Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 6
by Aaron Smith - 10/3/2012
Week 6 of the college football season is here. It’s time for another edition of the mid-major betting report. This report will focus on the Ohio Bobcats all season. The Ohio Bobcats are 5-0, but they haven’t cracked the top 25 yet. The Bobcats actually slid a few spots in the polls after last week’s much-closer-than-expected win. In order to become an expert on this team, I’m following players on Twitter; Ohio beat writers, and team press conferences all for important information. The goal of this report is to show how specialization is a profitable betting strategy.
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Last year’s mid-major betting report, which followed the Rice Owls, made $100 unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. At the end of each weekly article this season, I will make a selection for that weekend’s Ohio Bobcats game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
The Ohio Bobcats entered last weekend’s game at Massachusetts as 24-point road favorites. Ohio emerged a 37-34 winner after a more difficult game than almost anyone could have expected. UMass was beaten 45-0 earlier this year by the lowly Indiana Hoosiers, but the Minutemen were ready for last week’s contest, and they almost pulled off the big upset. UMass outgained Ohio 511 yards to 503. UMass quarterback Mike Wegzyn threw for 373 yards and four touchdowns. He exploited an Ohio secondary that has really been slowed by injury over the last couple weeks.
What worked well for the Bobcats? Beau Blankenship ran the ball 43 times for 269 rushing yards. Blankenship proved he can be a workhorse and lead this team to victory. Tyler Tettleton didn’t play two weeks ago, but he played pretty well last weekend. He wasn’t quite as dynamic as normal, but he still threw two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bobcats offense really didn’t have any trouble moving the ball, but it was the defense’s difficulty getting stops that has to worry the coaching staff. In hindsight, my Ohio -24 selection for last week was a very bad one. I simply didn’t see UMass having the kind of offensive explosion they had.
Notes of Interest
--UMass came into last weekend’s game without a passing touchdown all year, so that made their amazing success against the Ohio secondary even more surprising. Travis Carrie and Jamil Shaw, two key members of the Bobcats secondary, are expected to miss the rest of the season with injuries. The MAC has some very good quarterbacks. Can Ohio patch up the secondary through the rest of this season?
--In this week’s press conference, Tyler Tettleton’s injury was a topic that came up a couple times. Coach Frank Solich said, “We were ready to take him out at the first sign of it bothering him. So, right now, I believe he is over it.” Apparently, the coaching staff told Tettleton to avoid taking hits last weekend, but they feel far more confident in his status this weekend.
--The Buffalo Bulls will be this week’s opponent for Ohio. Buffalo actually beat Ohio, 38-37, as home underdogs last season. The Bulls threw for 343 yards in that game. Buffalo has turned into much more of a running team this year with star running back Branden Oliver. Solich said this week that getting revenge for last year’s game isn’t a high priority for the team. He also said that losing the turnover battle and the red zone battle last year are two important things that the Bobcats must turn around this time.
--Buffalo is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
--Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
--The “over” is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
Buffalo vs. Ohio College Football Odds
Bookmaker listed Ohio as a 15.5-point favorite at the open on Sunday evening. The money has consistently come in on the underdog here. Currently, Ohio is favored by 14 points at all the major books. The posted total opened at 56.5 points, and it hasn’t budged since the open.
Buffalo vs. Ohio College Football Picks
The Bulls beat the Bobcats, 38-37, last year. I expect the Bobcats to win this one and get to 6-0, but the spread is a very difficult call. Oliver is expected to play for Buffalo, and he gives them a very talented running back. Ohio’s clear weakness at this point is their secondary. On the other side, Buffalo struggles in a big way against the run. It sounds like Ryan Boykin will be back this week for the Bobcats, so they’ll have a change-of-pace runner to help out Blankenship.
The Bulls don’t have enough playmakers on defense to shut down the Bobcats, but Buffalo can probably score on a dinged up Bobcats defense as well. I think the best way to play this one is the over. The selection for this week is over 56.5 points for two units.
Pick: #391- Take Buffalo/Ohio over 56.5 for 2 Units (Saturday, 12:00 pm. EST)
Season Results: 2 Wins 2 Losses= -0.2 Units ($20 Loss)
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