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2024-25 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2025

NBA Championship odds and predictions Luka Doncic LA Lakers

The NBA playoffs are days from getting underway and this is the perfect time to lock in your championship picks. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics have emerged as the clear title favorites, but there are a handful of teams that will feel confident in their abilities to pull off an upset. Due to the short odds for the Celtics and Thunder, only three other teams are coming in with odds shorter than +2000. The five favorites eat up an incredible 91% of the implied win probabilities, so there is a very high chance the 2025 NBA champions will be one of these five teams. However, a few of the favorites have had their title odds inflated, so let’s take a look at which favorites are worthy of a wager at this stage of the season. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder: +170

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a very bright future in front of them, but this will not be the year they win the franchise’s first NBA championship. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely win the MVP award this season as he leads the NBA in PPG. His ability to generate offense for the Thunder has led them to the best record in the NBA this season. The young talent doesn’t end there, as all their starters are 26 years old or younger. 22-year-old Chet Holmgren has been excellent for the Thunder, while offseason addition Isiah Hartenstein has given the Thunder a two-big lineup that is hard to contain. While there is no denying how good the Thunder have been this season, the NBA playoffs are an entirely different ballgame. 

The Thunder are in an incredibly tight Western Conference and will have a difficult path to the NBA Finals. Their first-round opponent has yet to be decided, but even the Grizzlies or Kings could give Oklahoma City problems. They will likely face off against the Warriors, Timberwolves, or Clippers in the second round, all three of which are full of playoff veterans. The Thunder did a great job at navigating the regular season, but we haven’t seen their young players deliver in the clutch to warrant a line like this. You will get a better return by taking the Thunder to win each series individually, as the +170 odds are way too low for a team with no playoff experience. Even if the Thunder do win the championship, you won’t be losing sleep over a +170 prop you missed out on two months earlier. 

Pick: Pass

Boston Celtics: +190

Remember how I said you won’t lose sleep over a +170 prop? Well, I am about to heavily endorse the Boston Celtics at +190. Boston hasn’t been quite as dominant as the Thunder this season, but they frankly haven’t had to be. The Celtics have the benefit of playing in the Eastern Conference, which is full of bad teams and easy victories. They will face off against the Orlando Magic in the first round and are -7000 favorites to advance in that series. A second round date with the Knicks or Pacers could be slightly more challenging, but these teams are still nothing compared to the Western Conference contenders. The reality is the Celtics have the easier path to the Finals, they have all the playoff experience in the world after winning the chip last year, yet have higher odds than the Thunder. 

The Celtics did what many championship-winning teams do, and that is run it back with the same roster. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have developed into perennial NBA superstars alongside one another in Boston. Tatum may have fallen short in terms of personal accolades last season, but his partnership with Brown is hard to slow down. The Celtics have a well-rounded starting lineup surrounding the pair too. Jrue Holiday is praised as one of the defensive masterminds in the league, but he is still underrated. His ability to slow down the best guard on the opponent's roster is something that doesn’t get talked about enough. Without Holiday, the Celtics wouldn’t have won last year, and he will be a crucial part of their run this season. Kristaps Porzingis is far from a traditional big man, as his ability to shoot threes allows the Celtics to stretch their opponent’s defense. It isn’t uncommon to see all five Celtics waiting behind the arc just to charge in for the offensive rebounds as a unit. Derrick White rounds out the starting five, and the Celtics also have sixth man of the year frontrunner Payton Pritchard to give them support off the bench. The playoff experience, combined with another easy path to the Finals, means we can rationalize taking the Celtics at +190 odds. However, their first round lay-up ensures these odds are unlikely to change anytime soon, so you can always wait a couple of games to see how motivated the Celtics are to repeat as champions before locking in your bet. 

Pick: Boston Celtics +190 (2-Units)

Cleveland Cavaliers +650

The Cavaliers have been overlooked this season despite leading the conference for the entire year. Their red-hot 15-game win streak to start the season was impressive, and they also ripped off a 16-game win streak later in the year. The Cavs limped out of the playoffs last season after injuries derailed their championship run, but a healthy Cavaliers team combined with a wide open Eastern Conference ensures there is plenty of value at +650. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have been excellent in the backcourt, and the towering duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen means there is nothing easy inside either. The Cavaliers are the perfect team for the modern-day NBA, as they shoot the ball well, crash the glass, and don’t get into foul trouble in the paint. It is a little surprising to see the Cavaliers with +650 odds despite their regular season dominance, and this is the best championship pick you can make on one of the favorites. 

The Cavaliers will have a joke of a first round matchup, and then they will not be too scared about the Pistons or Pacers in the second round either. That means we are getting +650 odds for the Cavaliers to stroll into the Conference Finals, and that is a price we can get behind. They have the best offense in the league, they rain it down from deep, and can go toe-to-toe with the Celtics if the pair meets in the Conference Finals. There is a reason they are still behind the Celtics in terms of their championship odds, but it is almost impossible to imagine any other Eastern Conference team beating Cleveland. The talent, experience, and route to the Finals makes the Cavaliers the best pick you can make heading into the playoffs. 

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +650 (3-Units)

Los Angeles Lakers +1400

LeBron James and Luka Doncic are a pair of players who were never expected to share the court. All that changed when Nico Harrison insisted on shipping Doncic, and the Lakers became an even bigger title threat the day that trade went through. While it is hard to deny a pair of superstars like Doncic and LeBron, the lack of depth for the Lakers will prevent them from making a deep playoff run. The Western Conference is full of contenders, and there will be no easy series for the Lakers this year. They face off against the Timberwolves in the first round, and a well rounded Minnesota team could easily end the Lakers hopes and dreams before they can even get going. Los Angeles is awful on the glass, and the extra possessions they concede will prevent them from doing what the public expects them to do. They are outside the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating, they don’t take care of the basketball, and have a brutal path to the Finals. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Doncic and LeBron carry this team all the way, but I certainly won’t be betting on it at this price. 

Pick: Pass

Golden State Warriors +1700

If Steph Curry wins another ring it may be time to start putting him in the GOAT conversation. Curry spearheads another dangerous Warriors team this season, and don’t let a 7th place finish deter you from taking the Warriors. Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline and catapulted itself from 11th into the playoffs. They face off against the Rockets in the first round, and the Warriors are a nightmare matchup for Houston. Golden State rebounds the ball well, and the Rockets can struggle against teams that shoot lots of threes but also crash the glass. This is the first time Butler hasn’t been the primary option on the court, which has allowed him to force up fewer shots than in the past. Golden State has no shortage of playoff experience; they are motivated to give Curry and Draymond Green the fairytale ending, and still have some good value at +1700. It will be hard to see Golden State emerge from their inevitable matchup against the Thunder in the second round, but they are worth a unit at odds like these. 

Pick: Golden State Warriors +1700 (1-Unit)

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