World Cup Betting Props: Group Exactas
by Trevor Whenham - 5/31/2010

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World Cup Group Exacta betting - where soccer  meets horse racing. Like in horse racing, these exacta bets require you to pick  the teams that are going to finish first or second in each group, and to pick  them in the correct order. It should, in theory, be quite a bit easier to hit them in the World Cup, though - there are  only four teams in a group, and you'll almost never get to bet an exacta with  just four horses in a race. The payouts will obviously be lower as a result,  but there are still some nice payouts possible with these bets. Here's a quick  look at how each of the groups breaks down (odds are from Bodog):
  
  Group  A - This is perhaps the most wide open of all of the groups, and the  prices reflect it. The favored combination - France over Mexico - pays off much  higher than other groups at 4/1. All three of the most favored combinations  have France on top. If, like me, you don't have any faith in France this year  then that means there is a chance at real value. You could have Mexico over  France at 7/1. I'd also be tempted to take a shot at seeing France shut out  entirely, and take Mexico over Uruguay at 14/1. The host teams always seem to  find a way to advance out of the first round. If you believe that South Africa  is going to continue that trend then you can get some big prices. South Africa  over Uruguay offers the highest price at 28/1.
  
  Group  B - Argentina is the clear and convincing class of this group, and the  prices show that. They are favored with Nigeria in second at 2/1. Any result  without  Argentina on top would be a surprise, but anything is possible - especially  with the crazy and volatile Diego Maradona coaching the Argentinians. If you  like them in second instead of first then you can get much better prices -  Nigeria over Argentina pays 13/2, and Greece over Argentina would pay 9/1. If  there's an upset then the payoffs could be astronomical - South Korea and  Greece could combine to pay 66/1.
  
  Group  C - England and the U.S. are the two teams that are getting the most  press in this group, with England seen as the better team by most. That  combination is understandably favored at 3/2, with the reverse paying 6/1. The  intriguing wild card in this group in my eyes is Slovenia. They are an under-appreciated  team that has a good opportunity to pull off a surprise or two. The most  attractive price that jumps out with them is Slovenia over England at 14/1.
  
  Group  D - Germany is the clear favorite here, with Serbia the lukewarm second  choice from a group of teams that are hard to distinguish between. The favored  combination pays 11/4, so you could bet all three combinations with Germany on  top and still wind up ahead - though I'm not sure why you would want to. Ghana  suffered a massive hit this week when best player Michael Essien was ruled out  of the tournament due to injuries, so they aren't as attractive in these bets  as they were. Australia's not easy to love, either, so Serbia almost stands out  by default.
  
  Group  E - Netherlands is the clear favorite here, and Japan is a disaster.  That leaves Cameroon and Denmark, and there's not much to choose from between  the two. Netherlands over each of those two teams pays off at 14/5. Betting  Netherlands to win the group outright is paying just -162 right now. That means  that you could secure a much better payoff while assuming not much more risk by  betting the exacta instead of the outright win here. This is the most useful  example of the worth of this bet yet.
  
  Group  F - This one should be a two-horse race if the teams stick to form.  Italy is the clear favorite, though they could struggle to score. Paraguay  could be the second best, but Italy should be able to beat them. Slovakia has  issues, and New Zealand should just be happy to be there. Italy over Paraguay  pays 3/2, and the reverse pays 4/1 so you could hedge those two together pretty  nicely if you felt like it.
  
  Group  G - The World Cup Group of Death is the hardest group to call, and the prices reflect that. North Korea  is likely not a factor, and their odds reflect that - five of the six  combinations involving them are at 200/1 or higher. That leaves three teams,  but the issue is that all three have the potential to win the group if they  play their best. If you believe like I do that Brazil is the best team in the  tournament then you won't want to leave them out entirely, but the prices are low  enough - they are favored over Ivory Coast and Portugal at identical 9/4 prices  - that you can't afford to play enough combinations to make this one  attractive. With a tough group like this you either have to take a stand on a  particular opinion or pass it all together.
  
  Group  H - If Spain doesn't win this group then something is really, really wrong. No team was  given a better draw than the tournament favorites, and they likely don't even  have to be in top form to come out on top of this group. Chile is favored to  come in second, with the combination at 5/4. Switzerland isn't far behind at  11/4. What makes this group interesting, though, is the possibility that Honduras  could get the job done enough to finish second. They are the worst of the four  teams, but they aren't hopeless like New Zealand or North Korea, so it could  happen. Spain over Honduras pays a nice 10/1. 
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