2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 4/29/2025

Kentucky Derby predictions Burnham Square

The Kentucky Derby is the most prestigious horse race on the calendar, and the 2025 edition of the Run for the Roses is poised to be one of the best ones yet. It will be hard to top the three-way photo finish that gave Mystik Dan the victory last year, but the wide-open 20-horse field makes this the perfect race for sports bettors around the world.

Only three horses are coming in with single-digit odds to win the Kentucky Derby, emphasizing how even this year’s field truly is. While anyone could win the race, a total of four horses appear to be clearly mispriced heading into Saturday night. For the 2025 Kentucky Derby, here are the four horses you should be betting on and the recommended way to split a $100 wager on the event.

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Journalism (3-1)

We are kicking things off with the outright favorite at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Journalism is the most well-rounded horse at the event, and there is still plenty of money to be made at 3-1 odds. He has a favorable post position with slot number 8, and he is entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby with no shortage of momentum, with four straight victories. This includes a win in the Santa Anita Derby last month, and there is no denying that Journalism is the rightful favorite heading into the event. His early speed will allow him to separate himself from the chasing pack, and he will secure victory if his stamina holds up, which it has of late.

While we can go on and on about why Journalism is the favorite heading into the race, the more important distinction is that he still holds value at 3-1 this weekend. This is one of the longest outright favorites in recent memory, as there is usually a contender that gathers an overwhelming majority of the bets. The 3-1 odds still offer a solid payout on Journalism to win, but there is little point in wagering on the Michael McCarthy-trained horse to place or show. The style of Journalism’s racing will allow him to either storm out front and hold on for the win, or fade down the stretch due to poor stamina. Take Journalism to win, but leave it at that for the outright favorite.

Percent to win: 45%

Sovereignty (5-1)

Sovereignty is coming in as the second most likely horse to win the Kentucky Derby based on the morning line odds, and it is hard to argue with his spot in the rankings. He is one of the fastest horses with his straight-line speed once he gets going, and the only concern is his ability to navigate the opening stretch of the race. The crowded field may cause Sovereignty to quickly fall behind, but as long as he is within striking distance of the front of the pack, he will be able to make up that ground.

Trainer Bill Mott has an excellent record at the Kentucky Derby and will be brimming with confidence heading into the race this year. This is one of the most well-rounded horses he has trained, and Sovereignty certainly has what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. His combination of speed, stamina, and strong lineage makes him an excellent pick at odds like these. Journalism is a textbook ‘boom or bust’ horse with his lack of stamina, and Sovereignty will be hoping to be in pole position to take over if Journalism falls off down the stretch.

Percent to win: 25%

Burnham Square (12-1)

Burnham will not go down as a racing legend due to his longevity, but his stamina makes him an intriguing horse to watch at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He has won two of his three races this year, and that includes one of the most thrilling victories of all time at the Blue Grass. Burnham Square got off to a rocky start before storming from dead last up to first place to claim the victory. His other two victories in the last twelve months have also come courtesy of late dashes, and the Kentucky Derby is even longer than the Blue Grass, which could give Burnham Square the time he needs to make another late dash onto the podium.

Burnham Square is trained by the inexperienced Ian Wilkes, but it is clear Wilkes has been preparing his horse for this exact race. The lengthy 1 1/4 mile track will allow Burnham Square to show off his stamina, and he is bursting with value at 12-1 odds. This is a horse that will never give up, regardless of where he is in the pack, and that is the kind of spirit you are looking for with a moderate underdog like Burnham Square.

On his back will be Brian Hernandez Jr, who already has a Kentucky Derby victory to his name. He won the Run for the Roses with Mystik Dan last year, and will be looking to join an exclusive company as a jockey to win back-to-back Kentucky Derbies. Burnham Square has come from behind to win so many times before in his career, and is worthy of a few dollars at 12-1 odds.

Percent to win: 20%

Tiztastic (20-1)

The longshot we will be tailing this year at the Kentucky Derby is Tiztastic. Tiztastic ticks many of the boxes you are looking for when taking a dart throw like this. He won his most recent race thanks to a stunning closing move after he fell behind by seven lengths, and has shown a willingness to dig deep in the closing stretch of any race. He lost to both Sandman and Sovereignty on multiple occasions last year, but he was never too far behind and still outran many of the other competitors at this year’s derby.

Jockey Joel Rosario has 13 Kentucky Derbies under his belt, including a win with Orb in 2013. He has the patience needed to time a late dash for Tiztastic without gassing out his steed in the early stages. Tiztastic is 20-1 for a reason, but the upside offered on a horse coming off a recent is undeniable. He may not be able to get the outright win, but including Tiztastic in your Trifectas is not a bad idea.

Percent to win: 10%

How to spread a $100 wager:

First things first, don’t get tempted into taking Journalism in any sort of Trifecta bets or taking him to Place or Show. The upside isn’t there at his short 3-1 price, and I firmly believe Journalism will either win the Kentucky Derby or fall short of the podium.

There is also solid value in Sovereignty to win this race if Journalism can’t hold onto his likely lead, and we will be taking him to both win and place in this race. It is hard to imagine him finishing outside the top two, and this will guarantee us some money back if the other longshots don’t cash.

Burnham Square has the upside we are looking for at 12-1, but we will play it safe and hope he finishes on the podium and allows one of our other two horses to win. We will have left money on the table if he wins, but we will still receive a nice payout given his long odds.

For some specific bets, we will be taking Sovereignty, Burnham Square, and Tiztastic in our Box Trifecta. If Journalism has the late falloff some expect, this trio of horses could claim their place on the podium. We don’t have to stake much for a big return with this one, as any of the 6 bets of $4 will be well into three, or even four figures. We will also be throwing a dart on a trifecta with Journalism holding on for the win, and will be hoping Burnham Square can beat out Sandman and Rodriguez for the final podium position.

Journalism to Win: $31

Sovereignty to Win: $10

Sovereignty to Place: $10

Burnham Square to Place: $5

Burnham Square to Show: $10

Box Trifecta: (Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Tiztastic): $24 (6x $4 Combinations)

Straight Trifecta: Journalism, Sovereignty, Burnham Square $10

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