NCAA Football Picks and American Athletic Conference Week 10 Betting Report
by Dave Schwab - 10/29/2014
Going against SMU this season has been a profitable proposition, and this past Saturday, in my biggest play of the season, I cashed in on a 5-Unit play in the Mustangs 48-10 loss to Memphis as 23-point home underdogs. I am now 5-4 on the year in my weekly AAC pick for Doc's Sports for a return of +$330 on a $100 wager.
The following is a brief betting report for all matchups in Week 10 of the college football season in the AAC season as well as my top pick for the games. All the betting odds quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Friday, October 31
Cincinnati Bearcats (-4) vs. Tulane Green Wave
Total Line: 56.5
The Bearcats will try and string together their third straight AAC win after knocking off SMU and South Florida. They are now 4-3 straight up on the year with a 3-4 record against the spread. Cincinnati still has one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation behind quarterback Gunner Kiel. It is ranked 12th in the nation in average yards with 322.0 a game.
It has been a slow start for Tulane in its new conference with one SU win over Connecticut to go along with losses to Tulsa and Central Florida. The Green Wave are 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) overall, and the total has stayed "under" in their last three games after going "over" in their first four outings. Tulane's offense is averaging just 18.7 points a game.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Memphis (-24.5)
Total Line: 61.5
The Golden Hurricane are off to a 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) in their initial run through the AAC, and they are just 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) overall. The total has gone over in six of their first seven games. Tulsa's primary issue this season has been a defense that is ranked near the bottom of Division IA in points allowed (40.7).
Memphis has been one of the bigger surprises in the AAC this season after going just 1-7 in conference play last year. The Tigers are 4-3 SU on the year with a 2-1 SU record in AAC play. They have covered ATS in five of the seven games, and the total has gone over in four of those contests. Memphis has one of the better defenses in the AAC that is allowing just 19.3 points a game.
Saturday, November 1
No. 23 East Carolina Pirates (-7) vs. Temple Owls
Total Line: 58.5
The Pirates remain the pride of the AAC as the only team listed in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings. They come into this conference showdown with a SU five-game winning streak, but they have failed to cover in their last three contests. Behind quarterback Shane Carden, East Carolina is ranked third in the nation in average passing yards per game (381.9).
Temple has been another surprise this season with a 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) start after winning just two games all last season. However, the Owls have lost their last two outings both SU and ATS to Houston and Central Florida on the road as underdogs. Despite allowing a combined 65 points in those two losses, Temple's defense is still ranked 18th in the country in points allowed (19.6).
Houston Cougars (-9.5) vs. South Florida Bulls
Total Line: 44
Houston followed up a tough 17-12 loss to UCF in its AAC opener with back-to-back victories against Memphis and Temple to improve to 2-1 SU in conference play and 4-3 SU on the year. It has now covered ATS in four of its last five games, and the total has stayed under in six of seven games this year. Known in the past for a high-powered offense, it has been the Cougars' defense leading the way by allowing just 17.9 points a game.
The Bulls are coming off a 34-17 loss to Cincinnati as 10-point road underdogs. It was the first time they failed to cover in their last five games. The total stayed under the 60-point closing line against the Bearcats, and it has now stayed under in five of their last seven games. That is easy to see with an offense that is ranked 108th in the nation in scoring with an average of 21.1 points a game.
AAC Pick of the Week
Central Florida (-11.5) vs. Connecticut Huskies
Total Line: 38.5
The Knights kept rolling towards a season-ending showdown against East Carolina with last week's 34-14 win over Temple as six-point home favorites. They are now 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in conference play and 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) overall after a slow 0-2 start. Justin Holman has done an adequate job trying to fill Blake Bortles' shoes at quarterback, but it has been the play of Central Florida's defense that has it pointed towards a second straight AAC crown.
Connecticut's SU losing streak reached five games with last week's loss to East Carolina, and it was the first time the Huskies covered ATS this season in the 31-21 loss as heavy 28-point road underdogs. It was also just the second time this season that the offense scored more than 20 points. UConn comes into this game averaging just 14 points a game, and it's hard to see this offense even matching that total against the Knights.
4-Unit Play Take UCF (-11.5) over Connecticut (Saturday, Nov. 1, 12 p.m.)
YTD: 5-4 (+$330)
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