College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 7
by Aaron Smith - 10/8/2014
It's time for Week 7 of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the best bettors in the world use. Since there are so many teams in college football, specialization is particularly relevant in this area.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference in every way possible this season. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
After the tough nonconference schedule they played , Akron was able to get an easy victory in their conference opener last week against lowly Eastern Michigan. Akron was sloppy in the first half and led only 10-6 at the break. The Zips then pulled away by outscoring Eastern Michigan 21-0 in the second half. The Zips slow start makes sense, especially after the team beat Pittsburgh in the program's biggest win in a long time the previous week. Akron's ability to fix its mistakes and play much better in the second half is encouraging for the coaching staff as well as Zips fans.
The most important number from last week's game is the turnover margin. Akron had zero turnovers and Eastern Michigan had four. When you have a turnover margin of +4, you essentially assure yourself of winning the game. Akron finished with 522 total yards of offense. The Zips had four players with at least 35 rushing yards. L.T. Smith starred with ten receptions for 117 yards. Kyle Pohl was tremendous at quarterback, and the Zips were able to get Tommy Woodson some quality playing time as well.
The Zips defense was sharp last week, and that allowed last week's 2-Unit play on the 'under' to cash in comfortably.
Notes of Interest
-Akron's coaching staff was pleased overall with the performance of the team last game, but there was one area that the coaches were very upset about and that was penalties. Akron was whistled for 15 penalties for 124 yards last week. That is a major point of emphasis in practice this week.
-Jatavis Brown was named MAC Defensive Player of the Week following the team's win at Pittsburgh, and he didn't let down his play a bit last weekend against Eastern Michigan. Brown led the team with 14 tackles in the win over the Eagles.
-Akron is now ranked No. 11 in the nation in turnover margin at +1.2 turnovers per game in 2014. The Zips are also No. 6 in the nation in red zone defense. Punter Zach Paul is ninth in the nation in yards per punt, averaging 45.6 yards per kick.
-The Zips opponent this weekend is Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks snapped a 21-game losing streak with their 42-41 win over UMass last week. Miami trailed 41-14 in that game before scoring the final 28 points of the game. Miami's last road win was their 56-49 win at Akron in 2012.
-Miami is 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 road games.
-The Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.
-Akron is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
-The under is 9-4 in Miami's last 13 road games.
-The under is 19-7 in Akron's last 26 games overall.
-The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Akron College Football Odds
The odds have been remarkably steady all week in this contest. Akron was originally a 13.5-point favorite here, and the Zips are now a two-touchdown favorite at home. The posted total opened at 50.5 points, and is now 50.5 at some books and 51 at others.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Akron College Football Picks
Miami's program is going in the right direction with Chuck Martin at the helm. The Redhawks have been competitive this year thanks in large part to their passing game. Quarterback Andrew Hendrix has thrown for 1,779 yards, and he'll certainly test the Akron defense. Akron is the team with more balance, and I expect them to win this game, but it probably won't be easy. I hate laying two touchdowns in what I believe will be a competitive game. The under has been the way to play Akron of late. I have no strong feeling on the game, but I do like backing the solid under trends posted above, so I'll make the under 51 a 1-Unit selection this week.
Pick: #137- Take Miami (Ohio)/Akron under 51 for One Unit
Season Results: 2 Wins 2 Losses ($-150)
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