College Football Picks: Ohio State at Iowa Odds and Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 11/20/2010
The Big Ten doesn’t have a conference championship game. But this week’s Ohio State-Iowa showdown is about as close to one as we are going to get.
The Hawkeyes host the Buckeyes at 3:30 p.m. this Saturday in Ames. Barring something completely unforeseen, No. 20 Iowa is out of the running for the conference title. However, they still have a say in who will win this league when they take their shot at No. 7 Ohio State.
Both teams are coming off emotional situations last week. Ohio State fell behind, 14-3, against Penn State before ripping off 35 straight points to bury one of their main rivals. Iowa lost a tough one on the road against Northwestern, blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead and giving up the losing score with less than two minutes to play.
This is definitely a revenge situation for Iowa. They lost a heartbreaker in overtime last year, 27-24, in Columbus, but they had to play that game without starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. That game helped earn the Buckeyes a fifth straight Big Ten title and a win this weekend could pave the way for No. 6.
But Iowa is no joke on its own turf. They are 45-26-2 ATS at home under Kirk Ferentz and 15-5 ATS after a loss. This is only Ohio State’s fourth road game of the season and the only quality team that they played away from home – Wisconsin – hammered the Buckeyes from start to finish.
This is the final home game of the season for Iowa, and the last game in Ames for a very decorated senior class. With Ohio State playing for a conference title and a BCS bowl game there should be no shortage of emotion in this one.
Ohio State at Iowa Football Betting Odds
Not surprisingly, Ohio State is a slim favorite in this one, according to college football odds. They opened at -3.5 and it was quickly bet down to -3.0. The total is set at 48.0 and has held firm. The Buckeyes are catching 70 percent of the action in this one, as is to be expected, but the lines have held firm.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Trends
Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Hawkeyes are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog.
Hawkeyes are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a S.U. loss.
Hawkeyes are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
Buckeyes are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games.
Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite.
Buckeyes are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 conference games.
Buckeyes are 47-20 ATS in their last 67 games overall.
Buckeyes are 42-17 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite.
Ohio State at Iowa College Football Picks and Predictions
I don’t have a strong opinion on the side in this one, but I’d have to say that I lean on the home team. Iowa has the home crowd and a huge motivational edge (revenge). But if Iowa can lose to Northwestern then they can get beat by an Ohio State team that has excellent in these situations over the years.
When you look at all the ATS success Ohio State has had in league play, I don’t know how anyone could confidently lay cash down against them.
However, I do think there is some value on the total here. Both of these teams bang heads and both rely on dominating defenses. The last two years these teams have combined to top 50 points. But in the four games prior to that these clubs didn’t crack 48 points one time. That means that they are just 2-4 against this week’s number since 2000.
I think this one will be an old-fashioned Big Ten brawl and both yards and points should be at a premium. Play the ‘under’ here.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional NFL and college football handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has brought in over $15,000 in overall profit in all sports over the last three-plus months. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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