American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 10/28/2013
It has become a three-way race to the first ever American Athletic Conference crown between No. 19 Louisville, No. 23 Central Florida and the surprising Houston Cougars. I had the Cougars as my AAC pick of the week, and they did not disappoint in a 49-14 romp over Rutgers as eight-point road underdogs. This 4-Unit pick raised my year to date total to +12 units with the use of Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System for a current profit of $1,110 on a $100/per unit wager. My goal is to deliver well over $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 10 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Wednesday, Oct. 30
Cincinnati Bearcats (-3) vs. Memphis Tigers
Total Line: 46
Things started out as a roller-coaster ride for the Bearcats this year with a crushing 42-7 win over Purdue to start the season followed by a crushing 45-17 loss to Illinois in the nonconference portion of their schedule. However, they are another team in the AAC title hunt with a 2-1 straight up start in conference play. They are 5-2 SU overall but just 3-4 against the spread. Cincinnati still has one of the top defenses in the nation that is allowing an average of just 17.6 points a game.
Memphis is coming off a bye week after losing to SMU, 34-29, on Oct. 19 as a 3.5-point home favorite. The loss dropped the Tigers to 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) overall and 0-3 SU in AAC play. They are ranked 108th in Division IA in scoring with an average of 20.2 points a game behind an offense that has struggled to move the ball through the air and on the ground. This unit is averaging 359.6 yards of total offense a game.
Thursday, Oct. 31
South Florida Bulls vs. Houston Cougars (-17)
Total Line: 56.5
The Bulls won their first two AAC games, including a stunning 26-20 victory over Cincinnati as 10.5-point home underdogs. This past Saturday they lost to Louisville 34-3 as 20-point underdogs at home to fall to 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) on the year. The total has stayed “under” in five of the seven games behind an offense that is managing just 14.3 points a game.
Houston’s only setback this season against six wins was a 47-46 loss to BYU on Oct. 19 as a 10-point home underdog. The Cougars are a perfect 7-0 ATS, and the total has gone “over” in four of those games. They are ranked 17th in the nation in passing behind quarterback John O’Korn, who has taken over the reins for an injured David Piland. Houston is averaging 42 points a game while holding its opponents to an average of 22.3 points a game.
AAC Pick of the Week
Temple Owls vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-14.5)
Total Line: OFF
Earlier in the season, I went against the Owls in what turned out to be their only SU win of the season. They followed up that 33-14 win over Army as one-point home underdogs with a 59-49 loss to SMU this past Saturday as 14-point underdogs on the road. Temple remains one of the weakest teams in the AAC at 1-7 SU, but it is 5-3 ATS this season, including a perfect 4-0 record ATS in its last four games. The biggest reason that the Owls have remained competitive lately is an offense that has scored a total of 102 points in its last three games.
Rutgers’ loss to Houston this past Saturday dropped it to 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) overall and 1-2 SU in conference play. This team still has a well-balanced offense that is averaging close to 400 yards and 32 points a game, but its defense has fallen all the way to 83rd in the nation by allowing an average of 30.1 points a game. The best play in this contest could actually be the over on the total line, but look for Temple to keep things close enough to cover with the two-touchdown spread.
3-Unit Play Take Temple (+14.5) over Rutgers (Saturday, Nov. 2, 12 p.m.)
Year to Date Record: 6-3 (+ 12 units +$1110)
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