2022 Kentucky Derby Predictions with Free Trifecta Bet

by Raphael Esparza - 5/6/2022

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Fingers will be crossed that we will have good weather for Saturday’s running of the 148th Kentucky Derby, “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports”. Last year at the Kentucky Derby we saw Medina Spirit win the race as a 12-1 betting choice, but then the controversy came out regarding that win. Medina Spirit trainer Bob Baffert was banned from the Triple Crown races for the next two years following the verification of a positive drug test from the Derby.

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby edition features 20 entrants, with 2 alternates, and this 1 1/4 mile race is going to be very entertaining and very wide-open. If you didn’t notice, there are 14 horses that are 20-1 or higher, and if one of them hits the board we could see some nice prices on the tote board. But don’t forget Kentucky will be getting some bad weather Thursday night and all-day Friday, so the track on Saturday could be an issue. I believe a small handful of horses could hit the board. And let’s face it, who doesn’t want to see another possible chance to see a Triple Crown winner? Here are the highlights of the field and some Kentucky Derby predictions (Odds are the morning line track odds).

1. Mo Donegal (10-1)

Trainer: Todd A Pletcher – Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr

The speed that Mo Donegal displayed at the Wood Memorial was impressive, and no way he closes at 10-1 when the gate is lifted. I hate Mo Donegal getting the Post 1 position. However, with the speed he showed in his last race, it doesn’t matter where he is down the stretch. He will be a contender to hit the board on Saturday.

2. Happy Jack (30-1)

Trainer: Doug F O’Neil – Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

There is a good reason why Happy Jack opened at 30-1. Happy Jack doesn’t have the speed to compete in this race, and he will be a toss out for me when handicapping this race.

3. Epicenter (7-2)

Trainer: Steven M Asmussen – Jockey: Joel Rosario

At the Louisiana Derby, Epicenter cashed, and he is worthy of being one of the favorites here. Epicenter has been rolling, winning 4 of his last 5 races, and that one loss was a by a head. Here is another horse where I do not love the post position. However, if he sits well in the middle of the pack, he will be a contender down to the wire.

4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1)

Trainer: Bhupat Seemar – Jockey: Mickael Barzalona

Really?!?! 30-1?!?! Was the 5-button stuck when the opening line was produced, because I thought 50-1 should have been posted. Summer is Tomorrow comes from UAE, and we all know that UAE horses have not run well in the Kentucky Derby. Complete toss out for me.

5. Smile Happy (20-1)

Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek – Jockey: Corey J Lanerie

I was shocked that Smile Happy finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes, but Saturday the talent is tougher than what he faced at Keeneland. He will probably get stuck of the middle of the pack early, and I don’t see closing speed putting him close to hitting the board.

6. Messier (8-1)

Trainer: Tim Yakteen – Jockey: John R Velazquez

Can we mention Bob Baffert in this race or is it bad luck? Messier is a former Baffert horse that has tons of closing speed, and he will be a fan favorite when it comes to betting. In the Santa Anita Derby, Messier lost to Taiba, and if Messier wants to hit the board he will need to run almost a perfect race. I would add him to your exactas, trifectas and superfecta wagers, because this horse has talent.

7. Crown Pride (20-1)

Trainer: Koichi Shintani – Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Another UAE horse here, and this Japanese bred horse is coming off a win at the UAE Derby. Crown Pride has closing speed. And if he sits well, he could grab second or third, so here is a horse I would add to my exotics.

8. Charge It (20-1)

Trainer: Todd A Pletcher – Jockey: Luis Saez

Want a good live long shot for Saturday? This horse could be a big shocker, and if we see the closing speed we saw at the Florida Derby, this horse could be cashing on Saturday. This horse shown no fear in Florida and won’t show fear on Saturday.

9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1)

Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek – Jockey: Brian J Hernandez Jr

In the Jeff Ruby Stakes, Tiz the Bomb won and I was impressed. Let’s also throw in the big opening line attached to Tiz the Bomb, and I don’t see him closing at 30-1. Still a toss out for me, but it wouldn’t shock me if this horse is contending close.

10. Zandon (3-1)

Trainer: Chad C Brown – Jockey: Flavien Prat

This horse was so impressive in the Blue Grass Stakes, and getting the Post 10 should make trainer Chad Brown thrilled. Love the jockey pick up with Flavien Prat for the Blue Grass, and Pratt will be on him on Saturday, so I will highly recommend putting him in on all Derby wagers.

11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)

Trainer: Todd A Pletcher – Jockey: Joe Bravo

Complete toss out for me here as the prep work for Pioneer of Medina has shown me nothing.

12. Taiba (12-1)

Trainer: Tim Yakteen – Jockey: Mike E Smith
A big fan of Taiba, and I was impressed with the Santa Anita Derby win over Messier. Taiba is now a perfect 2-0, and we can’t hide that this horse was previously trained by Bob Baffert. Throw in jockey Mike Smith riding, and the speed that this horse has, and I will defiantly have some coin on this California horse.

13. Simplification (20-1)

Trainer: Antonio Sano – Jockey: Jose L Ortiz

Ran just OK in the Florida Derby, but the talent is good enough for Simplification to steal a top-3 spot. I know Simplification has hit the board 6 out 7 starts, but I don’t see this horse running well on Saturday.

14. Barber Road (30-1)

Trainer: John Alexander Ortiz – Jockey: Reylu Guiterrez

This horse has great closing speed and finished second place in the Arkansas Derby, but here is another horse we are throwing out.

15. White Abarrio (20-1)

Trainer: Saffie A Joseph, Jr – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

I can guarantee my wife will be all over this horse because it’s a gray/white bred, and she probably doesn’t know that White Abarrio won the Florida Derby. The only thing that scares me about White Abarrio is that this will be his second race outside of Gulfstream Park. Tough loss at Churchill Downs but hit the board coming in third, and it wouldn’t shock me if this horse hits third or fourth.

16. Cyberknife (20-1)

Trainer: Brad H Cox – Jockey: Florent Geroux

This opening line is a head-scratcher. The Arkansas Derby champ getting no love, and I know his workouts have been unimpressive. However, he still won at Oaklawn Park. It’s going to be very interesting to see what his betting line will be Saturday afternoon.

17. Classic Causeway (30-1)

Trainer: Brian A Lynch – Jockey: Julien R Leparoux

Classic Causeway is still running in the Florida Derby, and that is why he is 30-1 on the opening line. It wouldn’t shock me to Classic Causeway take the lead early and fade away throughout the race. Complete toss out.

18. Tawny Port (30-1)

Trainer: Brad H Cox – Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr

No shot, and drawing the 18 Post didn’t help. Another complete toss out.

19. Zozos (20-1)

Trainer: Brad H Cox – Jockey: Manuel Franco
The distance will not be kind to Zozos, and when the race starts Zozos will close probably around 30-1 or higher.

20. Ethereal Road (30-1)

Trainer: D Wayne Lukas – Jockey: Luis Contreras
Breaking from Post 20 will be the reason why this horse will be in the back from start to finish, which sucks because this horse has great speed. Post position is the main reason why this horse won’t hit the board. But keep an eye out for him in future races.

2022 Kentucky Derby Free Pick

$2.00 Trifecta Box = $120
(Not in order)
(1) – Mo Donegal
(3) – Epicenter
(6) – Messier
(10) – Zandon
(12) – Taiba

Raphael Esparza is one of the best handicappers in all sports. This weekend Esparza will have plays from Horse Racing, NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, MLB, WNBA, Soccer, Boxing and UFC. Saturday Esparza will have a full card at Churchill Downs and Esparza will be releasing a 7-Unit Head-to-Head Kentucky Derby matchup. Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet Kentucky Derby premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

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