2023-24 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions
The NBA Playoffs are fast approaching, and there has never been a better time to lock in your championship bet. The brackets have yet to be set, and once they are, there is a high chance these odds will no longer be available. Additionally, there is a much shorter wait for the bet to cash compared to a preseason bet, but most of the upside remains intact. Both conferences have seen two clearcut contenders emerge from the chasing pack. However, are they worthy of your hard earned cash? Here are the top 4 contenders, with a longshot from each conference.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
Boston Celtics +200
The Celtics have been the NBA title favorites for the duration of the season, and there is nothing to suggest they haven’t earned that position. They lead the league with a 57-15 record and have already clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference before any other NBA team has even clinched a playoff spot. They have locked up home court throughout the postseason as a result, and their 32-3 home record speaks for itself. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be critical to the Celtics offensive success, and the valuable chemistry and postseason experience they’ve collected in the recent Celtics playoff runs will be crucial. Tatum is still the clear leader on the team and will need to be at his best in the playoffs.
Every championship team needs a clear leader, a deep starting lineup, and solid play on both ends of the court. Boston’s depth is not an issue, as Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White comprised an excellent bottom half of the starting 5. Holiday’s introduction into the Boston lineup has elevated their defensive play dramatically, as there are no better isolation defenders than Holiday. His ability to clamp down the opposition’s lead guard will come in handy against the Bucks (Damian Lillard), Knicks (Jalen Brunson), and Cavaliers (Donovan Mitchell). All the other Eastern contenders rely on solid guard play for offensive success, and Boston will be able to shut them down.
There is no question that Boston is a deserving favorite. However, whether or not a +200 future can be justified remains to be seen. I absolutely believe there is value here. Boston has a clear path to the NBA Finals, as the East is lacking other true contenders. Once they get there, they will likely be the favorites once again, and this +200 price will age very nicely.
Pick: Boston Celtics +200
Denver Nuggets +300
The Nuggets are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since the 2018 Warriors, and they have all the tools needed to do so. Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to win his third MVP award in the last 4 years, and he would love nothing more than to add another Finals win and MVP to his mantle. The Nuggets are still battling to secure the top seed in the West. And if they do so, these odds will plummet. At +300 odds, it isn't hard to justify a bet on the defending champions.
The Nuggets may be stuck in a very competitive Western Conference, but they have the championship pedigree their competition is missing. The fact that their roster remained largely unchanged from last year ensures every member of the Denver squad knows exactly what they need to do in order to be successful. On offense, Jokic is able to provide highlight reel assists on a nightly basis, and he has the shooters capable of knocking down open looks. Jokic drives to the paint with such efficiency, as if there is no double team, he usually scores. And if the opponent sends two, he is able to find the open man on the perimeter. Between Jamal Murray, Micheal Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets have no shortage of shooters. Their defense is still in the top 10 in the league. And with solid coaching, there is really nothing in the Nuggets way. At +300, they are certainly worth a wager.
Pick: Denver Nuggets +300
LA Clippers +550
The Clippers have all the puzzle pieces needed to win the first championship in franchise history, The question is whether or not they can put it all together down the stretch. Their quartet of perennial All-Stars ensure that there’s no shortage of talent in LA, but their inability to stay on the court together, and lack of playoff experience, has cast doubt around the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard is still the cornerstone of the franchise, as his two previous championships and Finals MVPs makes him the most experienced on the squad. Russell Westbrook and James Harden both have one lone Finals appearance back in 2012, where they lost in 5 games, while Paul George is yet to reach the NBA summit.
The Clippers have the offense. However, with several eager shooters, if they continue to fail to move the ball around, they will fall short against the league’s best. On defense, LA has fallen off a cliff, as after a hot start they are now in the bottom half defensively. They haven’t been able to limit open looks. And in the modern-day NBA, that is a recipe for failure. This +550 price isn’t long enough to take a shot with the Clippers, as in a very crowded Western Conference there are equally likely teams with much longer odds. It wouldn’t be shocking if a team with this kind of talent makes a deep playoff run, but the price isn’t long enough to warrant a bet.
Pick: Pass
Milwaukee Bucks +700
The Bucks grip on the second seed in the East is slowly slipping, as a 5-5 run has them just 2 games up on the surging New York Knicks. Milwaukee is a very interesting team to follow, as they’ve had a complete identity shift from last season. Previously, the Bucks were known for their lockdown defense coupled with a towering Giannis Antetokounmpo coming down the court the other way. This earned them a 2021 championship, but a first-round collapse last season led management to blow the team up. Milwaukee lost elite perimeter defender Jrue Holiday, among others, in exchange for Damian Lillard’s arrival in Milwaukee. Lillard is the elite shooter the Bucks head office thought they were missing, but his lack of effort on the defensive end has seen a defensive powerhouse turn into a middle-of-the-pack unit.
The Bucks are fortunate to be in a barren Eastern Conference, as outside of the Celtics they lack legitimate title threats. However, that doesn’t mean we’ll be running to the window to place a +700 bet. The Knicks, Cavs, 76ers, and Heat are all more than capable of upsetting the Bucks, and a lack of effort on the defensive end will cost them valuable playoff possessions. Milwaukee will always have a solid chance to win if they can surround their two-way threat Antetokounmpo with shooters, but Lillard’s production and efficiency have dropped in his first season with the Bucks. The nagging injuries surrounding their role players also cast doubt as to the legitimacy of a potential Bucks title run, and this team will seriously struggle to win four straight playoff rounds. Despite the wide-open East, we’d still need a longer price to take on a team with this many flaws.
Pick: Pass
Eastern Conference Sleeper: New York Knicks +3000
The Knicks are a team that has managed to stay in the top 3 in the standings, despite missing 3 of their 4 best players for a majority of the season, Julius Randle and OG Anunoby are both still out, but the return of Mitchell Robinson from a 50-game absence has given the Knicks a solid addition. Thanks to the plethora of injuries, the Knicks have been able to rotate their team, and suddenly have a 8-9 man rotation they can truly trust in the postseason. Players like Donte DiVincenzo and Isiah Hartenstein have blossomed in their increased roles, and the Knicks have enough depth to make a deep run. Additionally, their truly elite defense will give them a chance against anyone in the league. They’ve given up just 102.4 PPG since January 1, and head coach Tom Thibodeau will ensure this team doesn’t take their foot off the gas. Thanks to their spot in the standings, the Knicks will likely be facing the 6th seed in the first round, before the Bucks in the second. Those are two extremely winnable matchups. And if the Knicks make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, this +3000 ticket will become extremely valuable. As long as one of Randle or Anunoby can return this season, the Knicks have everything they need to make a deep playoff run.
Western Conference Sleeper: New Orleans Pelicans +6600
The Pelicans have been seemingly forgotten in a wild West, but they still have all the upside needed to take a shot with their +6600 odds. New Orleans has finally been able to stay mostly healthy. And if that trend can continue, they have what it takes to make a shock Finals run. Zion Williamson has been his usual dominant self, and the amount of depth the Pelicans have could allow them to survive a grueling 2 months of playoffs. They have the size with Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas inside and have lengthy shooters like Brandon Ingram raining it down from the perimeter. On offense, this team is extremely hard to slow down, and they aren’t much easier on the other end. The Pelicans are competent on both ends of the court and have the star power combined with depth to justify a bet at this price.
Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent NBA Handicapping
- NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Thursday 4/25/2024
- Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/25/2024
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks
- NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Wednesday 4/17/2024
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Tuesday 4/16/2024