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Early Value in 2022 NBA Finals MVP Odds

by Sean Barnard - 4/27/2022

NBA Finals MVP Odds Stephen Curry

The NBA Playoffs are in full swing, with teams beginning to be sent home for the offseason. There is still plenty of time to cash in on potential profits with many future bets still holding value. There is a clearer picture of matchups and schedules of the remaining teams, so capitalizing on future bets for the remainder of the postseason is a sound plan. One prop bet that often does not get enough attention is the Finals MVP.­

While there are exceptions, the Finals MVP is typically given to the best player on the championship team. Taking a swing on the best player of the expected winner often holds a larger payout without much-added risk. Looking ahead to the lines on the Finals MVP for the remaining NBA teams, there seems to be some clear value (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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NBA Championship Odds:

Jerry West is the only player to win Finals MVP without his team taking home the title. This occurred in 1969 and was the first year the award became available. West averaged 37.9 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.7 rebounds in the series despite the loss. However, the award has gone to a player on the winning team in the other 52 years of its existence. Looking ahead to the remaining teams, here are the championship odds:

Golden State Warriors: +320

Phoenix Suns: +430

Boston Celtics: +460

Miami Heat: +550

Milwaukee Bucks: +650

Memphis Grizzlies: +1000

Philadelphia 76ers: +1600

Dallas Mavericks: +1600

There has already been a great deal of movement in the championship lines with the first round of games winding down. The Warriors sent a reminder to the NBA that they are still a dominant force and have climbed to the title favorite for good reason. The Celtics have also forced themselves into the legitimate contender conversation with their four-game sweep over the Nets to open up the playoffs. The Phoenix Suns have also had a difficult stretch due to the hamstring injury to Devin Booker. The Suns' star has been out since his 31-point performance in Game 2. Booker could miss up to 2-3 weeks with the injury but is sure to pick up where he left off assuming the Suns can survive without him.

NBA Finals MVP Odds:

Stephen Curry: +460

Jayson Tatum: +600

Jimmy Butler: +700

Giannis Antetokounmpo: +700

Chris Paul: +950

Devin Booker: +950

Ja Morant: +1100

Luka Doncic: +1600

Joel Embiid: +1900

Draymond Green: +2700

Jaylen Brown: +3200

Bam Adebayo: +3500

Jordan Poole: +4600

This is not a bet that should be overcomplicated. The award should not be expected to be given to a longshot player, which is proven in the star-studded list of odds. The mindset for this bet is that you are predicting the champion and receiving added value by betting the star to win MVP.

Steph Curry:

There is great value in Steph Curry’s Finals MVP line at +460. While Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson each deserve a ton of praise for their high level of play to start the postseason, Steph Curry is still the team’s superstar. Due to injury, Curry began the playoffs on a minute limit and has seen his court time increase throughout the first series. His production has resumed, and the 34-year-old will continue getting back to his normal self as the playoffs continue. Steph Curry has three NBA titles but zero Finals MVPs thus far. This year could be the time he checks off the empty box on his accolades.

Devin Booker:

The Suns have clearly been the best team in the NBA this season. Devin Booker was excellent in the game and a half he was active before suffering his injury. He plays a vital role in what the Suns do offensively, and this will resume once he returns. The bigger question here is if the Suns will be able to survive without Booker being able to play. The Pelicans put up a fight in round one, and the Suns have not clicked the way they did in the regular season. Even still, the massive dip in odds seems larger than it should be. Expect Phoenix to get back to the dominant team they have been all season if Booker can come back at full strength. The hamstring injury is certainly the reason for the dip, but the +950 line is incredible value for the guy who would otherwise be the odds-on favorite.

Jayson Tatum:

The evolution of Jayson Tatum as a legitimate NBA superstar is occurring right in front of our eyes. Tatum went toe-to-toe with Kevin Durant in the opening round and send the Nets packing in just four games. Tatum averaged 19.5 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.5 rebounds in the opening series. The Celtics have played some of the best basketball in the NBA in the second half of the season and continued building off this momentum in the postseason. The first round of the playoffs was about much of a statement as Tatum and the Celtics could have made. Look for them to build on this and follow through with their deep playoff run. If the Celtics can continue building off this momentum and win a title, it would certainly be largely due to Tatum’s strong play. The +600 line is a nice bump over the Celtics' +460 title odds.

Giannis Antetokounmpo:

It is tough to bet against the defending champion and reigning Finals MVP at such an intriguing line. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the driving force of the Milwaukee Bucks, and the 2021 champions are still greatly in the conversation to win this season. The heavyweight matchup with the Celtics in the semifinals is likely to decide who will come out of the Eastern Conference. The injury to Khris Middleton may have hurt the Bucks' chances. However, at the level Giannis is playing at, it may not even matter. Taking the line at +700 is great value for a guy who won the award just last year.

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