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College Football Handicapping: Florida Gators QB Situation

by - 10/14/2015

Kelvin Taylor Florida Gators

It was a crazy Monday in the world of college football - two high-profile coaches gone for different reasons, and the quarterback of an unbeaten team suspended for a year after testing positive for PEDs. It's the last of those - Florida's Will Grier - that we will focus on for now. Seeing a player of any kind suspended for PEDs is rare in college football, so when it is not just any player but the star starting quarterback of a division leader we really need to gather our thoughts and figure out what it means. Here are six thoughts:

Grier had been very good, but not consistently great: Grier has had two very good games in six outings. The first against New Mexico State hardly counts. The second, though, came against Ole Miss, and he was amazing. He completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. Can't be much better than that - and it was the biggest reason that his team crushed the highly-ranked Rebels. In his other four games, though, he has been much less sharp. He has four touchdowns and three interceptions in those games, and he completed a lower percentage of passes than you would hope. He can be great and obviously likes a big stage, but to assume that the team is lost without him would be a mistake.

Harris has experience: Treon Harris will be the new starter. That's not the disaster it could be. He started half of the season last year. Though he didn't exactly challenge for the Heisman, he did decently playing for a lousy team. Most significantly, he limited mistakes - just four interceptions compared to nine touchdowns. He also looked good in his playing time in the opener this year against New Mexico State. He has been the clear backup, but at least he's not a raw rookie.

Coach and OC obvious fast workers: New coach Jim McElwain and his new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier have clearly had a huge impact on this team since the start of their tenure. The offense is dramatically improved, and it's not just because of Grier. The two have good chemistry and should be able to adapt to the new starter effectively. When a change has to be made in less-than-ideal circumstances, the impact often comes down to the coaching staff. This staff has earned high marks so far, so we can give them the benefit of the doubt.

Timing isn't great: There is never a good time for something like this, but this is really bad. The transition happens the week of a trip to LSU, and then after a bye week they play Georgia. After that the schedule - at least the nonconference schedule - is very soft - Vanderbilt and then suddenly coachless South Carolina. It would have been nice for Harris to have a chance to ease into his new reality instead of splashing into the deep end. On the plus side, though, the team certainly knows how important these two games are to the season, so maybe it improves focus and gives the team something to rally around.

Can't know distraction factor until we see it: Handicappers and fans have the bad habit of reading too much into pretty much every situation they see. In a case like this it would be easy to assume that it could have a big impact on the team - positive or negative. The fact is, though, that we have no idea how the team will respond. We aren't in the locker room, and we don't know how the team felt about Grier, feels about Harris, or how they will react to what Grier did. They could go into a tailspin, or they could act like nothing happened. Until we see them on the field we will know nothing, and it's important to quit being an amateur psychologist and remember that.

They still command the SEC East: Things are far from bleak in the SEC East for Florida. They have a two-win advantage on the field and have just four to play. The games against Vandy and South Carolina should be gimmes. That likely means, then, that a win over either Georgia or LSU would be enough to secure the division title. There is no reason at all for this squad to panic, nor do the people watching them or betting on them need to. They are in the driver's seat regardless of who is under center.

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