2022-23 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 5/31/2023

NBA Championship odds and predictions Nikola Jokic

After 1,230 regular season games, and a grueling postseason, it all comes down to this. The Miami Heat square off against the Denver Nuggets with an NBA Championship on the line. The Nuggets went a perfect 8-0 at home through the first three rounds and have used their No. 1 seed to their advantage. Home court advantage with a perfect home record is a fantastic recipe for success in the NBA postseason. The Heat have had a much steeper hill to climb, as after they clinched a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, they’ve been playing without the comfort of home court for the last month and a half. The No. 8 seed Heat are here thanks to their role players stepping up through injuries, and a 6-4 road record thus far. Both teams will be eager to etch their legacies in the history books and are just 4 wins away from winning the sport’s most lucrative prize.

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Denver Nuggets

While they weren’t always the title favorites, the Denver Nuggets always knew they’d still be alive at this stage of the season. The Nuggets took over first place in the West on December 20 of last year and haven’t looked back since. After cruising to a 53-win season, the Nuggets made quick work of their first round matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic scored 26.2 PPG, grabbed 12.4 Rebounds and chipped in with 9.0 Assists, and looked ready for more at the end of Game 5. He is the heartbeat of this team. And now that the oft injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have managed to stay on the court, the Nuggets are where they always knew a healthy lineup could take them. After swatting aside Minnesota, the Nuggets had a date with the Western Conference favorites, the Phoenix Suns. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker played admirably, but it was ultimately the Nuggets depth and bench that was able to outscore the Suns bench and lead them to a relatively comfortable 4-2 series victory. The Nuggets were now 4 wins away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history, but LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers stood in their way. Needless to say, the Nuggets prevailed, but the manner of which they dispatched the greatest player of all time put the league on notice. A 4-0 sweep gave them a huge rest advantage over Miami heading into the Finals, and a rested Nuggets lineup with home court advantage is not a tantalizing task even for the league’s best.

Nikola Jokic gets all the credit for Denver’s rise to glory, as he rightfully should, but he is just 1 of 5 Nuggets on the court at any time, and his supporting cast deserves some respect, too. Murray and Porter Jr. always knew there would be pressure on the Nuggets without any injury concerns to fall back on, and they’ve delivered. Murray has averaged 27.9 PPG, while Porter Jr. has put in 14.6 PPG, on 40.8% from behind the arc. Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope round out the significant role players on Denver, and this team is more than talented enough, and has more than enough depth, to lift the NBA championship for the first time in franchise history.

Miami Heat

After losing to the Atlanta Hawks at home in the first play-in game and staring at a late 4th quarter deficit against the Bulls, the Miami Heat looked as though their season would be ending early. A clutch 4th quarter saw them qualify for the playoffs, but a date with the Milwaukee Bucks would be no easy task. In Game 1, Tyler Herro got severely injured, and a tough task got even tougher. While he’s expected to be back sometime during the Finals, the Heat’s path to that stage was uphill. A Game 1 victory gave the Heat hope. However, after getting smoked in Game 2, it looked as though the Game 1 loss was nothing but a blip for the Bucks. However, the Heat rattled off 3 straight wins and set up a favorable second round matchup with the Knicks. In a defensive battle, the Heat took down New York, giving them a chance at redemption for their 2022 ECF loss to the Celtics. After jumping out to a 3-0 series lead, the Heat had all but booked their place in the Finals. But just as Kevin Millar said for the 2004 Red Sox, the Celtics came into Game 4 with a ‘don’t let us get one’ mentality. The Celtics rattled off 3 straight wins of their own, setting up a Game 7 at TD Garden in Boston. An early Tatum injury hung over the matchup, but the Heat never took their foot off the gas and took advantage of Boston’s inability to hit the 3, ultimately blowing them out and clearing out a packed TD Garden before the final whistle.

While the Heat came into the playoffs as the 8 seed in the East, Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra never wavered from their confident stance. The Heat made the 2020 Finals and secured the number 1 seed in the East last season. The unit knew they had what it took to compete, and they went on the floor and proved it. Butler is beyond crucial to the Heat’s success, with calls for a DNA test with Michael Jordan gaining legitimacy. ‘HIMmy Butler’ refused to slow down regardless of his health, or his opponent, and truly filled the Heat with belief that they can take it one step further than their 2020 Finals defeat. But he didn’t do it alone. Caleb Martin has blossomed into a star and put the basketball world on notice that he has the potential to become a league wide superstar. While he fell short of winning ECF MVP, losing 5-4 to Butler, Martin, who averaged a career high 9.6 PPG in the regular season, will be more than happy with his uptick in usage and efficiency in the postseason, which led to 19.3 PPG against the Celtics. Without him, there is no chance the Heat would be where they are today.

Series Breakdown:

First things first… if the Nuggets maintain home court advantage, this will not be a lengthy series. The Nuggets have turned Ball Arena into a fortress, and Miami will need to win at least 1 road game to have any chance of upsetting their opponents for the 4th straight series. Regardless of the venue, the Heat will struggle to contain 2-time, and should’ve been 3-time, MVP Nikola Jokic. Bam Adebayo struggled in the paint against the Celtics, and his matchup won’t be getting any easier with Jokic. The Serbian superstar can pass, shoot, and truly puts his brilliant mind in a large frame to use. There is no way to stop Jokic, just attempt to slow him down and outscore his production on the offensive end. The Heat found success playing a zone defense against the Celtics, but if Jokic gets a switch on Lowry, Vincent, or Strus on the outside, he has the potential to drain mid and long range buckets and is more than capable of driving and kicking if the double team comes. Butler will also have his work cut out for him against Murray. However, after shutting down Jaylen Brown in the 3rd round, a player with a very similar skillset to Murray, he will be confident he can limit the Canadian’s impact on the series.

On the offensive end, the Heat will need another dominant showing from Martin, in addition to offensive improvements from Butler and Adebayo to compete. It would surprise no one if the Heat quickly dug themselves a 2-0 hole. And if each and every player on the lineup isn’t playing at their best, they will struggle to keep it close. Their ability to consistently hit 3’s ensures they are never out of a contest, and Spoelstra’s mid game adjustments quickly stop the bleeding when things aren’t going their way. If Porter Jr. and Bruce Brown fall asleep on the defensive end, the Heat will immediately make them pay with a bucket from deep.

Series Prediction:

The Nuggets are coming in as rightful favorites and are eager to secure the first championship in franchise history for Denver. While I’d love to be bold and take Miami, I just think the Heat are a tier below the Nuggets. Once you factor in the massive rest advantage, and the skill discrepancy in the paint, this one may be over quick. The Heat have been doubted before, as they were +500 to advance against the Bucks, +150 against the Knicks, +450 against the Celtics, and are +325 against the Nuggets. They’ve cashed as the underdog in 3 straight series, but their good fortune expires here. Jokic is simply unmatchable. And when you have the best player on the court in the NBA, it often results in a victory. Now that the Nuggets have the depth needed to support Jokic, I expect them to maintain their perfect home record through the first two games, split Games 3 and 4 in Miami, before closing it out in Denver in Game 5. While it wouldn’t completely surprise me if the Heat got the job done, Denver is the better team, with the better players, and will have a great taste in their mouth for the next few months after winning the championship.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets in 5 Games

Best Bets:

The first bet to make is on the exact score. The Nuggets will be around -400 favorites in each of their home games and will likely be short favorites on the road, too. If they can steal a game in Miami next week, a +220 price tag on them winning exactly 4-1 is suddenly a lot more appealing. They have too many advantages to let this slip, which leads me into the next bet.

A much safer proposition on the Nuggets is on the (-1.5 Games) series handicap. A -150 price tag is much more appealing than the -420 for them to prevail. And as long as the Heat don’t take it to 7 games, the bet will cash. The Heat have had a good run, but this Cinderella story will fall one step short, with Jokic winning his first career championship, and the Finals MVP award (-300) to go along with it.

Pick: Denver Nuggets (-1.5) Games -150 3 Units

Pick: Denver Nuggets win 4-1 +220 2 Units

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Start:	June 2, 2023 @ 7:10 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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2022-23 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

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