Free Super Bowl Props Predictions 2021
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs; Raymond James Stadium, 6:30 p.m. EST. Feb 7, 2021.
The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season. Meanwhile, Tom Brady elected to go to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and instantly made them a Super Bowl threat, taking his team through three road games in the NFC to now be playing in the Super Bowl.
Currently, the Chiefs are 3-point favorites and the total is 56.5 on this game.
On the season, both offenses were very consistent. The Chiefs scored 29.6 points per game, while averaging 425.3 yards per game with 312.8 yards passing and 112.4 yards rushing. Patrick Mahomes, quarterback of the Chiefs, threw 38 touchdowns and six interceptions while throwing for 4,740 yards.
He’s got some serious targets on offense, including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who have become his most comfortable targets, especially in the postseason.
The Chiefs don’t have the best offensive line and could easily get burned by the Buccaneers pass rush. That’s the goal for the Bucs. It’s to get pressure on Mahomes. That offensive line has broken down in the passing game plenty of times, so there’s reason to believe the Buccaneers can get the job done here on defense. They’ve forced many turnovers in the postseason thus far.
On defense, the Chiefs haven’t done well against the run and struggle with tackling. This team doesn’t have a great pass rush, and the coverage has been spotty since the first half of the season. The Chiefs defense, statistically, just hasn’t been great in the second half of the season.
The Buccaneers offense also has plenty of weapons, including Antonio Brown coming back. The pass protection hasn’t been great for the Bucs. And when Brady is under pressure, things go south. However, I’m not so sure the Chiefs are going to be able to get much pressure in this game. Both teams have solid running games beyond the reality that the Bucs have the better rushing defense.
To make matters worse for the Chiefs, the Bucs have the better pass rush and coverage. In the postseason, the Bucs have continually made top tier quarterbacks look bad, including Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
Here’s some free props and predictions for the big game.
1st Half Lines - Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)
Both teams have shown the ability to score early and often throughout the season. But there’s really only one quality defense playing in this game. That’s Tampa Bay. In this spot, I’d expect the Bucs to get off to a hot start in the first half and hold the Chiefs on more possessions. Even if there’s a tie, the Bucs would win the first half. Just like last year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers got ahead early and the Chiefs finished them late. That could be how this game plays out. So, if you like the Bucs, look at them in the first half and you won’t have to sweat the second half.
First Touchdown Scorer(s)
Mike Evans +1000, Chris Godwin +1000, Cameron Brate +2500,
I like the Bucs to score the first touchdown in this game. And with such a poor secondary, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a receiver with Brady throwing the first touchdown. The best match-up in this game for the Bucs is Chris Godwin against L’Jarius Sneed in the slot. Sneed has allowed 62 percent of catches thrown his way and .97 yards after catch per catch.
But if it’s a red zone touchdown, Brady will target Mike Evans against Bashaud Breeland. Evans has a six-inch height advantage and should be more than capable of getting a big time catch.
If you want a longshot, you can look at either Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate. A little play action fake in the endzone for Brate seems realistic.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown -163
Travis Kelce has caught 21 passes in two playoff games this season with 25 targets in those two games. Kelce has caught at least eight passes in nine of 10 games this season and has a touchdown in seven of his last eight games.
Kelce has become the go-to guy on offense and has been security to Patrick Mahomes. They’ve got red-zone plays where they can dump the ball off to Kelce or do other exciting plays. Kelce always finds his way into the endzone, and I don’t see why this game would be any different under the bright lights in Tampa.
Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions -175
I know the juice is heavy, but I expect the Buccaneers to get out to an early lead. With that, the Chiefs are going to quickly start passing, and there’s one guy that no cornerback can stick with and that’s Tyreek Hill.
Hill has 17 receptions in the two playoff games with 21 targets. All we’ll need is seven catches from Hill, who caught 13 of 15 receptions in the last game against the Bucs during the regular season. Even if you find a prop for 7.5 catches, I’d take it.
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