2021 Texas A&M Aggies Football Predictions: Season Win Total Picks
2020 Record: 9-1
2021 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.5
2021 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: ‘Under’
Texas A&M football has been making noise all offseason. It started in May when A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher boasted that the Aggies are going to “beat (Nick Saban’s) ass”. The noise continued through summer as the bobblehead media all suggested that Texas A&M is some kind of legitimate challenger to the Crimson Tide in the SEC West. And it reached a crescendo when the Aggies started the season ranked No. 6 in the country.
I’m not buying it.
Fisher has done an admirable job of stockpiling talent in College Station over the past four years. But outside of last season, which was turned upside down due to the coronavirus pandemic, Texas A&M has been a non-factor for the overwhelming majority of its time in the SEC.
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks against the spread for every game on our college football predictions page.
Also, I don’t see how the Aggies are going to lose stud quarterback Kellen Mond and four starting offensive linemen and somehow improve. Second-year freshman Haynes King won the starting quarterback job this August and has just 59 career pass attempts to his name. And the offensive line will likely have two freshmen and two sophomores starting on it.
Further, Texas A&M has beaten exactly three of the nine Top 25 opponents it has faced over the last two seasons, including beating just one ranked SEC team (Florida, at home) last year. So let’s slow down on labeling the Aggies as some kind of national champion dark horse.
A&M’s defense should be good enough to carry the team this season. They were No. 2 in the country in rushing defense and No. 9 in total defense last year. The Aggies have nine starters back from that group, and nine of their 10 leading tacklers have returned. They also added two five-star recruits along the defensive line, and there is size and strength all over this side of the ball.
I don’t believe that the defense is going to be good enough to fully compensate for an offense that I expect to take a step back and average below 30 points per game.
Texas A&M has a massive advantage with their schedule in that they only have to play three true road games all season. They have to play two pseudo-road games on neutral sites, facing Colorado in Denver and taking on Arkansas in Arlington. However, the only teams that they have to take on at their own campuses are Missouri, Ole Miss and LSU.
The Aggies have the benefit of hosting Alabama this year. And the games against Ole Miss and LSU are the only others against teams in the preseason Top 25.
I don’t know that we will get a true sense of just how good this Aggies team is because of their cushy schedule. I don’t see them beating Alabama, and that season finale at LSU is a killer. I can also see the Aggies slipping up and getting upset one other time – maybe they get caught looking ahead to ‘Bama and lose to Mississippi State – to fall short of this number.
I wouldn’t touch this wager. I know that A&M is overrated. But their schedule is so favorable that they really do have a clear path to 10 wins. If I had to pick a side, I will err on the side of the ‘under’. But it wouldn’t stun me if the Aggies lost their two biggest games and beat up on the rest of the weak sisters on their slate.
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