2023-24 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions
There are just 6 weeks to go in the regular season, and now is the perfect time to lock in your NBA title bet. The top 4 contenders have separated themselves from the chasing pack. However, with 12 teams coming in with +2800 odds or shorter, the NBA Championship race is still wide open. Placing a future at this stage of the season can still ensure you’re getting the best price possible, without having to sit on your ticket for an entire season. Let’s take a look at the favorites and determine if they are worthy of a bet with your hard-earned cash.
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Boston Celtics +250
The Celtics are the clearcut favorites to lift their first championship since 2008 and are sitting perched atop the Eastern Conference with an 8-win gap over the Milwaukee Bucks. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown remain the leaders in Boston, but this year's Celtics team feels much more complete than previous seasons. They addressed their defensive issues by bringing in perennial DPOY candidate Jrue Holiday in the offseason, and he instantly elevated the historic Celtics franchise. Inside, Kristaps Porzingis has settled in nicely to his new role, and the injury plagued big man has managed to stay healthy for most of the season. Derrick White, Al Horford, and Payton Pritchard round out the rotation. And while the Celtics have the depth, a potentially deep playoff run will rest on the shoulders of their stars.
Jayson Tatum’s PPG has dipped from 30.1 last season to 27.0 PPG this season, but his offensive efficiency has elevated. Tatum was previously forced to carry a large portion of the offensive workload. And while he’s still the cornerstone of the franchise, he’s no longer being forced into taking bad shots late in the clock. His shooting splits are the best they’ve been in years, and he’s on pace to set a career high in assists, with 4.9 per game. The 25-year-old is entering his prime, and his team has never been better poised to go on a deep run. In a similar fashion to Tatum, Brown has seen his PPG dip since last season, but his shooting splits and assists tick upwards. It’s abundantly clear that the Celtics retooled roster has unlocked a new level of play from their stars. And with a solid defensive presence going the other way, the sky's the limit for Boston.
I certainly agree that Boston deserves to be the favorites, but can we justify this short price tag? The short answer is… absolutely. Not only does Boston have the most complete roster in the league, but they have an extremely easy path to the Finals. First of all, the number seed is all but locked up. And with Boston’s 28-3 home record, they should have no problems holding home court. Additionally, the Eastern Conference has never been weaker, and Boston has never been stronger. The Bucks are the closest challengers, but a lack of defense and questionable coaching could be their downfall. The Knicks and 76ers are both dealing with serious injuries to their stars. And while the Cavaliers are surging, the lack of playoff experience in their squad makes it difficult to see them upsetting Boston. Even with the short price tag, now is a great time to buy on the Celtics, as this price could certainly go shorter before the postseason gets underway.
Denver Nuggets: +450
The defending champions are the favorites to win the crowded Western Conference. And as long as they stay healthy, there is no doubt they have what it takes. Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to win his 3rd MVP award, and the magical big man’s impact on the court cannot be overstated. Denver owns a top 10 offense, and Jokic leads the team in PPG, Assists, Rebounds, and Field Goal Percentage, while shooting a respectable 82% from the charity stripe. Jokic proved last season that he doesn’t need much help to win an NBA Championship, and it would surprise absolutely nobody if the Nuggets went on to repeat. In the backcourt, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have formed a devastating trio from behind the arc, and none of them need a second invitation to jack it up from deep. The fact that Denver has surrounded Jokic with competent shooters ensures defenses get punished if they elect to double team the Serbian.
Denver currently sits in 3rd place out West but is just 1 game back of the top spot. There will still be plenty of shuffling in the standings down the stretch, as just 8 games separate 1st and 8th, the same gap as 1st and 2nd in the East. There are no guarantees that Denver will have home court advantage for any duration of time in the postseason. And at this price tag, it’s hard to justify a wager. There is no doubting Denver’s credentials, as they have the skill, experience, and coaching needed to make a deep run, but I just don’t see them going back-to-back. The Nuggets have been fortunate enough to avoid any significant injuries to their starting unit, yet they’ve still been unable to pull away from the chasing pack. Furthermore, the entire league will have watched their Finals run last season, and no doubt opposing coaching staffs have been thinking up gameplans specifically designed for the Nuggets all season long. As long as Nikola Jokic remains on the court, the Nuggets will always have a chance to succeed, but this price is simply too short. The West is filled with contenders. And if anyone gets hot down the stretch, this price could certainly increase. Now is not the time to take a shot with Denver. And until they dip into the +700 range, it’ll be hard to ever pull the trigger.
LA Clippers +500
The Clippers have amassed an unfathomable amount of talent, and now it’s all about putting it all together. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have now entered Year 5 of their partnership in LA. And with nothing significant coming in the first 4 years, management decided to take it a step further. James Harden and Russell Westbrook have a combined 19 All-Star appearances between them, bringing the Clippers to a total of 34 All-Star appearances on their roster. It’s not surprising to see the Clippers near the top of the list considering the quartet of superstars on their roster, but the health of their players remains a concern. Leonard has dealt with injuries throughout his career, and George hasn’t fared much better. The duo has been previously unable to consistently suit up together. And now that both have stayed relatively healthy this year, the Clippers are already reaping the rewards. They are in the top 5 in most offensive categories, and their ability to heat up from behind the arc is reminiscent of a certain Golden State Warriors team. Two-time DPOY Leonard does a fantastic job of spearheading their defensive unit, and Ivica Zubac is reliable in clogging up the lane. While there are still parts of the defense that need to be improved, primarily their defensive rebounding, the Clippers superior offense ensures that as long as they play average defense, they will emerge victorious more often than not.
The Clippers have the same issue as the Nuggets, and that’s the fact they are in a very crowded Western Conference. The Timberwolves, Thunder, Nuggets, Mavericks, Suns, Warriors, and Lakers are all coming in with +3000 odds or better, ensuring there will be no easy matchups for the Clippers in the postseason. The crowded nature ensures their seeding will be up in the air until the final week of the season, and it’s hard to rationalize a +600 bet when there are plenty of other contenders with better prices. However, even after saying all that, something feels a little bit different about this year's Clippers. The franchise has been correctly labeled as perennial chokers in recent years. However, the fact they’ve been able to manage the big egos in the dressing room so far this season has me confident they’ll be able to finally translate their on-paper advantages into playoff wins. This price has been steadily falling all year, and I expect that trend to continue down the stretch, with the Clippers eventually passing the Nuggets for West favorites. At +500, the Clippers hold plenty of value to lift the franchise's inaugural championship.
Milwaukee Bucks +650
The Bucks brought Giannis Antetokounmpo a co-star, but everything hasn’t exactly gone to plan. The Jrue Holiday-sized hole on their defense has been causing them issues all season long. That’s because while Damian Lillard can ball out offensively, he’s a below average defensive guard. Lillard left Portland after more than a decade with the team that drafted him, in hopes of collecting his first career ring before he retires. Last season, the Bucks had the 4th ranked defense in the league and were the championship favorites before imploding in the first round against the 8th seed Miami Heat. Head coach Mike Budenholzer was shown the door, allowing Adrian Griffin to take the reins. Griffin’s reign didn’t last long, as he was fired midseason despite posting a 30-13 record through the first half of the year. The Bucks didn’t want a repeat of last year's playoff disappointment, so they hired Doc Rivers. While Rivers is an illustrious NBA coach, he’s also developed a poor reputation in the postseason. Since 2000, 7 teams have blown a 3-1 lead in the postseason, and 3 of them were coached by Rivers.
In the offseason, Milwaukee transformed from a defensive powerhouse, to an offensive threat. They now sport a bottom half defensive rating just one season after being ranked 4th, and instead lean on their offense to pick up wins. Antetokounmpo has been his usual dominant self, and the oldest team in the league has plenty of experience to navigate tight games.
While there may be some positives about the Bucks, mainly that they have little to no opposition outside of the Celtics in the East, I just don’t see them getting anywhere near the Finals. Their inability to play defense, combined with questionable coaching and an aging lineup, should not have them up here with the seasoned contenders. The East may be wide open. However, even at the same odds, I would take the Cavaliers (+2800) or Knicks (+2000) over the Bucks. Milwaukee is not built like a team destined to challenge for a title, and instead reminds me of the 2020-2022 Clippers. They have plenty of talent, but no defense, a lack of chemistry and poor coaching will prevent them from making a deep run.
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