Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad Pick, 06/21/2025 Predictions UFC Baku Odds

Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad

UFC Baku

Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan

Saturday, June 21, 2025

Muhammad Naimov will battle Bogdan Grad at UFC Baku on Saturday, June 21, 2025. The opening line has Naimov priced at -218 while Grad is coming in at +180.

Muhammad "Hillman" Naimov walks into the Octagon with a mark of 12-3-0. The 30-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 70". Bogdan "The Unleashed" Grad stands 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 15-2-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 70". In the category of significant strikes, Muhammad Naimov is connecting on 2.94 per minute and Bogdan Grad is connecting on 5.83 significant strikes per min. Naimov is landing 41% of the significant strikes he tries while Grad is connecting on 52%. In terms of defending themselves, "Hillman" allows 3.77 significant strikes per minute while "The Unleashed" allows 7.84. Naimov also deflects 44% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Grad thwarts 47% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

Regarding takedowns, Muhammad Naimov is the lesser skilled wrestler as he scores a takedown 1.85 times per 15 minutes. Naimov is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his tries and thwarting 66% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Grad is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 100% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Naimov is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.7 submissions per 3 rounds while Grad attempts 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes.

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The last time he fought, Muhammad Naimov faced Kaan Ofli and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Ofli ended up landing 57 of 97 total strikes attempted in that contest. Naimov walked away from this fight having landed 79 of 176 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Ofli ended up landing 31 of 66, which means his percentage was 46%. He finished the fight landing 5 of 30 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Naimov ended up landing 34% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 32 of 92. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 23 of 79 aimed at the head. 45% of the significant strikes connected on by Ofli and 68% of them connected on by Naimov were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Bogdan Grad, he went up against Lucas Alexander and ended up getting the victory via punches to the head from the mount position in round 2. Alexander ended up connecting on 85% of his significant strikes at distance and Grad connected on 19% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Grad landed 69% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 46 of 66. He landed 42 of 60 significant strikes to the head. Alexander ended up landing 34 of 52 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 19 of 37 to the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Alexander ended up landing 47 of 71 while Grad landed 59 of 86 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Seokhyeon Ko fights Oban Elliott. Ko steps into the cage with a mark of 11-2-0. The 31-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 71". Elliott measures 6'0" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 72". When it comes to grappling, Seokhyeon Ko is able to score a takedown 2.00 times per 15 minutes while Oban Elliott takes his opponents to the canvas 2.16 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Ko lands an average of 3.60 strikes/min and connecting on 51% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Oban Elliott, who connects on 49% of the strikes that he throws and lands 4.26 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when JunYong Park is set to square up in the Octagon against Ismail Naurdiev. Naurdiev has a career mark of 24-7-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Park stands in at 5'10" and will fight at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 73". Regarding wrestling, Ismail Naurdiev stops 72% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his attempts. Park is taking his opponents down on 47% of his tries and curbs 57% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Naurdiev is absorbing 1.52 strikes/min and he lands 3.41 per min. Park, moreover, absorbs 3.42 strikes/minute and is connecting on 4.77 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Muhammad Naimov (-218)

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