Super Bowl Betting Predictions: 2013 Cross-Sport Props and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 2/1/2013
Hi, my name is Alan Matthews and I’m a Super Bowl cross-sport propaholic. I am indeed totally addicted to these types of props, and I wish sites would have them weekly on other events. Jimmie Johnson laps led at Daytona against the total points scored by LeBron James. Knockdowns in a Manny Pacquiao fight against goals for Sidney Crosby against the Canadiens. You get the drill. The combinations are endless. But I also know it takes plenty of research and the like, so it’s not going to happen.
With that said, I give you my final Super Bowl XLVII preview story with a look at several of these props offered by Sportsbook.ag. I’ll break them down by the sport that the Ravens and 49ers are competing against. All events are on Super Bowl Sunday and all props are priced at -115 on each side unless noted.
Ray Rice rushing yards +5.5 against Lee Westwood’s final-round score of the European Tour’s Omega Dubai Desert Classic. I had projected Rice to have 95 yards rushing, so it seems pretty obvious that I would take Rice here because Westwood won’t be shooting 101.
Torrey Smith’s receiving yards +2.5 against Sergio Garcia’s final-round score in Dubai. It’s tough to get a gauge on Smith because he has big-play potential (season-high seven catches for 144 yards against San Diego on Nov. 25) but is probably more likely to be a minor factor. He had 10 games with less than 50 yards receiving this season. Smith has been involved in the past two games, with 98 yards (and two scores) against Denver and 69 yards against the Patriots. Garcia shot a first-round 68 in Dubai (thus should make the cut) and isn’t likely to shoot worse than a 72. I would take Sergio at -2.5.
Colin Kaepernick’s rushing yards +19.5 against Jason Dufner’s final-round score at the PGA Tour’s Waste Management Open. Dufner was one of the favorites in Phoenix and opened with a 3-under 68. TPC Scottsdale is a pretty easy course, as evidenced by Phil Mickelson’s 60 on Thursday that easily could have been a record 58 (he barely missed birdie putts on No. 17 and 18). Dufner’s scoring average last year was 69.5. I liked Kaepernick “under” the 50.5-yard rushing total earlier this week set at Bovada, so I would recommend Dufner here.
Joe Flacco touchdowns and interceptions +0.5 against the number of goals scored in the English Premier League Tottenham-West Brom match. I projected Flacco with two TDs and a pick against the Niners. Tottenham Hotspur is No. 6 in the EPL with 41 goals in 24 games, while West Bromwich Albion has 34. The last time these two played it was 1-1. Tottenham, the far superior side, hasn’t been involved in an EPL match with more than three total goals since beating Reading 3-1 on New Year’s Day. Take Flacco.
Ravens + 49ers field goals -0.5 against total goals between Liverpool and defending EPL champion Manchester City. Liverpool is No. 5 in the EPL with 42 goals, three behind No. 4 Man City. When those two met early in the EPL season it finished 2-2. The Ravens have just two field goals in three playoff games, but the Niners will be the best defense they have seen, and, thus, I believe that leads to more field-goal attempts. And Justin Tucker is excellent. San Francisco’s David Akers is a bit shaky, leading the NFL in misses this season, and is 1-for-2 in the playoffs. The Ravens also have the best defense the Niners will see in these playoffs. I can’t see more than three goals in the soccer match but definitely could see four field goals in the Super Bowl. So that’s the pick.
Sidney Crosby points at “pick’em” against Washington vs. Kaepernick’s touchdown passes. Crosby has been pointless in two games this season entering Thursday but has two multiple-point games. If this were goals, I would take Kaepernick. But at points, I like Crosby as I think Kaepernick throws just one TD.
Alexander Ovechkin points vs. Pittsburgh at -0.5 (even) against Baltimore’s rushing touchdowns (-130 favorite at +0.5). Ovechkin continues to look very average and has just two points all season entering Thursday. I love the rushing touchdowns here because I’m confident the Ravens get at least one.
Paul Pierce points at +5 against the Clippers vs. total Baltimore points. Pierce is averaging 18.7 points per game but just 15.8 in the past five. He’s going to have to pick it up with Rajon Rondo out. Pierce was held to 12 when the Celtics played at the Clippers in late December. I could see the Ravens getting 21 and probably no more than 24. So can Pierce get at least 20? He has just once in the past nine games. I would take Baltimore.
Kevin Garnett points plus rebounds at -0.5 against Flacco’s completions. I thought Flacco would complete 20 passes. Garnett averages 14.9 points and 7.3 rebounds. His offensive game will struggle without Rondo, but he still is capable of 12-14 rebounds a game. KG had 16 points and four boards in the first meeting with L.A., but I could see 13 points and 10 rebounds in this one. So take him.
Blake Griffin’s points plus rebounds at -3 against Boston vs. 49ers points. Griffin averages 18.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, so if he’s simply on his average that means the Niners would have to score 25 points to merit taking them. Griffin has really picked up his scoring of late with Chris Paul out. It’s “iffy” if Paul plays Sunday. Griffin had 15 points and eight boards in the first meeting with Boston but only played 26 minutes because the Clips were so far ahead. I lean toward Griffin here as I could see 25 points and nine rebounds.
Kobe Bryant points at -0.5 against the Pistons (even) vs. 49ers points (-130 at +0.5). Kobe averages 28.1 points this season but just 16.5 in the past four as he has become the team’s point guard and is dishing the ball a ton. I love the Niners here.
Steve Nash assists +6.5 vs. the length of the first touchdown pass in the Super Bowl. With Kobe playing the point, Nash is averaging 3.5 assists in the past four. I expect the first TD pass to be at least 10 yards, so I would lean there.
Chris Bosh points at -0.5 against Toronto vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl for either Baltimore or San Francisco. I totally love Bosh here. He averages 17.5 ppg and just claimed he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so I think he backs it up. But most important, he will want to stick it to the Raptors fans who assuredly will boo Bosh’s every move for leaving the franchise a few years back. In Miami’s lone visit to Toronto last year, Bosh had 30.
Sportsbook.ag site offers several more props like these, as does Bovada, so I recommend taking a look. Enjoy the game.
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