College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 12/30/2014
It's time for Week 3 if the Schedule Spot Fade Plays report. Because of the lightened holiday schedule, there were only two plays last week. The Schedule Spot Fade Plays went 1-1 in week two. The loser was the play on Georgia Tech +6. The fade of Dayton didn't work out in that game. As expected, Georgia Tech did control the boards, but Dayton's guards lit it up from deep, and Georgia Tech wasn't able to convert from the outside at all. The fade of UAB at North Carolina worked out nicely. UAB was dominated from the start as North Carolina jumped to an early 15-2 lead. The Tar Heels defense ruled in this game, and North Carolina won by 58 to cover the 25-point spread.
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Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team using Doc's Sports Unit Betting System. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
The schedule is still a little bit light this week, but there's a lot more to pick from this week compared to last week. Let's take a look at this week's schedule spot fade plays.
Play #1- Play on Colorado (Fade UCLA) on Friday, January 2
The UCLA Bruins were beaten up badly by Kentucky in a game at a neutral site. They then played this past Sunday in their first road game of the year (in their 12th game) at Alabama. Alabama won by six points and covered the four-point spread. UCLA isn't the same team they have been in recent years. The Bruins have been hit hard by players leaving early, and Steve Alford has a very short bench. Tony Parker and Kevon Looney are good players down low, but both get into foul trouble on a regular basis and there is no depth behind them. Colorado is in a terrific spot here. The Buffaloes went to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic and were beaten by both George Washington and Hawaii. Now, the Buffaloes get to come home where they are a totally different team. Their home-court advantage is tremendous, and UCLA will be playing only their second road game of the year. Alabama isn't a particularly daunting place to play, so I don't see that as a game that prepares them well for this one. I think Colorado is the play here.
Play #2- Play on San Francisco (Fade BYU) on Saturday, January 3
BYU has a really tough schedule through the holidays. The majority of teams get a lot of time to rest over the period around Christmas and New Year's Day, but BYU has had a loaded schedule. The Cougars played last Saturday against Gonzaga in a draining 77-70 loss at home. They then play on Monday at home against Portland before playing on Thursday at Santa Clara. Finally, they come to San Francisco to take on the Dons. Rex Walters' team isn't terrific, but they are always competitive on their home court. San Francisco lost all three matchups with BYU last year, but none of those losses were by a margin of more than seven points. BYU comes into here with Tyler Haws (their leading scorer) playing on a gimpy ankle, and the heavy schedule isn't helpful in that regard. San Francisco has had this game circled for quite a while after losing all three meetings last year, and I think they catch the Cougars at the right time. I'll fade the Cougars and take the home underdog here.
Play #3- Play on Utah (Fade UCLA) on Sunday, January 4
Yes, I realize that I'm fading UCLA twice in the same article, but I see value here. As I talked about above, UCLA has an astonishing lack of depth, and games in Colorado and then Utah will make that problem very evident. Colorado's home gym is at a high altitude, which makes it tough for opponents who aren't accustomed to the elevation. The Bruins play Colorado at 10 p.m. ET on Friday night. It's a very quick turnaround for UCLA as they then must play Utah at Huntsman Center at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon. The Huntsman Center also sits at a relatively high elevation, so this is going to be extremely wearing on the Bruins. UCLA went from playing no road games to playing three straight on the road, including the final two in difficult venues at elevation. It's a lot to ask of the young Bruins to stay in this game. The Utes have a complete team that is fully capable of blowing this game wide open. I'll fade the Bruins for a second time in what I believe is a terrible spot for them.
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 3 Wins 2 Losses (+$80)
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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