NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
by Aaron Smith - 9/10/2014
Fading the Top 25 is back for the third week of the college football season. Week 2 was an awful week for the Big Ten once again. The Big Ten has taken a lot of heat in the media and among fans, and last weekend was an example of how far this once-mighty conference has fallen. Until something changes, the Big Ten deserves all the heat it is taking. On the other hand, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech both deserve plenty of credit for their big wins over the weekend. The Hokies have been off the national scene a bit the past few years, but they look like a team that could be making some noise through the rest of the season.
Week 2 was another down one for the fade selections. While it's certainly disappointing to start off on a low note with this experiment, it's important to remember this is a long season. As you can see at the end of this article, Top 25 teams did very well on the whole in Week 2. We did have a good selection on Virginia Tech as they ended up winning outright as a big underdog. Unfortunately, the other three underdogs didn't perform as well.
Doc's Sports always wants to look for ways to help bettors make money. This year I'm going to be tracking against the spread records of the Associated Press Top 25. How do Top 25 teams do ATS? Are there chances to go against Top 25 teams that are overrated? In this weekly article, I'll make a few picks each week where I fade a team in the Top 25, and I'll keep track of my results so readers can follow along. This is an experiment we will be testing out in 2014, and all plays will be flat bets to win $100 on each game. I may sometimes back teams that are in the Top 25 if they are against another ranked team that I want to fade. At the end of each article, I'll make note of how the Top 25 overall did against the number, and that will be a cumulative figure as the season moves forward.
On to the picks for Week 3:
Play No. 1- Southern Mississippi +48 (#169) vs. Alabama- There's no doubt that Alabama could beat Southern Mississippi by a huge margin here, but we're talking about almost 50 points. Southern Miss isn't a good team, but they also aren't an FCS team. Alabama has some quarterback problems that they need to work out. The Crimson Tide defense hasn't looked as dominant as normal, either. If you go back and look at Alabama over the years, they aren't a team that covers a huge number against weak opponents all that often. I'm not sure Nick Saban's team keeps the foot on the gas enough to cover this massive spread. I'll take all the points and the underdog.
Play No. 2- Boston College +17.5 (#194) vs. USC- USC is coming off a great win at Stanford. What would make them be motivated to go take on a Boston College team that is way down this year? It's a classic letdown spot, and Boston College has a better home-field advantage than most people believe. This game will be played Saturday night in primetime, which should maximize the potential positive effect for the home team. Steve Addazio's team will play hard for him, and this is a large number to cover on the road for a USC team that still has a lot of offensive question marks. The sharp money has already moved the line from 20 points down to this level. I'm siding with the home underdog here.
Play No. 3- Buffalo +33 (#110) vs. Baylor- There is little doubt that Buffalo is badly outclassed here, but remember that Baylor isn't even close to the same team on the road that they are at home. The Bears hobble into this game with Bryce Petty trying to play through cracked bones in his back. Buffalo players will remember the beating they took at Baylor last year, and I think you'll get maximum effort from this Buffalo team as they play under the lights at home and on national television. Baylor is a tough team to bet against because of their powerful offense, but Petty being dinged up should slow them down just enough.
With a number of Top 25 teams getting the week off in Week 3, I'm going to stop at three selections and hope we can build some momentum from this weekend's action.
Fade the Top 25 Selections: 1 Win 6 Losses (-$560)
Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week- 13 Wins 10 Losses
Overall Top 25 ATS Record This Season - 25 Wins (52.1%) 23 Losses (47.9%)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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