This Week in College Football Betting by the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 10/11/2012
It was upset week in college football last weekend. The college football rankings were turned upside down as many top teams were tripped up. Florida State’s collapse in Raleigh was the biggest stunner of the weekend. Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles are likely out of the national title picture now, so they’ll have to fight for an ACC title. There are some new teams near the top of the rankings, and many of them will be tested right away.
The annual tradition of underrating Bill Snyder’s Kansas State football team has come to fruition again this year. The Wildcats are always off everyone’s radar, and yet they always find a way to win a ton of games and play great fundamental football. Maybe that Snyder guy is just one heck of a football coach?
Less than two years removed from winning a BCS Championship, Gene Chizik is on the hot seat at Auburn. After losing to John L. Smith and the Arkansas Razorbacks at home, you can hardly blame fans for being more than a little upset. Iowa State fans were less than thrilled with how Chizik left the program. In the end, it seems Iowa State should be happy it was able to get a coach like Paul Rhoads. Rhoads has his Cyclones into the Top 25 this week.
The Red River Rivalry gets things kicked off this weekend. South Carolina and LSU square off under the lights in Baton Rouge this Saturday night. It’s another great weekend of college football action. Let’s take a look at some unique numbers to consider when betting on college football this week.
1- Texas Tech has the nation’s No. 1 pass defense so far this year. It’s obvious that this team has improved a great deal on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be facing Geno Smith and the West Virginia Mountaineers high-powered offense this weekend. Does anyone seriously think they’ll still be on top of the pass defense rankings next week? I highly doubt it.
1- Only one team in the nation is winless ATS so far this year. Virginia is that lonely team. The Cavaliers lost 42-17 at Duke last weekend as a one-point favorite.
3- The number of teams in the Top 5 that lost last weekend. LSU, Georgia, and Florida State all lost. LSU and Florida State lost close contests, while Georgia was blasted by South Carolina. LSU stayed in the Top 10, while Georgia and Florida State fell out of the Top 10.
6- Fresno State’s Phillip Thomas has become the ultimate ballhawk so far this year. Thomas leads the nation with six interceptions. Right now, he is averaging one interception per game. If he keeps it up, his name will be in the record books.
13- The number of touchdown receptions Stedman Bailey has through five games this year. That’s one heck of a season for the average receiver. It must be nice being a receiver in Dana Holgorsen’s system with Geno Smith as the quarterback!
40- The posted total for this week’s Iowa vs. Michigan State game in East Lansing. It’s by far the lowest total on the board this week. I don’t know if this says more about the teams’ defenses or their lack of offense.
40.5- The opening number on the Fordham vs. Cincinnati game this weekend. The Bearcats are a decent team, but the fact that they are favored by 40.5 points tells you more about Fordham than Cincinnati. Why are the Bearcats bothering to have a midseason nonconference game against Fordham anyway?
50.5- The percentage of games that have gone “over” the posted total so far this season. In all, 144 games have finished over the posted total, while 141 games have finished “under” the posted total. The oddsmakers are obviously being pretty sharp with their college football totals lines in 2012.
116- Auburn’s offense is ranked 116th in the nation. The Tigers are just ahead of South Alabama and just behind Temple in total offense. Where’s Cam Newton at when you really need him? Or maybe they could try to get Gus Malzahn to come back? Auburn is averaging 15.4 points per game this year.
9,600- The amount of dollars you would win on a two-team, $10 moneyline parlay bet on Boston College and Kansas at 5Dimes. It’s a fun number to look at, but it isn’t worth your time or money. Florida State and Oklahoma State are two ticked-off teams, and Boston College and Kansas are merely speed bumps in the road. Look out below!
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