College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 13
by Aaron Smith - 11/18/2014
Week 13 of the college football mid-major betting report is here. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the top bettors in the world use. There are 128 FBS level teams in college football, so specialization is definitely relevant here.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference this season. Akron is a program that seems to be trending the right direction under Terry Bowden. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
This report is early this week, and it will be here early the next few weeks as well. Akron plays the rest of their regular season games on Tuesday night as part of the Mid-American Conference weeknight showcase games on ESPN and ESPN2.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
There is no nice way to describe Akron's loss to Buffalo last week. The Zips were beaten down in embarrassing fashion by a mediocre Buffalo Bulls team. Akron went into the game as a 3.5-point favorite, but they came away with a 55-24 drubbing at the hands of the Bulls. Akron's defense, which was once considered the most improved aspect of the team, gave up 536 yards and 55 points to a Buffalo offense that had scored a grand total of 28 points in their last two games. Buffalo had two 100-yard rushers in the game, and the Bulls rolled up 310 yards on the ground. Joe Licata completed 16 of his 21 passes for the Bulls. Buffalo controlled the ball for a little more than 36 minutes. Buffalo was a whopping 9 for 12 on third down conversion attempts.
Akron's offense wasn't much better. The Zips lost two fumbles and could muster only 229 yards of total offense. Akron struggled to get the running game going all night. The Zips had 30 rushes for a total of 68 yards. The Zips just couldn't find any consistency on offense.
Akron actually jumped out to a 7-0 lead in this one thanks to an interception returned for a touchdown, but it all went south from there. Last week's pick of 'under' 50.5 was a loser.
Notes of Interest
-Akron hosts UMass on Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET in a game that was originally scheduled to be televised on ESPNU, but has since been relegated to ESPN3 only. Akron's current four-game losing streak likely played a role in that decision by ESPN.
- Shadrach Abrokwah leads the UMass Minutemen in rushing yards so far this year with only 423 yards on the ground. On the other hand, Blake Frohnapfel has thrown for 3,345 yards and 23 touchdowns for the Minutemen. Frohnapfel transferred from Marshall and has given this offense a major boost this season. His passing yardage is good enough for second best in the nation. It's obvious what the Minutemen want to do, so Akron will need to be prepared for an aerial assault in this one.
-The late-breaking news is that Frohnapfel is a game-time decision for UMass due to a leg injury. If he is unable to go, it will be Austin Whipple who takes over at quarterback for UMass. Whipple isn't even close to the same caliber player, so this is a huge injury to watch.
-It's Senior Night for the Zips in this one, and the Zips have 26 seniors on their roster. The goal this class set out to meet at the beginning of the season was to break the program's bowl drought. The Zips haven't gone to a bowl game since 2005. They'll have to win each of their last two games to be bowl eligible this year.
-UMass is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games against a conference foe.
-The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record.
-Akron is 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
-The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.
-The 'over' is 5-0-1 in UMass' last six road games.
-The under is 22-7 in Akron's last 29 games.
UMass vs. Akron College Football Odds
This line was late opening, so there hasn't been much movement here. The Zips opened as a seven-point home favorite, and they are now set as a 6.5-point favorite at most books. The posted total is set at 47.5 points.
UMass vs. Akron College Football Picks
With so much uncertainty around this game, I'm going to pass on making a selection. Akron has appeared to be playing out the string in recent weeks, but they can still get to a bowl game with a couple wins to finish the season. UMass would likely be my play if I knew Frohnapfel was starting, but without him there is no way I can back the Minutemen. Sometimes it is wise to just lay off and look for a better spot in the future.
No Pick on This Week's Game
Season Results: 3 Wins 7 Losses ($-1,070)
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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