American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 10/22/2013
The Central Florida Knights completely upset the apple cart this past Friday night in the chase to the first ever American Athletic Conference title by stunning then-No. 8 Louisville 38-35 on a last-second score as 14-point underdogs on the road. My AAC pick of the week missed the mark with Temple beating Army, but I am still up eight units on the year for a profit of $710 with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. My goal is to deliver a $1000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 9 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Saturday, Oct. 26
No. 20 Louisville Cardinals (-19.5) vs. South Florida Bulls
Total Line: OFF
The fall from grace was swift for the Cardinals in the latest rankings after last Friday’s stunning loss as a usually-stout defense was torched for 38 points. This unit is still ranked second in the nation in points allowed in giving-up an average of 11.7 points a game. The loss dropped Louisville to 6-1 straight up and 3-4 against the spread.
South Florida followed up an impressive 26-20 victory over Cincinnati as a 10.5-point home underdog with last week’s 13-10 victory over Connecticut as a four-point underdog on the road. The Bulls are now 2-4 SU on the year and 3-3 ATS. They have been able to tighten things up on defense after allowing an average of 37.8 points in their first four games.
Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 23 Central Florida Knights (-22.5)
Total Line: 49.5
It has been a rough go of it since opening day for the Huskies with six-straight losses on the year. This past Saturday they lost to Cincinnati 41-16 as 14.5-point road underdogs to fall to 1-5 ATS. Connecticut’s only claim to fame this season was a 24-21 loss to Michigan in Week 4 as an 18.5-point underdog at home.
UCF is now in the driver’s seat in the AAC title chase with a perfect 2-0 record in conference play as part of an overall record of 5-1 both SU and ATS. The Knights are averaging 32.8 points a game on offense while holding their opponents to just 19.7 points a game on defense. While they did not necessarily shut Louisville down last Friday night, the Knights made plays when they needed to the most.
Temple Owls vs. SMU Mustangs (-4)
Total Line: 59
Temple got off the schneid with last week’s 33-14 victory over the Black Nights as a one-point home underdog, but it is just a shade better than UConn at 1-6 SU on the year. The Owls are 4-3 ATS and have now covered in their last three outings. They still remain one of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation with an average of 18.9 points a game, so it is little wonder that the total has stayed “under” in five of their seven games.
SMU improved to 2-4 SU and ATS overall and 1-1 in conference play with this past Saturday’s 34-29 victory over Memphis as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Mustangs are averaging a respectable 28.3 points a game behind a passing attack that is ranked third in the country in yards per game (354.5). Unfortunately, they are strapped with a defense that is allowing an average of 40.8 points a game.
AAC Pick of the Week
Houston Cougars vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-8)
Total Line: 62
Houston’s five-game winning streak to start the season came to an abrupt end with last week’s 47-46 loss to BYU, but it still covered as a 10-point underdog at home. The Cougars are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season behind a high-powered offensive attack that is averaging 40.8 points a game. John O’Korn has thrown for 1,494 yards and 14 touchdowns in relief of David Piland, who is done for the season with a concussion.
The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye after losing to Louisville 24-10 on Oct. 10 as 19.5-point road underdogs. They are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the year, and the total has gone “over” in two of their last three games. Rutgers is averaging 35 points a game, but the big question in this matchup is can its defense do enough to slow Houston down. It gave up 52 points to SMU in a Week 7 overtime win and 52 points to Fresno State on opening day in an overtime loss. I actually like the Cougars SU in this contest, so the eight points are a gift.
4-Unit Play Take Houston (+8) over Rutgers (Saturday, Oct. 26, noon)
Year to Date Record: 5-3 (+ 8 units +$710)
Got free picks? Doc’s does. And for new clients we would like to offer you $60 in free member’s college football picks from Doc’s Sports Advisory Board of college football handicapping experts. Click here to sign up today. We never require a credit card for this offer, and you will never have to deal with a salesman.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- Bowl Game Schedule - College Football Bowl Schedules for 2019-2020
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Big Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Championship Week Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Dec. 12-13
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 14-15