NFL Betting Odds: Week 10 Line Movements and Last-Minute News
Maybe it's just me, but it feels a hell of a lot better when the Oakland Raiders are relevant in the NFL for the right reasons. That was one hell of a game last night, and you could just feel the atmosphere through the TV as Oakland played just their second home game in what must have seemed like 10 years to them. With that win, the Raiders moved to within one game of the first-place Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and perhaps more importantly within half a game of the second wild-card spot in the AFC.
As we move into Week 10 , it's time to start paying close attention to the playoff picture and which teams are fighting for their playoff lives. There are a few games this week with huge implications on the standings, and we should be in for some great football and entertainment.
As always, here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 10.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans +6, 48 : Will he or won't he? That's the question and only a select few in the Kansas City Chiefs organization know if Patrick Mahomes will be under center on Sunday against Tennessee . However, when you look at the line and the line movement, you have to believe that it'll be Mahomes under center as there is no way Matt Moore should be a six-point favorite on the road against a team that has an upper echelon type of defense. This line opened up as KC -3 but has been bet up to -6, and we don't see how this is justified. Even if Mahomes is back under center, the Chiefs will likely want to get the hell out of a dodge with a win by any means necessary and focus on their upcoming Monday night game vs a division rival in LA Chargers. Ryan Tannehill gives the Titans the best chance to win, and he's played well over the last three starts, and we are inclined to trust him on his home field once again getting almost a touchdown. The total opened up at 48.5 but has dropped a half-point to 48, and we can see this game staying under the number as a great public fade.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers -5.5, 47: Nobody expected the Packers to go into Dignity Health Sports Park and lay an egg to a bad Chargers team. Nobody expected Carolina to dominate Tennessee in the fashion they did last week, but here we are. Because of those two results, bettors have decided to take a stand with Carolina and bet them down to 5.5-point underdogs, from the opening of +7. I believe that's the right move. From what we've seen out of Green Bay defensively, they have many issues and we don't see how they can correct it overnight, especially when you have an elite running back like Christian McCaffrey coming to town. With McCaffrey toting the rock at least 25 times a game, the Panthers are never out of the game and can always find the back door for a late cover. Conversely, the Panthers have the better defense in this game , and it should come as no surprise to see them sitting at 5-3 on the season. I've said it all year so far, the Packers are one of the more fraudulent 7-2 teams in the league, and I believe they'll be exposed once again this week. The total for this game has dropped a single point from 48 to 47, and we lean to the under in this spot.
New York Giants at New York Jets +2.5, 44.5: It's almost like I'm a glutton for punishment as week after week I continue to talk about these two dumpster fire organizations, and I get excited about doing so. The Giants played in over their head last week and still lost by 19 points to the Cowboys, while the Jets just flat out suck and lost to the Dolphins. Because of that (we think), this line has flipped sides and now the Giants are favored by 2.5 points, whereas the Jets opened up as 1.5- point favorites. We believe this is a good spot for the Jets to bounce back as the Giants had their Super Bowl on Monday and blew it. They are also dealing with plenty of injuries at the wide receiver position, so it wouldn't shock me to see Daniel Jones harassed all night long and throw a few more picks to add to his ever-growing total. You'd think at some point this season, Sam Darnold will have a good game, and no better time to do so than against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in total yards allowed, 25th in passing yards allowed and 29th in points allowed per game. The total opened up at 41 and has rightfully been bet up to 44.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -11, 44: It doesn't matter to me if Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, your mailman, your plumber or your aunt's distant cousin is under center for the Colts this week, Miami is not going to win two straight games. However, do we believe Brian Hoyer is good enough to cover 11 points at home against a team that is showing a little bit of life? That's the million-dollar question and one I'm not willing to answer with my own money. Look, this game opened up as Colts -15.5, but it's been bet down to -11 with the news of Hoyer potentially getting the start at QB. Even with a hobbled Brissett, the Colts have no business laying double-digits to even the Dolphins. Will they win the game outright? Yes, based on pure talent. But laying this many points to Ryan Fitzpatrick leaves the backdoor wide open, and the Dolphins have shown signs of life over the last few weeks. I wouldn't bet this game on the spread as there are much better games to handicap. Not to mention, we still don't know the status of T.Y. Hilton, who missed last week's game with a calf injury. As for the total, it's holding steady at 44 points. Take the under.
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