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2024-25 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 6/3/2025

NBA championship odds and predictions Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder

There is always something special about the NBA Finals, and there will be no shortage of storylines heading into this year’s final series. This is the first time since 1971 when the NBA Finals comprises two franchises that have never won a championship (sorry, Supersonics). The Oklahoma City Thunder have built an incredible team that will contend for years to come and have been the outright favorites for most of the year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will look to become the first player since 2013 LeBron James, to win both MVP and Finals MVP in the same season.

Across the court, the Indiana Pacers overcame long odds to reach this stage of the competition, and will not doubt that they can pull off another stunning upset. These two very deep teams will deploy ten-man rotations for most of this series and appear to be laying the blueprint for the next generation of NBA superteams. However, only one will finish off their promising seasons with the ultimate prize, so let’s dive in and find out who will lift the NBA title this season. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Oklahoma City Thunder have yet to raise a championship banner, but they have a chance to win what could go on to be the first of many NBA titles this decade. Oklahoma City was never going to be able to attract big names in free agency, so they took their time and crafted an incredible roster. They hoarded draft picks, developed their talents, and are set to reap the rewards of their patient approach. The Thunder finished the regular season with a 68-14 record, the fifth most wins in NBA history. Not only that, but their +12.9 plus/minus was the highest of all time, too. This is a team full of young star talent, and they have been able to prove the haters wrong by translating their regular season success into tangible postseason accolades. 

Oklahoma City made it look easy in round one, sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies before taking down the Denver Nuggets in seven games in round two. In the Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma City remained in control by swatting aside the Minnesota Timberwolves to set up this matchup. 

It is clear that Gilgeous-Alexander is the leader of this team, but the Thunder are certainly not a supporting cast around one superstar. Not to take anything away from the phenomenal season Gilgeous-Alexander has put together, but it has been a real team effort to reach the NBA Finals. The Thunder have a deep rotation, which allows them to play with maximum intensity on the defensive end. No one takes possessions off, and that has allowed Oklahoma City to lead the league in defensive rating this season. They have five players on their roster averaging more than one steal per game, and Chet Holmgren’s 2.0 blocks per game ensure the paint is adequately protected. 

On the offensive end, Gilgeous-Alexander deserves all the credit. His 32.7 PPG led the NBA in the regular season, and his 29.8 playoff PPG is the most amongst players who escaped the first round. His ability to drive into the paint and draw contact gets heavily criticized, but it is not his fault that he gets fouled under the hoop. Teams are forced to send him to the line to prevent easy lay-ups, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s finishing package is amongst the best the league has ever seen. The other two players averaging double-digit PPG are Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Williams has fallen off slightly in the playoffs compared to his strong regular season, but his 20/6/5 statline is still nothing to scoff at. Holmgren is on the court for defensive reasons above all else, but his presence in the frontcourt allows him to score easy baskets from close range. He also leads the team with 6.8 defensive rebounds per game, and has the fewest turnovers per game among the starters. Not to be overlooked, players like Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace have been elite defenders off the bench, and it is their presence that elevates the Thunder from a great team to a truly elite franchise. Oklahoma City truly has it all, and it is beyond frightening that this team still has four first-round picks in the upcoming NBA draft. This could be the start of a true dynasty in the NBA, as this young team is bursting with truly elite talent. 

Indiana Pacers:

The Indiana Pacers came into the postseason with +3500 odds to win the conference and +9000 odds to win the NBA championship. To say they have exceeded expectations would be an understatement, and the fan base likely would have been happy when they beat the Cavaliers as +500 underdogs in the second round. Indiana made quick work of the Milwaukee Bucks to kick off their playoff journey, and then went on to beat the Cavaliers in five games too. The Pacers were then facing a tough task against the feisty New York Knicks, but they won the first two games at Madison Square Garden and never looked back. 

The Pacers are built in a very similar style to the Thunder, as they developed their draft picks rather than swinging for the fences with big free agent signings. They have an incredibly deep team capable of matching their defensive intensity, and this could turn into a battle of the bench units as the series goes deeper. 

It was revealed that Tyrese Haliburton was voted as the league’s most overrated player during the regular season, and he appears to have taken that personally. Haliburton has gone from an important piece of the Pacers team to their full-blown leader. His 9.8 assists per game lead the NBA, and he is the only player in the top 12 of assists to average fewer than 2 turnovers per game. His responsibility with the basketball makes everyone on the court around him better, and Haliburton is ushering in the next archetype of NBA point guards. He can score from all three levels, he can pass the ball without turning it over, and he is no slouch on the defensive end either. While the ECFMVP award went to Pascal Siakam, there is no denying the fact that Haliburton is the heart and soul of the Pacers team. 

The Pacers have been able to play incredibly fast-paced basketball thanks to their strong rotations and ‘next man up’ mentality. They have eight players on their team averaging eight or more PPG, and no one turns the ball over more than twice per game. They are the most unselfish team the NBA has seen in years, and it has allowed them to outwork teams like the Knicks during their postseason run. The perfect example was on display in game six against New York with Thomas Bryant. Bryant was averaging just 2.4 PPG in the postseason before a scorching 3/3 run from behind the arc allowed him to extend the Pacers lead in the second half. There aren’t many playoff teams of the past that would’ve allowed their 10th or 11th rotation player to see the court, let alone take a trio of shots, but that is exactly how the Pacers are built. This is the only team in the league with the depth to match the Thunder, and Indiana will feel confident they can pull off a third consecutive upset with the world watching this series. 

Series Prediction: 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming into this series as massive favorites, and I would have to say I agree. The roster the Thunder have created is nothing short of remarkable, and you simply cannot overlook their sustained regular-season dominance, considering they have shown no signs of slowing down. All five previous teams that finished the regular season with a +11 or more point differential went on the win the NBA title. On the outside, Gilgeous-Alexander will neutralize the threat of Haliburton and will force someone else on the Pacers to beat them. The NBA MVP earned the award for his work on the offensive end, but it is crucial to remember what he does on defense, too. He was able to slow down Anthony Edwards, Jamal Murray, and Ja Morant so far this postseason, and there is no reason to expect anything else against Haliburton. The only way I see the Pacers having a chance in this series is through Myles Turner. Turner will be on either Hartenstein or Holmgren for most of this series, and both of those men struggle with mobile opponents. Turner can drift behind the arc and punish the Thunder from deep, and Indiana will need a heavy dosage of Turner offense to pull off this upset. However, I just don’t see that happening. Indiana relies on their depth to compensate for their average starting five, and they simply won’t have that advantage against Oklahoma City. There are certainly arguments to be made that the Thunder will also struggle without a depth advantage, but their starting five is simply so much better. Oklahoma City has a real difference maker with Gilgeous-Alexander, and the rest of their roster matches up nicely against Indiana. I have doubted the Pacers in the past, and you can see where that has gotten me, but there is no overlooking the Thunder’s dominance. Indiana will steal a home game in this series, but Oklahoma City will jump out to a 2-0 lead and never look back. 

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 5 Games

Best Bets:
The Thunder are coming into this series with -750 odds to win the NBA championship, and that is a line we will be avoiding. Instead, we will look at the series spread of the Thunder to win by -2.5 games for our primary bet. This is coming in at -125 odds and will cash if Oklahoma City wins this series in either four or five games. Fading the Pacers on a spread like this may seem shortsighted, but I truly believe the Pacers benefited from a clear path to the NBA Finals. They took down Milwaukee without Damian Lillard, then beat a Cleveland team that has never gone colder from deep, before running over the Knicks bench with their fast break offense. Oklahoma City will not let Indiana run through them, and I struggle to see how the Pacers win multiple games of this series. The Thunder will be -400 favorites at home, and as long as they take care of business while splitting the games in Indiana, they will win in five games and cover this series spread. 

For the second bet of this series, we will be attacking the three-point market. Haliburton is the odds-on favorite to lead the series with +110 odds to do so, but we will take Lugentz Dort at +500 odds. Dort was cold from behind the arc against the Timberwolves, but he has the volume needed to finish this series on top. His willingness to stretch the defense and never stop firing is what you are looking for with odds like these, and Dort is a great longshot to cheer for in the NBA Finals. 

Top Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5 Games) -125

Pick: Lugentz Dort to Lead the Series in Threes +500

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