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Horses that Can Win the Kentucky Derby in 2025

by Spencer Toth - 4/29/2025

Horses that can win the Kentucky Derby Luxor Cafe

The Kentucky Derby is the most popular horse race of the year, and the 2025 edition of this historic race promises to be one of the most interesting races of all time. The 20-horse Kentucky Derby field has been set, the horses are preparing for the race, and the stakes couldn’t be higher with millions of dollars on the line. Not only will the horses and jockeys be racing for glory, but a record $210.7 million dollars was wagered on the 2024 Kentucky Derby. That number is expected to be exceeded this year, but only a handful of horses have a legitimate chance at winning the 2025 Kentucky Derby. The field is wide open compared to most years, too, allowing us to chase massive profits on some sizable underdogs. Here are the horses that can win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. 

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Journalism: Post Position 8, 3-1

Journalism is coming in as the outright favorite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and a favorable post position has seen him jump out even further in front. The 8th post position is right in the sweet spot of the lengthy 20-horse start, but that is not the only reason Journalism can win the Kentucky Derby. He has won four races in a row, including a pair of 2025 victories highlighted by his Santa Anita Derby victory. It is no surprise that Journalism has started his racing career off strong, as he comes from horse racing royalty as his father is the legendary Curlin. 

Trainer Michael McCarthy is still looking for his first major race victory, but he has been able to sweep the floor with his competition in smaller races over the years. McCarthy has done a great job at taming the raw talent Journalism brings to the table, as he could be one of the most fluid horses in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Italian jockey Umberto Rispoli has competed in the Kentucky Derby twice in his career, finishing 14th and 9th. While his lack of winning experience could raise some eyebrows, he was stuck riding on far inferior horses compared to Journalism in those races. Rispoli is a responsible, promising jockey who can handle the speed of Journalism when it matters most. 

Journalism’s long strides are effortless, and it is no surprise to see him coming into the race as the outright favorite. This will be the longest race of his career, but the early speed combined with a strong gas tank ensures he is unlikely to fade down the stretch. At 3-1 odds, there isn’t a ton of money to be made here, but Journalism is the strongest horse at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He isn’t the best pick in terms of value, but there is no denying he is worthy of the favorite role. 

Pick: Journalism 3-1

Sovereignty: Post Position 18, 5-1

Sovereignty drew a poor post position at 18, but that doesn’t mean he can’t go on to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Country Horse won from post position 18 in 2019, and he is alongside a pair of slower horses at post positions 19 and 20. 

On the track, Sovereignty seemingly gets better every time he races. He already won at Churchill Downs last fall, posting an impressive 106 speed rating. He doesn’t have the early speed needed to pull away from the chasing pack, but his stamina is his best attribute on the track. For a 1 1/4 mile race like the Kentucky Derby, maintaining control and composure throughout the race will be crucial for the inevitable victor. Sovereignty has pulled out as the second favorite heading into the Kentucky Derby as his strong stamina and Churchill Downs experience are gathering plenty of tickets leading up to Saturday.
Sovereignty is trained by the youngest Hall of Famer of all time, Bill Mott. Mott was inducted in 1998 and has no shortage of Kentucky Derby experience. He trained the aforementioned Country Horse in 2019, who also drew post position 18, so Mott may also be feeling extra lucky heading into the 2025 edition of this race with Sovereignty (although it must be noted that in 2019 Country Horse finished second, but was awarded the win after Maximum Security was disqualified). Mott has more than 5,000 career wins and has been training horses for more than 40 years and counting. He feels as though he has something truly special with Sovereignty, and this will be one of his best chances to add to his extensive resume. 

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is a wide open race, and Sovereignty has the genetic makeup to claim victory on Saturday evening. His stamina, experience, and strong training regimen have Sovereignty rightfully among the favorites. The 5-1 odds offer a nice return on Sovereignty, and this is also a horse you will want to bet on To Place and To Show at the Kentucky Derby, as his stamina will allow him to almost certainly finish on the podium. 

Pick: Sovereignty 5-1

Sandman: Post Position 17, 6-1

While Sandman could technically win the 2025 Kentucky Derby, he deserves to have double digit odds attached to his name. Sandman is excellent at adjusting to different track conditions, but that will not be necessary as the weather forecast is ideal for Saturday night. If this were a sloppy race, Sandman would certainly be worth a wager, but he lacks the straight-line speed needed to emerge from a crowded pack during the Run for the Roses. His win at the Arkansas Derby has seen him shoot up the morning odds list, but that was in messy conditions, and Sandman has fallen short when the weather is ideal. If rain is on the forecast for Saturday, Sandman is a horse you will not want to ignore. However, there is no reason to bet on him now since the Kentucky Derby uses a pari-mutuel odds system. Trainer Steve Asmussen appears to be nearing retirement, and it is hard to envision a Kentucky Derby victory after he trained his way to just a single major victory in 2024. The price isn’t long enough to take a stab at Sandman, given the weather conditions and more appealing options down the list. 

Pick: Pass

Luxor Cafe: Post Position 7, 15-1

Luxor Cafe is a horse drawing a lot of media attention heading into the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and he deserves every bit of it. The Kentucky Derby primarily features American horses, but Luxor Cafe is coming in from Japan for the event. He is trained by Yoshito Yahagi and is bringing an international flair with him to the Kentucky Derby. Luxor Cafe is no ordinary horse either, as his father was the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. American Pharoah was one of the fastest horses the horse racing world has ever seen, and Luxor Cafe has the potential to match his father's accolades. 

Luxor Cafe started his career slowly, but he is improving in so many categories every time his hooves touch racing dirt. His stamina is gradually catching up to his straight line speed, and his willingness to listen to his jockey in the heat of the moment is what you are looking for from an underdog like this. Jockey Joao Moreira is an experienced jockey with victories all over the world and is making his Kentucky Derby debut this year. A Luxor Cafe victory would help grow the Kentucky Derby to international status, and he is certainly worth a sprinkle at 15-1 odds. 

Pick: Luxor Cafe 15-1

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