Bet on the NFL Draft: Doc's Offers Free Expert Betting Picks
The NFL Draft starts tomorrow. And it is a bit of an odd draft. The Kyler Murray drama is intense up top, though his lack of interviews and general invisibility has made that a little strange. And while there are a couple of really strong guys right behind him, the draft generally feels as broad as we have seen in a long time - a lot of really solid players, but fewer clear and obvious superstars than we are used to. A whole lot of things could happen, and what seems clear is that no one knows what is going on. Here's a look at some of the more interesting NFL Draft props available on BetOnline:
Quarterbacks selected first round - "over/under" 3.5: The over is heavily favored here at -450, with the under at +275. If you are betting on the over here, then you are likely betting on Daniel Jones of Duke. Kyler Murray is very likely to go first overall. Drew Lock and Dwayne Haskins seem destined for selection in the first half of the first round as well - though, for reasons I really don't understand, Haskins seems to be less popular than he should be. And that leaves Jones. He's a prototypical guy with big upside, and it feels like he is the kind of guy a team late in the first will be unable to resist. The complication, of course, is that if Murray goes first overall, and Arizona keeps the pick, then Josh Rosen could be had for likely a mid-round pick. A team that could be tempted to take a first-round QB here could find their needs satisfied at a lower price by Rosen. In the end, the over is rightly favored, but it sure feels like it is getting more credit than it deserves. There could be a little value in the under at the price. We should mention that there is a potential twist here, though. Stories are circulating that the Giants really like Jones and could take him sixth - which is a very Giants kind of thing to do. If they do that, then it could really shake things up. I don't buy it, though.
Wide receivers selected in first round - o/u 2.5: The over here is again strongly favored, but not by as much as the quarterbacks. It sits at -180 compared to the under at +140. This is prop that is similarly as tough as the quarterback one and could be related in an interesting way. What makes this tough is that there aren't any receivers that are going to go early - the 15th pick is the first spot in which a WR seems to be in play barring a trade. Like the QBs, it seems to come down to one player - N'Keal Harry. D.K. Metcalf and Marquise Brown, in some order, seem like the first two to go. Harry is probably in play for one of the final picks of the round. This race reminds me of the QB one because the teams that could be tempted by Neal could also opt for Jones. I actually lean towards the under here because of how crowded the bottom of the round feels, and how the receivers, and Harry in particular, don't stand out as certain difference-makers.
Wide receiver in top 15 picks?: The "yes" is at +120, with the "no" at -160. This really feels like a bet on what Washington is going to do. They have the 15th pick, and it doesn't feel like anyone before them is in the wide receiver market at this point. The Redskins need someone to catch passes for sure and could solve that here. But after Alex Smith's injury, they need someone to throw those passes, too. That is a challenge here, though. Murray, Haskins and Lock are likely to all be off the board by here - though if one is available that would make it hard for the Redskins to do anything else. To solve their problem, they might be in the Rosen market - that could fit. Daniel Jones is probably too much of a stretch in this spot. They could go for a receiver here and look for a QB later. Or they could trade down to find a better spot to get Jones. Or they could trade up to get one of the top three guys - though that feels less likely. Add it all up, and there is good reason why the no is solidly favored here. No value in this one.
Josh Allen top three pick?: The yes is at +140, with the no at -180. We can be fairly confident at this point that Murray is going first and Nick Bosa is going second - anything else would be a shock. The Jets have the third pick and would be looking for defensive front help above all else. And the most likely choices are Allen or Quinnen Williams. The odd thing here is that even when people tab Allen in mock drafts, they mention that Williams is the best player in the draft - whatever that means. The challenge is that a DT is not nearly as sexy as a pass rusher is, which works against Williams - the Jets don't play in the least challenging or judgmental market. As a contrast, Williams is at -110 as a yes here. I'd take Williams, but the yes here is priced well enough to be interesting.
Defensive players in top ten picks - o/u 6.5: The over is at +100, with the under at -140. We know that Murray is going first overall - and if not then then very soon after. That's one for the offense for sure. Jawaan Taylor is the top OT and could likely be a Top 10 pick because teams love linemen - though the group this year isn't as strong as some years, so that's no lock. And the Giants should pick a QB - though they may not. A QB could go somewhere else in the Top 10 other than the Giants, too - a team might not want to risk missing out on Haskins or Lock of they are available. Tight end T.J. Hockenson of Iowa is very likely to be a Top 10 pick, too. So, there is just one guy on offense who is just a lock but probably as many as four others who are in play. If four offensive guys are picked, there can't be seven defensive picks - that's some fancy math I just did. I like the over here.
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