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2025-26 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 6/23/2025

NBA Championship odds and predictions Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

The 2024-25 NBA season is in the rearview mirror, and it is never too early to look ahead at the championship odds for the 2025-26 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder won their first NBA championship in franchise history and are coming in as the outright favorite to repeat as champions. However, several contenders are nipping at their heels, and this promises to be another very competitive season. Locking in these picks before the league hits free agency can allow you to secure upside by predicting where some of the big names may sign. While the prospect of tying up your bankroll for an entire calendar year has its drawbacks, the extra value you can secure certainly makes it worthwhile. While dominant, the Thunder don’t offer enough upside for a wager with this timeframe. Instead, here are the six teams you must lock in before the season gets underway. 

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New York Knicks: +900

The Knicks are entering the offseason as outright favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and it is hard to argue with their status at the top of the East. The Knicks have the most well-rounded starting five in the NBA, and they will use the offseason to retool their bench. Recently fired Tom Thibodeau was unable to effectively utilize his reserves in New York, and the Knicks simply ran out of steam deep in the playoffs. A new coach will change the identity of this Knicks team. 

Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns comprise an incredible offensive duo, and the defense of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart makes their starters incredibly dangerous. One of their starters, possibly Towns or Hart, could be departing New York, but the Knicks will only accept a move that improves their current roster. The Knicks have little draft capital in the short term, and they are certainly in a ‘win now’ mindset. Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely out of reach, but the Knicks still have options in the offseason. These kinds of odds offer plenty of value, and if the other Eastern Conference contenders don’t make a splash, they could shorten to the +700 range before the season tips off. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: +1400

The Timberwolves were outclassed in the Western Conference Finals this season, but they still have a bright future. Anthony Edwards is still getting better at just 23 years old, and the Timberwolves will build around their star guard in the offseason. The Kevin Durant dream is dead, but there are serious rumors surrounding Darius Garland. A backcourt duo of Garland and Edwards would catapult the Timberwolves into second behind the Thunder in the Western Conference. 

Minnesota will have to deal with the looming statuses of Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but if two of the three stay, they will still be in good shape. There are no glaring holes on the Timberwolves roster, as they are a competent team on both ends of the court. A crowded Western Conference has inflated the odds for a Timberwolves championship, and there is no shortage of upside at +1200  for a team this talented. 

Boston Celtics: +1600

The Boston Celtics were +200 favorites to win the championship this season after lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy in 2024. An injury to Jayson Tatum derailed their championship hopes, but this is a team we have no choice but to take a shot with at +1600. Tatum is expected to return for the postseason, and the Celtics will have no problem qualifying for the playoffs without their superstar. Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and one of Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis are all truly elite talents. The Celtics are unlikely to hold onto both Holiday and Porzingis due to salary restraints, but if they can keep one of them, this is still a dangerous team. (NOTE: Holiday was traded tonight to the Trail Blazers in breaking news). They are capable of making a deep playoff run without Tatum, and his late-season return will only see these odds get slashed further. 

There is certainly a risk in taking the Celtics at +1600 now, but it is one we have no choice but to take. Tatum could see a complication in his recovery and miss the entire season, and the Celtics could choose to blow it up and start from scratch. Outside of White, most of their team is on the wrong side of 30, and Boston could use Tatum’s injury as an excuse to hit the reset button. Their odds will plummet if that is the case, but they will also rise into the +1000 range if their roster remains intact. If you can get ahead of any trade news, this could be an even better pick to make, but as of now, the 2024 champions are worth a sprinkle at odds like these. 

Denver Nuggets: +1600

The Nuggets are not included in a multitude of offseason rumors, but that is because they don’t have to be. Teams like the Rockets (+1400), Lakers (+1500), and Spurs (+2200) all have similar odds to the Nuggets despite glaring holes in their rosters. All three aforementioned teams are expected to make major upgrades, but the Nuggets already have a stacked roster that doesn’t require playing the offseason lottery. 

Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league, and Denver showed what they can do with a healthy roster. They took the Thunder to seven games in the second round, and did all this after firing their coach with less than a week left in the season. The Nuggets will mentally reset for this season, and there is truly no ceiling for Jokic and company this year. Whether or not the Nuggets elect to restructure their roster around Jokic, there is no reason a proven champion, with the best player in the league, should have longer odds than the Rockets. Denver screams value, and is the top pick that must be locked in before they make a splash in the offseason. 

Philadelphia 76ers: +4000

The 76ers had one of the worst seasons of all time last year, which has inflated their odds far too high given the talent on their team. Joel Embiid will have had time to fully heal up, and the emergence of Tyrese Maxey as a true point guard has raised the ceiling for this team. Paul George is still not playing up to his potential, but the fact that the 76ers catapulted up to 3rd overall in the draft has brought optimism back to the Philly fan base. 

There is no chance a healthy 76ers roster should have odds remotely close to these, and I expect them to be at full strength heading into the season. Don’t forget, Embiid, George, and Maxey combined for just 112 games last year and will be motivated to make a deep playoff run in a wide-open Eastern Conference. A crafty offseason signing combined with a solid 3rd overall pick will vault the 76ers right into contention. Embiid is a dominant player when healthy, and Philadelphia could suddenly have the roster it needs to make a run all the way to the championship. 

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