2024 Super Bowl Quarterback Props Odds and QB Predictions
There is no doubt that the NFL is firmly in the ‘team sport’ category. However, on every NFL roster, one man is the clear leader. There isn’t a more important position than an NFL quarterback, and millions of eyes will tune in to see Patrick Mahomes compete in his 4th Super Bowl in the last 5 years. Brock Purdy went from being the last pick in the 2022 draft, to starting at quarterback for the Super Bowl favorites less than 2 years later.
There are few props more exhilarating than quarterback props. Whether it’s rushing yards, passing yards, or touchdowns, since the quarterback gets the ball every single play, there will always be a ‘what if’ aura on each snap. Both signal callers will be eager to leave a lasting impression for years to come, and there is plenty of money to be made in this matchup.
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Patrick Mahomes is getting ready to suit up for his 4th Super Bowl in the last 5 years, and he already has 2 Lombardi trophies with the MVP award on his mantle. The dual-threat quarterback has elevated the Chiefs to a dynasty level franchise, and his lines are ready for Sunday’s big game.
In the passing game, Mahomes is coming in with a 261.5 passing yards total and has a -150 price tag for over 1.5 touchdowns through the air. These lines make a ton of sense, as Mahomes went over 261.5 yards in 8/16 regular season games, and 1/3 playoff matchups. However, Mahomes turns it up in the postseason to another level, and the fate of the Chiefs Super Bowl hopes rests on his shoulders. In the playoffs, he’s a different animal. Mahomes’ ability to stay in the pocket and read defenses seems to get amplified in the postseason, as he elects to pass the ball more frequently, averaging 282.5 yards in his 17 previous playoff games.
When placing a bet on the passing yards of a quarterback, the game script has a huge role to play. Late in games, a team facing a deficit will abandon the run game in favor of the more efficient passing game. If the Chiefs find themselves trailing late in the game, the Chiefs playbook will be wide open, and Mahomes’ passing yards will benefit. The 49ers defensive unit will happily give up 5-6 yard passing plays through the middle of the field, while limiting the balls over the top. The run game will eat up clock, leaving the ball in Mahomes’ hands more often than not. It’s easy to forget lowly Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders led the league in passing yards through 14 weeks, thanks to his team consistently trailing late in games. However, if the Chiefs have a late lead, the passing game will evaporate. Gaining chunks of yardage is no longer the priority, as chewing up the clock becomes the main concern. There will be very few passing plays. And when there is, they will be short completions to keep the clock rolling. Because of this, there is only one way to attack this prop, and that is the Under 261.5 yards. I firmly expect this to be a competitive game, and anything short of a 49ers blowout will see the Chiefs play it safe on offense and lean on their trusty defensive unit. Mahomes is here to steal the show, but Andy Reid will keep him in check as long as the score remains close. Despite a 38-35 scoreline that featured a double-digit halftime deficit for Kansas City, Mahomes still threw for just 182 yards at last year's Super Bowl. A strong defense and solid run game is how the Chiefs got here, and they will not abandon that for flashy passing plays when it matters most.
The touchdown market is intriguing, as a 1.5 touchdown line juiced to the Over feels about right, but it still has me taking the Over. Mahomes is about as reliable as they come in the red zone, throwing for 39 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions throughout his postseason career. Despite the juice, Mahomes is who the Chiefs want in the red zone. And unless the ball is on the 1- or 2-yard line, Isiah Pacheco will be taking a backseat. Over 1.5 touchdowns feels safe, regardless of the outcome.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 261.5 passing yards
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdowns -150
On one side of the ball, we have Patrick Mahomes, winner of 2 Super Bowls and an instant superstar since he put on a Chiefs uniform. On the other side of the ball, we have Brock Purdy, the last overall pick, perennially doubted, and never given the credit he deserves. There is no doubt Purdy has a fantastic team around him, but I’m starting to realize the naysayers aren’t the ones watching him on a weekly basis. Purdy has been able to stand in the pocket when he knows the pressure is coming and take a hit to make an accurate throw. He’s certainly not the most mobile quarterback, but his ability to consistently deliver accurate throws to his short- and mid-range targets has led to countless scoring drives for the 49ers. I’m not taking any credit away from the plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal, but Purdy is much better than he gets credit for, and I’m expecting a big game from the young gunslinger.
Purdy’s passing yardage comes in at a measly 247.5 yards and is evenly juiced with the 1.5 touchdown line. The passing yards feel a little disrespectful, as Purdy has gone Over his mark in 3/4 playoff games he’s finished, averaging 266 yards in the process. In the regular season, he went over this mark in 10/16 games, despite the 49ers taking a lead into halftime in 13/16 games.
Not all passing yards are created equal, but for the sake of betting, it doesn’t really matter. If Purdy makes a 4-yard pass to Christan McCaffrey, and he scoots away for dozens of yards after the catch, it still all goes on Purdy’s record. The 49ers love to get going in the screen game, as between Deebo Samuel and McCaffrey, the 49ers have plenty of runners who can make a man miss. The 247.5-yard line feels low regardless of who wins this one, as I expect Purdy to put up 150+ first half passing yards, then it won’t really matter what he does in the second half. The Chiefs secondary has been able to prevent big plays over the top, but that isn’t how Purdy racks up his yardage. While he’s more than capable of delivering an accurate long-range strike, there is no reason to take those chances when easy first downs are available. The Over at 247.5 is certainly the play.
While I won’t be touching the touchdown market for Purdy, as it is too unpredictable who will get the red zone opportunities, there is still one more market that I’ve been containing my excitement around. Purdy is coming in with a +200 price tag around his Super Bowl MVP award, which I simply cannot believe. Let’s take a look at the regular season. McCaffrey, (who is the only reason the price is +200) put together one of the best season’s a running back has had in recent memory and was still trailing Purdy in the MVP betting odds for a majority of the year. Lamar Jackson will probably end up winning, but arguments can easily be made that McCaffrey was better than Purdy and Jackson this year, but the MVP will still go to a QB. Purdy was drafted last overall just 2 years ago, and the NFL will happily stick to tradition and give the MVP award to the winning QB. The 49ers are -130 to win the game, making this +200 price almost unbelievable. There is always the chance the MVP committee makes up for its regular season error and gives the award to McCaffrey. However, at +200 odds, there is no chance we can leave this one on the board.
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 247.5 Passing Yards
Pick: Brock Purdy Super Bowl MVP +200
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