Super Bowl Betting Advice and Tips: Quarter Lines Betting
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 2/2/2011
In the Super Bowl, one quarter is bigger, more scrutinized, and heck, almost as long as some regular season games. So why not wager on it?
There are quarter lines for all NFL games, but when Super Bowl Sunday rolls around these Super Bowl quarter lines get plenty of attention. What happens in each individual quarter is a big deal during the big game, and not just because of Super Bowl Squares pools that pay out after each quarter.
In football there is a point spread, a moneyline and a total for each individual quarter. Each quarter is its own separate entity. Any wager a bettor places on a quarter line, whether it be the first, second, third or fourth quarter, only pertains to what happens in that quarter. Any points scored before that quarter or after that quarter has nothing to do with the quarter line.
All quarter lines go off the board once the game starts. You cannot bet on the fourth quarter line after the game has started. For Super Bowl XLV all the quarter lines are Green Bay -.5 and Pittsburgh +.5. So, for example, if you were to bet the Steelers in the third quarter and that quarter was scoreless, you would win your wager. Rather than adjusting the point spread for each quarter for this game, the oddsmakers have only adjusted the juice. For example, in the first quarter Pittsburgh is +.5 and -140 meaning a $140 wager returns $100 while Green Bay is -.5 and +120 meaning a $100 wager returns $120.
Betting on the moneyline of each quarter is another option. For the first quarter the Pittsburgh moneyline is +115 while Green Bay is -135. The moneylines are relatively consistent throughout the game.
You can also bet on individual totals during the Super Bowl. The first quarter (9.5), second quarter (14), third quarter (9.5) and fourth quarter (13) all have individual “over/unders” that only pertain to that specific quarter. The game can be a scoreless tie, but if the Packers score 14 fourth-quarter points, then the fourth quarter will go “over.”
Bettors should not use NFL quarter lines to get more action on your team. If you think the Steelers are going to cover you should wager on the Steelers game line, not take them in each of the four quarters. In the conference championship games both Green Bay and Pittsburgh only went 2-2 ATS in their quarter lines. Green Bay and Pittsburgh won both their first half lines in their respective conference championship games only to lose the third and fourth quarter lines to the Bears and Jets.
The best way to attack NFL quarter lines, as far as my advice and tips are concerned, is by pinpointing certain situations you are confident in. There is nothing more frustrating than betting an “under” and watching the defense dominate for the first half only to see a couple fluke plays late in the game push the game “over.” By betting quarter lines you can take “under” 9.5 points in the first quarter if you think Pittsburgh and Green Bay are going to come out hesitant. There are less variables and intangibles in just wagering on the first quarter line rather than having to rely on defense for all four quarters to keep a game “under.”
Considering recent Super Bowl past, the first quarter “under” bet appears to be the safest one to make. One of the most consistent trends in Super Bowl history is the defensive dominance in the first quarter. Whether it’s the play of the defense or offensive jitters on sport’s biggest stage, points have been extremely rare in the first quarter of the Super Bowl. Nine of the past 11 Super Bowl first quarters have stayed “under” the first quarter total. The last 11 Super Bowl first quarters have averaged 5.27 points.
Looking at recent trends from Super Bowl history in terms of the game line, the half a point in question with each of the quarter lines in this year’s Super Bowl could end up being huge. With the Steelers at +.5, any quarter that ends with both teams scoring the same amount of points in those 15 minutes would be a winning wager for bettors who take the Steelers on any of the quarter lines.
Eight quarters in the last seven Super Bowls have ended in a tie. That is eight out of a possible 28 quarters, or 29 percent of the quarters in the past seven Super Bowls to end in a tie. If you feel confident in Green Bay it may be smart to pay the extra juice and lay odds from -120 to -135 to take Green Bay on the moneyline for the quarter rather than getting odds of +115 to +135 to lay the half a point.
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