College Football Betting Trends that Emerged in Week 2
by George Monroy - 9/9/2014
The second week of college football action was highlighted by a marquee Top 10 matchup between the No.3 Oregon Ducks and the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans. The matchup ended up in a rout as Oregon scored the last 28 points of the game and walked away with a 19-point victory. The magnitude of the win was immediately felt across the nation, and on Monday morning the Ducks bumped Alabama from the No. 2 spot in the rankings even though the Crimson Tide had a 41-point victory of their own.
The opening week of the college football season was all about the big schools not covering spreads; the second week of action, however, had an entirely different feel as the Top 10 schools dominated ATS-wise, and the biggest favorites on the board continued to cover. Let's take a closer look at the Week 2 trends that popped up.
Top 5 strikes back
The Top 5-ranked schools redeemed themselves in a big way during Week 2 by covering four of five spreads after managing to cover only one during the opening weekend of the season. Top-ranked Florida State, however, might be a concern to bettors as they failed to cover the spread for the second straight week and are 0-2 against 18-point and 52-point lines, respectively.
No. 1 Florida State : favored by 52, won by 25
No. 2 Alabama : favored by 40, won by 41
No. 3 Oregon : favored by 13.5, won by 19
No. 4 Oklahoma : favored by 24.5, won by 45
No. 5 Auburn : favored by 33, won by 46
Once we expand into the Top 10, the trend was the same as the top-ranked schools in the nation covered six of nine games played during Week 2 (No. 6 Georgia did not play). Overall, the Top 10 schools have produced a 10-9 ATS record to start the year. However, there have already been two matchups between Top 10 schools this season, and excluding those games (because one of those teams had to lose), the favorites in the Top 10 have gone 10-7 ATS.
30-point or more favorites continue to cover
Large 30-point-or-more favorites had another good ATS week and posted a 3-1 record, with Alabama, Auburn and Florida covering. The big favorites have produced a 6-3 ATS record over the first two weeks of college action and might be worth taking a look at heading into Week 3, even though giving up so many points can be stomach-turning.
Florida State : favored by 52, won by 25
Alabama : favored by 40, won by 41
Auburn : favored by 33, won by 46
Florida : favored by 38, won by 65
Week 3 of college action will feature six 30-point-or-more favorites, with Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M all massive favorites heading into Saturday's games.
Upsets in the Top 15
There were two upsets inside the Top 15 last weekend with former No.8 Ohio State losing outright to Virginia Tech by 14 points and former No.13 Stanford losing to USC late in the game. Outside of those loses, nearly every other team in the Top 15 won by double-digit margins.
Auburn on an ATS streak
One of the most interesting trends heading into Week 3 of the season is Auburn's 12-game ATS winning streak that dates all the way back to Week 4 of last season. The squad opened the streak as a 17-point underdog against LSU and covered a 33-point spread last weekend against San Jose State. Auburn has been favored in seven of those 12 matchups and even covered a 41-point spread against Western Carolina during Week 7 last year. The Tigers will be a 33-point favorite next week.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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