in a big way against a 49ers team who ranks second in running the football.

As of writing this, the Chiefs are favored by 1.5 points and the total is set at 54.5. The 49ers could be a great teaser option in order to get them up to over the key number of seven using a six-point teaser. However, I've circled two Super Bowl props and some 49ers vs. Chiefs predictions that I believe give us the best chance to win some money on this game.

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Team Total Points - Kansas City Chiefs "Over" 13.5 (-110) First Half Points

Let's be real for a second, nobody is rushing to bet this game "under" the number. And because of that, the lines are juiced incredibly high for the team totals (for a Super Bowl). However, we just don't see a way where both of these teams don't go up and down the field at will and put up plenty of points. The Chiefs have hit the "over" in both playoff games. And with the plethora of weapons they have available and with an extra week of scheming and game-planning, the Chiefs will be ready. Much has been made of the Niners defense. However, in reality, it hasn't faced a team yet this postseason that compares offensively to the Chiefs. Both the Vikings and Packers are severally flawed offensively, which is something the Chiefs are not. They have a running game, they have speed and skill at the wide receiver position, and, most importantly, they have a mobile quarterback that can make all of the throws. This game is going to be good, and there's no way I'm touching an "under" in this one unless you're offering me a total of a million at plus-money.

First Touchdown Scorer(s)

George Kittle +1000, Sammy Watkins +1600, Mecole Herdman +2000,

This is a little unorthodox, but I feel like both teams are going to be passing the ball all over the field in this game. That's why I'm spreading my bankroll around and covering three pass catchers that offer up tremendous value to be the first guy to find the end zone. If you throw 50 bucks on each of these guys, you'll be in for $150, but the lowest payout you'll receive is 550 if Kittle scores the first touchdown, leaving you with a profit of +$400.

You have to think that the Niners will want to run the ball and the Chiefs will be ready for it. We expect Kyle Shanahan to be aggressive with his play-calling and try to push the ball down the field early and often. We like Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel as receivers, but Kittle is the go-to guy and we just aren't sure any of the Chiefs LBs can cover him.

As for the pair of KC guys, you have to believe that Sherman will be on Hill for the majority of the game, while Kelce will see double coverage in the middle of the field. That leaves these two speedsters in single coverage on the outside or in the slot, which is where the Chiefs do most of their damage. It's almost like Hill and Kelce will be used as a decoy to start and get SF to alter their game plan.

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