NCAA Football Picks and American Athletic Conference Week 12 Betting Report
by Dave Schwab - 11/12/2014
I took it on the chin in last week's AAC top pick with Houston losing to Tulane 31-24 as a heavy 17.5-point home favorite. That is the way it has gone in this conference all season long as we are still waiting for a team to take control of what has turned into a five-team logjam in the AAC title race.
The following is a brief betting report for all the AAC matchups in Week 12 of the college football season as well as my top pick of the week for Doc's Sports. All the betting odds quoted have been provided by 5Dimes. Doc's Unit Betting System for money management will be used for every play.
Thursday, November, 13
East Carolina Pirates (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Total Line: 68.5
The Pirates are coming off a bye week and looking to get back to their winning ways after suffering a 20-10 loss to Temple as 10-point road favorites. At 6-2 straight up (4-4 against the spread) they are still the cream of the crop in the AAC behind an offense that is ranked third in the nation in passing with 361.3 yards a game. Shane Carden has thrown 18 touchdown passes against just five interceptions, and he is completing 63.7 percent of his pass attempts.
The Bearcats are also in the thick of the AAC title race at 3-1 in conference play. They ran their current winning streak to three games both straight up and against the spread with a 38-14 victory over Tulane two weeks ago as 4.5-point road favorites. This is another team that can move the ball downfield through the air with an average of 308.5 passing yards a game.
Friday, November 14
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Central Florida Knights (-19)
Total Line: 55
Tulsa came up on the losing end in four nonconference games this season, but it improved to 2-3 SU in conference play with last week's 38-28 victory against SMU. The Golden Hurricane could not cover as 14-point home favorites to fall to 3-6 ATS on the year. Their biggest issues have been on the defensive side of the ball with a unit that is allowing an average of 39.2 points a game.
Central Florida has definitely taken a step backwards this season after a very successful 2013 campaign, but it is still in the thick of the conference title race at 3-1 SU on the year. The lone loss was a stunning 37-29 setback to Connecticut on Nov. 1 as a nine-point favorite on the road. This snapped a five-game winning streak in which the Knights went 4-1 ATS.
Saturday, November 15
Memphis Tigers (-10.5) vs. Tulane Green Wave
Total Line: 47.5
Memphis has already qualified for a postseason bowl after going just 3-9 last year, and it brings a SU three-game winning streak into this week's matchup. Unfortunately, the Tigers have not been the best team in the AAC to wager on lately with a 2-4 record ATS in their last six games. The main strength of this team has been a shut-down defense that is holding opponents to 18.7 points a game.
Tulane is one of three teams ( along with East Carolina and Tulsa) to come over from Conference USA this year. The Green Wave are just 3-6 SU (4-5 ATS) on the year, but one of those victories was last Saturday's impressive upset over Houston as heavy road underdogs. They are now 3-1 ATS in their last four contests. Their main problem this season has been finding the end zone on a consistent basis behind an offense that is averaging just 19.6 points a game.
South Florida Bulls (-11) vs. SMU Mustangs
Total Line: 48
The Bulls come off a bye with just one SU win in their last five games. They have failed to cover in their last two games as healthy underdogs in double-digit losses to Cincinnati and Houston. This is another team that has really struggled to put points on the board this season with an average of 19.1 a game. Unfortunately, their defense has not done them any favors, either, by allowing an average of 29.3 points a game.
The only way that South Florida could be favored by a double-digit spread on the road would be if it was playing a really bad team, and it is. The Mustangs are still looking for their first SU win in eight tries, but do not hold your breath waiting for one from quite possibly the worst team in Division IA this year. SMU is ranked dead-last in scoring with an average of 9.6 points a game, not to be outdone by a defense that is ranked dead-last in D-IA in points allowed (46.8).
AAC Pick of the Week
Temple Owls vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-11)
Temple is another AAC squad that is squeezing everything it can out a team that won just two games the year before. The 5-4 Owls have stumbled a bit as of late with just one SU win in their last four games, but that came against East Carolina in a stunning upset at home. They will now have to go on the road against a rival they have not beaten SU in the last 10 meetings. That does not mean they have not been able to play Penn State tough after covering ATS in three of the last four meetings.
Penn State got off to a fast 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) start this season, but it appears to be wearing down with just one win both SU and ATS in its last five games. The Lions struggled to get by Indiana 13-7 as 6.5-point road favorites their last time out behind an offense that has averaged just 15 points during this five-game slide. This lack of production coupled with a Temple defense that is still ranked 10th in the nation in points allowed (18.1) sets the stage for a grinder in Happy Valley that will stay closer than 11 points.
4-Unit Play Take Temple (+11) over Penn State (Saturday, Nov. 15, Noon EST)
YTD: 5-6 (-$550)
Doc's Sports is offering a great deal for new clients - you can get $60 worth of free college football picks with no obligation. No credit card is needed, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. See what all the hype is about with $60 worth of free college football picks by clicking here . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Sept. 12-13
- 49th-Year Anniversary - Football Picks Special
- Potential College Football Start Options During Covid-19 Pandemic
- 2020 Heisman Trophy Predictions
- National Championship Game Picks for Clemson vs. LSU
- Strong Underdogs for Bowl Game Betting: Possible Moneyline Paydays
- Expert College Bowl Game Handicapping: Coaching Uncertainty
- NCAA Bowl Game Wagering: Toughest Games to Handicap
- College Bowl Game Betting Advice: Biggest Mismatches
- NCAA Football Betting Odds: Championship Week Line Movements & Last-Minute News