Super Bowl Running Back Props Predictions and Expert Handicapping
When it comes to the Super Bowl, many people have trouble picking a winner. The bettors would rather cheer for other wagers than the game itself. This year's Super Bowl features two important quarterbacks with a high win percentage. But a lot of the credit can also go to their running backs who have played extremely well as of late to help put both teams in position to win a Super Bowl. I broke down the player props for the Super Bowl running backs, Damien Williams of the Chiefs and Raheem Mostert of the 49ers. I've got the player prop that you should choice at running back.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City (U 14.5, -115)
Damien Williams has run the ball 12 times or less in three of the Chiefs last five games. The 49ers were 11th in run defense this season, allowing 104.7 yards on the ground per game. However, in the 49ers last three games, offenses have gained 69.3 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs know they'll have to rely on Patrick Mahomes to lead the way against a very good front seven on the 49ers. In the Super Bowl, you can dig deep into the playbook and call special plays. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman will likely steal a couple rushes from Williams with end arounds and other types of plays to get that speed involved in the offense. Teams run on San Francisco 23.7 times per game. That's the fifth least in the NFL this season. But in the Niners last three, teams have rushed only 18.7 times.
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Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco (O 16.5, -115)
The 49ers love running the ball. They love it because it's been effective. You can credit the Chiefs defense in the second half against the Titans, but the reality is that Henry barely got any touches. The 49ers defense will keep this game close, something the Titans couldn't do in the AFC Championship Game. A close game means the 49ers will absolutely run the ball. With Tevin Coleman sidelined, Mostert's going to be the guy. He ran for 29 times against the Packers with an average of 7.6 yards per carry. He'll get his touches in a close game.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City (U 51.5, -115)
Let's say Damien Williams gets 12 carries in this game. He averages 4.5 yards per carry. If you do the math, that'll be 54 yards. Running backs against the 49ers actually average 4.4 yards per carry. Almost everything adds up to the line. It's extremely close. I'm going to base my prediction off what the Niners have done in their last three games. San Francisco has allowed an average of 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. If Williams got 12 carries, he would only have about 44.4 yards on the ground. Take the under, but there are far better plays than this one.
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco (O 69.5, -115)
It's hard not to take over for Mostert after his 29 carry, 220-yard performance. Mostert has an even bigger role with Tevin Coleman out. San Francisco was second in the NFL in rushing attempts with 32.6 a game, and they've averaged 37.7 attempts in their last three games. I don't think San Francisco will get away from the run. They showed no fear in rushing the ball, even after Coleman was injured. If Mostert gets 20 carries and averages 5.6 yards per carry, that's 112 yards. Kansas City was one of the worst rush defenses this season, allowing an average of 4.8 yards per carry. So even if Mostert gets 20 carries and 4.8 yards per carry, he'd still have 96 yards. The over is a no brainer!
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