NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 8/22/2025

NFL survivor pool picks Week 1 Evan Engram Denver Broncos

Survivor pools are one of the most thrilling ways to bet on the NFL. Long before single-game betting became mainstream, survivor pools were the go-to with their simple yet challenging format. The rules are straightforward. For each of the 18 weeks this season, you pick one team to win outright. The point spread and the odds don’t matter, as long as you win and ‘survive’ the week. While it may seem simple to take the biggest favorite every week, the catch is that you can only take each team once this season. For example, if you take the mighty Philadelphia Eagles to open up their season with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys, you cannot pick the Eagles again this season. The ‘safe’ options quickly run out, so planning and taking early, calculated risks are the only ways you will have a chance in your survivor pool. Fortunately, Doc’s Sports will be with you along the way. All season long, free survivor pool advice will be provided each week to help you navigate the complicated world of survivor pools. Without further ado, here are the 16 Week 1 matchups ranked from most to least confident.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Denver Broncos (-7.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Denver Broncos will be the first official survivor pool pick. They are the biggest favorite of Week 1, and rightfully so. Tennessee struggles on both sides of the ball, and they didn’t get enough reinforcements this offseason to compete against a team like Denver. This Broncos side has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, and shutting down rookie QB Cam Ward will be their top priority. Bo Nix will look fantastic to kick off his sophomore season, and it is impossible to imagine the Broncos losing at home. This will be a square, and a popular pick this week, but sometimes that is simply the way to go. We have lots of time to deviate from popular strategy, and there is no reason to get cute with 100% of entries still alive.

Washington Commanders (-6.5) Over New York Giants

Divisional matchups are usually good to avoid in survivor pools, but there is simply no way the New York Giants upset the Washington Commanders in Week 1. Jayden Daniels burst onto the scene last year for Washington, and the team around him is even better heading into this year. The Commanders may not be able to replicate their stunning season last year, but they will be able to kick things off with a feel-good win in front of their home fans.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) Over New Orleans Saints

Fading the New Orleans Saints will be a popular strategy this season, and even a middling team like the Cardinals can make this look easy. Kyler Murray is long overdue for his breakout season, and maybe it will never come. While Murray hasn’t lived up to expectations, Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler have both looked dreadful. The Saints are financially constrained, they have a shortage of young talent, and could even go 0-17 this season. Arizona doesn’t have too many easier games on its schedule either, and this isn’t a bad choice if you want to avoid the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) Over Los Angeles Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs were embarrassed in the Super Bowl last season, but that will not stop Patrick Mahomes and company from obliterating the Chargers. The international twist could always throw a curveball in this matchup, but the Chiefs have had the Chargers' number in recent seasons. However, using the Chiefs in Week 1 is not a wise move with safer options on the board.

New England Patriots (-3) Over Las Vegas Raiders

There is a lot to like about the Patriots in this matchup. Drake Maye has looked better every time he steps on the field, and it may take some time for Geno Smith to get used to a new offense. Not only that, but the Patriots' defensive advantages will make that transition even harder. This will be a low-scoring game of inches, and that plays exactly into the hands of New England. If you are looking to mix things up in Week 1, take the Patriots to get the job done as they are the contrarian pick of the week.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) Over Miami Dolphins

The Indianapolis Colts made the surprising decision to start Daniel Jones in Week 1. While this is a controversial move with the future in mind, Jones is a reliable NFL starter, while Anthony Richardson is still a raw talent. Across the field, the Dolphins have serious issues on both sides of the ball, in the locker room, and pretty much everywhere in their organization right now. A positive Week 1 result would lift those spirits, but the Colts are marginally better in every position, and that will be enough for the win at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) Over Dallas Cowboys

This is the favorite to stay away from this week. The Eagles are primed for a Super Bowl hangover against a hungry Cowboys side. Dallas will be far better than most people think this season, and a victory over the defending champions would not surprise me in the slightest. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that can match the Eagles' physicality, and this game will be much closer to a toss-up than the spread suggests. Saying that, the Eagles are still a truly dominant team and will probably find a way to get the job done.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Over New York Jets

How will Aaron Rodgers look with the Steelers? The future Hall of Famer has the defense he needs to thrive, and I expect a better start than he had in his first game with the Jets two years ago. New York has no choice but to march out Justin Fields at quarterback, and he will look lost against a daunting Steelers defense.

Chicago Bears (+1.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

The Bears and Vikings wrap up Week 1 on Monday night, and Chicago is a great option to target this week. Minnesota doesn’t know what they will get from JJ McCarthy after a year on the sidelines, and Caleb Williams did well in primetime games last year. Chicago made several changes on both sides of the ball this offseason, and their bolstered defense will give the Vikings real issues. There are safer picks out there, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking the Bears this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) Over Cleveland Browns

Divisional games come with their own problems, but that is only amplified against a team like the Browns. Cleveland has no pressure on them to kick off the season, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals are running out of time to deliver tangible results. A road game against the physical Browns is never an easy task, and Cleveland will make this a dirty, slow game in the trenches. Are the Bengals good enough to win? Yes. Will I be betting my survivor pool life on them? Certainly not.

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) Over Houston Texans

This will be a game with serious playoff implications early in the season, as both of these teams are seen as dark horses this year. While CJ Stroud will likely improve on his sophomore slump last year, Matthew Stafford and a motivated Rams team cannot be overlooked. The Rams retooled their dominant offense to get even better, and they could easily put up 30+ at home.

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta has home-field advantage in this divisional matchup, and they will be able to will their way to victory in Georgia. Tampa Bay has no shortage of offensive talent to choose from, but its lack of run stoppers will allow Bijan Robinson to feast. If the Falcons can find a way to take the lead thanks to Michael Penix Jr, this will be their game to lose in the second half.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) Over Detroit Lions

If this game were later in the year, we would probably be taking the Lions. However, even though Detroit has the on-field skill advantage, there may be some miscommunications with a new coaching staff. Green Bay has much more continuity from last year than the Lions and will be playing at the daunting Lambeau Field. Slight lean for the Packers, but probably a good idea to stay away.

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) Over San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks opted to ship out Geno Smith to make space for Sam Darnold, and that move will pay dividends in Week 1. It is hard to fade the 49ers at any point in the season, but this is a side that lost 7 of their last 8 games last season. They are still far from healthy and are now also dealing with suspensions. The Seahawks also have home-field advantage in this matchup, and face a difficult schedule this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) Over Carolina Panthers

Do not put your survivor pool life on the line with either of these dumpster fires at this stage of the season. One of these cats could turn into a semi-reliable option later in the season, but neither can be trusted right now.

Baltimore Ravens (+1) Over Buffalo Bills

These are two of the best teams in the league, and cannot even be considered in a close matchup like this. If you take either side in Week 1, refresh yourself with the survivor pool rules.

Official survivor pool pick of the week: Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans

Contrarian pick of the week: New England Patriots over Las Vegas Raiders

Teams used: None

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Start:	August 28, 2025 @ 7:15 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Advice and Predictions

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