NFL Betting Odds: Week 7 Line Movements and Last-Minute News
I think the right thing to do to start this article is to take a minute and wish Patrick Mahomes nothing but a speedy recovery from the knee injury he suffered on Thursday night against the Denver Broncos. It's tough to see anyone, let alone the face of the NFL and a franchise quarterback, go down with a knee injury.
The next thing we should do is lay off the blame for Andy Reid. Football is a contact sport, and injuries happen. Mahomes was dealing with a bum ankle, not a bum knee, so him running a quarterback sneak on fourth and one is what all big quarterbacks should be able to successfully complete. Unfortunately, things didn't go according to plan, but it's not like Andy Reid drew up a designed quarterback run knowing full well Mahomes has a bad ankle.
As always, here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 7.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills -17, 41 : Don't look now, but the Buffalo Bills are 4-1 on the season and have extremely winnable games on deck starting with the Dolphins this week . We saw how bad Miami truly is last week against a putrid Washington team, and now they have to go on the road to face one of the best defensive units in the NFL. This number opened up as Bills -15 and has been bet up to -17 with some good reasoning. We've yet to see Miami hit the 20-point plateau, and we don't see a scenario where they do it this week. However, Buffalo has not been this big of a favorite in an extremely long time, so do we trust their sometimes-inefficient offense to do enough to put points on the board and cover this huge spread? The total has stayed put at 41, and we believe this is a tad low given the likelihood of a defensive score.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -1, 47: The last time we saw the Colts, they were running all over the Kansas City defense in a 19-13 prime time win. Now they come into this game rested off their bye week and get to take on a Houston team that has some momentum in their own right. The Texans have won two straight, which has catapulted them into first place in the AFC South. They've scored 84 points in their last two games, but those games did come against teams with extremely poor defensive units. This spread opened up as Indy -2.5 but has been bet down to Colts -1 thanks in large part to how the Texans have looked the last two weeks. This is one of those spots where the Texans seem like the play based on momentum, but the Colts defensive unit is above average, and they do have the horses on offense to put up points to keep pace. The total has dropped a tick from 47.5 to 47, and we still see that as too low a number for these two teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals +4.5, 44: If you like terrible football, please watch this game. The Jaguars head into Cincinnati to tangle with the winless Bengals, and we believe there is now value to be had with the Bengals side. Look, this spread opened up as Jaguars -3 but has since been bet up to -4.5 with the news out of Cincy that A.J. Green is still out with his injury. The Jaguars have done nothing impressive of late, and now they play their third road game in four weeks against a team that essentially has to find a way to win at least one game this season. This is a game the Bengals get up for, and now we are grabbing them at plus 4.5, which is well over the key number of three. There is too much value on the Bengals to pass up, and we believe there are more internal issues in Jacksonville than being reported. They just traded their best players away for draft picks, which tells us they are rebuilding. Don't be surprised if the Jags lay an egg in this one.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers -5, 47: I don't believe there is a more fraudulent 5-1 team in the NFL than the Green Bay Packers. Their lone loss was a bad one to Philadelphia, while their five wins came against the brutal offense of the Bears, the stupidity of Kirk Cousins, the ineptness of Joe Flacco and the Broncos, the overrated Cowboys, and their most recent win was courtesy of the refs. The Packers now have to play on short rest against a rested Raiders team that surprisingly has a little bit of momentum after winning two straight and coming off a bye. The Packers are likely to be without several key offensive weapons on Sunday, so it makes total sense that the line has been bet down from Packers -7 to Packers -5. We also believe this number could drop even lower, so grab your Raiders shares as soon as possible. Is trusting the Raiders on the road an ideal spot to get rich? Probably not, but they should be able to move the ball against a Packers defense that is actually worse in rankings than the Raiders. The Packers give up over 363 yards per game, including 124.5 on the ground. The Raiders should be able to put up points and leave Lambeau Field with, at the very least, a cover for their backers.
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