College Football Picks: Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 11/9/2010
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Bowling Green Falcons (+2.5, 50)
For the second night in a row, the Mid-American Conference has the college football world all to itself on Wednesday night. I’d like to say this Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green matchup has equal value to Tuesday night’s Toledo-Northern Illinois game, but that just wouldn’t be true.
That’s not to say this game means nothing. BGSU is just playing out the string at 2-7 overall and 1-4 in the MAC, but the RedHawks still are in contention for the East Division title at 4-1 in the conference (5-4 overall). If Miami can win this game and then at Akron next week the season finale against Temple could be for a spot in the conference title game.
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Miami has alternated wins and losses in the past six games. Last time out, on Oct. 30, it beat Buffalo 21-9 behind 231 yards passing and two touchdowns from QB Zac Dysert. Miami, which has won its past two on the road, needs just one more win to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2005.
The Falcons had lost five in a row before surprising Central Michigan, 17-14, on Oct. 30 thanks to a one-yard touchdown run by Jordan Hopgood with 21 seconds remaining.
Miami leads the all-time series with Bowling Green 41-20-5, including 19-9-4 on the road. It has won nine of the past 11 meetings but did lose, 35-14, last year. But it has won five straight at Doyt Perry Stadium.
BGSU receiver Kamar Jorden certainly will be a focus of the Miami defense. Jordan has 76 catches in the first nine games; his average of 8.44 receptions per game leads the MAC and is third nationally. His 825 yards receiving are good for 91.67 yards per game, which is 14th nationally.
Falcons QB Matt Schilz has completed 163-of-270 passes for 1,546 yards and five touchdowns. Leading that last-second win against CMU was the first fourth quarter comeback of his career. The ground game is led by Willie Geter, who has 566 yards and four touchdowns on the season. But that unit ranks last in the MAC and nationally at 62.3 yards per game.
Defensively, the Falcons are allowing 33.9 points and 425.3 yards per game, ranking 11th and 10th in the conference. BGSU is second in the conference with 25 takeaways.
Miami WR Nick Harwell has been on a roll of his own with 33 catches for 475 yards over the past four games. He only had two catches before this recent run. Dysert has 2,185 passing yards in 2010, including 320.7 per game over the course of the last three games. There’s only one team worse in the nation this season than Miami on the ground (62.8 ypg) and that’s Bowling Green.
On defense, five of Miami’s nine opponents have been held to less than 100 yards rushing – including the Florida Gators. Miami’s defense has caused 20 turnovers, which is tied for 11th in the country.
BGSU coach Dave Clawson says he expects safety Keith Morgan to return this week; Morgan did not play at Central Michigan after suffering a concussion the previous week. Clawson also said junior center Ben Bojicic has been practicing but remains questionable. Cornerback Cameron Truss also remains questionable.
Miami is expecting left offensive tackle Matt Kennedy, who has missed five starts with an ankle injury, and defensive end Mwanza Wamulumba, who has been out four weeks with a sprained ankle, both to return. Safety Dante Taylor, who saw action in six of Miami’s first seven games, has missed the last two due to injury and also should play. Linebacker Ryan Kennedy, one of the top tacklers in the Mid-American Conference after four games, hasn’t played since and is questionable.
Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green Betting Trends
With a 5-4 record, Miami now has four more victories than it recorded in all of 2009 (1-11). That ties Maryland for the best improvement in the country so far this season.
Miami is 2-8 ATS against the college football odds in its past 10 games as a favorite.
BGSU is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 in November.
The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green College Football Picks and Predictions
Miami has something to play for and BGSU doesn’t. Plus look at the series history. I’m rather shocked the line is so low. Take the RedHawks and the ‘over’ because both teams can’t run and will be throwing all night.
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