NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Key Matchups, Stats and Betting Trends
by Dave Schwab - 1/28/2014
We are down to a winner-take-all showdown in the NFL between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos in this season’s Super Bowl. Both of these teams came into the postseason as the top team in their conference, and each followed suit by beating the teams they were supposed to in order to punch their ticket to this game.
This year’s NFL title will be decided on the field at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, but football is still a game a matchups that can be analyzed through key stats and betting trends that oftentimes help to predict the eventual outcome of the game. All NFL betting odds have been provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, Feb. 2
The matchup at the top of the list in this year’s Super Bowl is Seattle’s No. 1 defense going up against Peyton Manning and the No. 1 offense in the league. When you break these numbers down a fit further, you find that the Seahawks allowed an average of 172 passing yards and 273.6 total yards a game, which were both ranked first in the league. They gave up an average of 14.4 points a game during the regular season, which was also ranked first. Seattle did hold Drew Brees and the New Orleans’ offense to 15 points in the divisional playoffs despite allowing 409 yards of total offense.
Denver averaged 37.9 points a game, which was the highest total in the league, but it only eclipsed that total once in its last nine games, including playoff victories over San Diego and New England. Manning threw for a record 5,477 yards during the regular season, which was an average of 342.3 yards a game, but he was held to 230 yards against the Chargers. He bounced back with 400 yards passing against the Patriots in the AFC title game while completing 74.4 percent of his throws.
Another big matchup is Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch against Denver’s rush defense. Lynch has already put up two impressive performances in the postseason after rushing for 1,257 yards on 301 carries in his first 16 games this year. He ran all over the Saints with 140 yards on 28 attempts and he gained 109 yards on 22 carries against the 49ers.
The Broncos were ranked a respectable eighth against the run in the regular season; allowing an average of 101.6 yards a game. In their two playoff games, they gave up just 64 yards to San Diego on the ground and held New England to 64 yards rushing on just 16 attempts. Denver’s ability to win this game could directly hinge on its ability to take away Seattle’s running game as well.
If you take a look at some of the betting trends for each team, you find that Seattle has gone 13-4 against the spread in its last 17 games against a team with a straight up winning record. It is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games following a SU win. The Seahawks went 12-6 ATS this year.
The Broncos went 11-6-1 ATS in their first 18 games this season, and they covered in eight of their last 11 contests. They split their first two playoffs games 1-1 ATS, but looking back at their last 10 games in the postseason, they are just 3-7 ATS.
Some of the strongest betting trends for this matchup favor the “under” on the total line. The total has stayed under in the Seahawks’ last seven games overall, and it has stayed under in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed under in five of Denver’s last seven games following an ATS win, and it has stayed under in its last five games overall.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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