NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
by Aaron Smith - 10/28/2014
For the fourth straight week, the Fading the Top 25 Selections were profitable last week. We continue to try to dig out of the hole created early in the year. Ole Miss was our lone loser last week. We cashed in on Tennessee plus the points as well as Syracuse plus the points. As a whole, the Top 25 went 9-11 ATS last week. Looking at this week's schedule, there are quite a few Top 25 teams with a bye week. Still, there are a lot of high-quality Top 25 matchups on the slate.
Doc's Sports always wants to look for ways to help bettors make money. This year I'll be tracking against the spread records of the Associated Press Top 25. How do Top 25 teams do ATS? Are there chances to go against Top 25 teams that may be overrated? In this weekly article, I'll make a few picks each week where I fade a team in the Top 25, and I'll keep track of my results so readers can follow along. This is an experiment we are testing in 2014, and all plays will be flat bets to win $100 on each game. I may sometimes back teams that are in the Top 25 if they are against another ranked team that I want to fade. At the end of each article, I'll make note of how the Top 25 overall did against the number, and that is a cumulative number.
Play #1- Auburn +2.5 (#345) vs. Ole Miss: The Auburn Tigers have been in this situation many times before. Auburn played a disappointing game on the road at Mississippi State, and it ended up costing them. The Tigers know they can ill-afford another loss if they want to get into the four-team playoff at the end of the year. This is a very similar team to last year's squad that nearly won the BCS Championship against Florida State. In fact, the Auburn defense is actually better this year. Bo Wallace has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in Ole Miss' last two games. Wallace is about as inconsistent of a quarterback as you will find. I trust Nick Marshall a lot more than Wallace. In addition to all these things, I think Gus Malzahn is the superior coach in this matchup. Hugh Freeze might have cost his team the game with his indecision at the end of last week's game, and his in-game coaching skills aren't on par with Malzahn's. Both teams are hungry for a win, but I like the Tigers experience as well as their quarterback. I certainly liked this play better when Auburn was a field goal underdog, but I think the Tigers end up winning outright.
Play #2- Temple +7 (#316) vs. East Carolina: Temple has played some poor football in the past couple weeks, which has given us some line value in this game. The Owls have a great opportunity to make some noise this week when they face a Top 25 foe at home. It isn't often that Temple faces a Top 25 team. Last year, the Owls nearly knocked off unbeaten UCF in November. They were 17.5-point underdogs in that game. East Carolina played great during their nonconference schedule this year , but the Pirates have been a bit disappointing inside the American Athletic Conference. They are 0-3 against the spread inside the conference, and they really haven't been close to covering in any of those games. They trailed on the road against lowly USF in the fourth quarter a couple weeks ago. Shane Carden is great for the Pirates, but the strength of this Temple defense is their secondary. Temple's quarterback, P.J. Walker, is a playmaker as well, and I expect him to bounce back from some poor performances of late in this game. The Owls getting a touchdown is the play here.
I'm going to stick with two selections this week. There are far fewer games to choose from than normal because of the amount of teams that have a bye week. There is no need to push the issue. We'll be back again next week with another edition!
Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 15 Wins 16 Losses (-$260)
Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week- 9 Wins 11 Losses
Overall Top 25 ATS Record This Season - 90 Wins (48.1%) 95 Losses (50.8%) 2 Ties (1.1%)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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